2018 Midterms odds

I have yet to find any sportsbooks offering odds for the 2018 Midterms so hypothetically as of right now what would you predict the odds would be in the House and Senate?

For me I would set the line at - 2500 GOP for the Senate. Even in a worst case scenario where both Flake and Heller go down, Democrats are stretched too thin and have way too many Trump states to defend to flip that 3rd seat and not lose any seats of their own. As of right now I definately see McCaskill, Donnerly and Manchin going down and possibly even Heidkampt and Tester. Also Dems have almost no shot at taking the next most vulnerable GOP seat, Ted Cruz's. This is the ultimate of longshots.

In the House the Dems have much more of a chance, Speaker Ryan has hitched his wagons to Trump full bore and is deeply unpopular. When Trump went behind Congress back and cut a deal with Dems Ryan got all the blame from the Conservative base. Add in Bannon's Civil War against the Establishment and Ryan should be in a world of hurt. Look for a ton of primary challenges next year. But even with all that the GOP has a built in inherent advantage with gerrymandered districts that lean heavily Republican. The Democrats would need a massive amount of no shows on election day to flip these seats. Even with Trump's deep unpopularity and Congress inaction 23 seats might just be too high a hill to climb. Especially given how unpopular the Democrats are as well. I see Dems making decent gains in the mid teens but not enough.

GOP senators just past a 25% approval Tax Reform Bill, which is a very bad bill hurting mid and low income families and only to give big fat help to the 1 or 2% of the most rich people in the US, on top of former national security adviser Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to the Special prosecution. Also Donald J Trump and GOP will very likely try to repeal and replace Affordable Care Act again in 2018, and provide with their own Health care bill with a 18 to 20% approval rate.  Not sure how 2018 Midterms will exactly pan out but we could see a Democrats surge in next November.

The easiest way to evaluate the plan is to point out 78% of Americans earn $30,000 or less. That means this plan is geared to save roughly $400 at best for more than three-fourths of the country while the significant chunks are reserved for the wealthy. Meanwhile, you're being told the wealthy will create jobs so it's necessary. Real growth comes from a need for a company to expand, not because the bottom line is increased. Most business owners will pocket the extra money, invest in the stock market or possibly give the very top executives huge bonuses.

I didn't even mention that let's say in theory these companies do hire. What jobs are actually being created and do they provide enough income for an individual to live comfortably? The answer is usually crappy jobs with limited pay that people are less than enthused about.

Poor people don’t pay anything in taxes, how could they save a lot under any plan? 

Quote Originally Posted by sicknesscity:



The easiest way to evaluate the plan is to point out 78% of Americans earn $30,000 or less. That means this plan is geared to save roughly $400 at best for more than three-fourths of the country while the significant chunks are reserved for the wealthy. Meanwhile, you're being told the wealthy will create jobs so it's necessary. Real growth comes from a need for a company to expand, not because the bottom line is increased. Most business owners will pocket the extra money, invest in the stock market or possibly give the very top executives huge bonuses.

I didn't even mention that let's say in theory these companies do hire. What jobs are actually being created and do they provide enough income for an individual to live comfortably? The answer is usually crappy jobs with limited pay that people are less than enthused about.

Well, I was basing that off what families who earn $25,000 would have supposedly gotten under the tax plan, but that was an article from a few days ago.  They've been cobbling this thing together and amending it or adding in the margins randomly.  I saw someone point out that it took 8 months under Reagan and there was clearly a finalized version that was given to everyone to read, rather than rushing a vote with a bill that still didn't have a final version up until the very end. 

There are more democrat donors in the top 1-2%. 

Waves have turned against the GOP? 

Not exactly correct. Two indisputable facts noone argues with are that 1) It explodes the national debt and 2) the wealthy love it and are very confident it will work to their advantage. 

GOP -2500 to hold the Senate?