Putting my week 2 plays up now. I'm off on Mondays now post Labor day. I've been at it since 6:30 am. It's easy to remember why I like look ahead lines so much in the nfl, kinda the only way to make a buck imo.
I rarely bet week 1 but did this year, I bombed but don't care. It's in the rear view now.
Lions -3(-110) *1.10/1.00
Glad I put this in when I did, as Seattle looked like shit. Posted it earlier in this thread.
Steelers ML(+110) *1.00/1.10
They owe me. If they lose b2b home games to start the year then so be it. The Browns looked super vs the Bengals right? Look at the boxscore. At home, vs a team that traditionally starts slow, and vs a QB who had zero pre season. Starting LT Jack Conklin is on IR. I think they'll have a tough time running in this game.
Texans ML(+100) *1.00
Two rookie QB's. Richardson got his knee banged up late, and will play in his first road game in the NFL. The Texans had a handful of key players who sat in week 1. I'll take a stab on a young and hungry team vs an organization constantly surrounded with controversy and poor management.
Also, the Colts had a funky ass defensive TD vs the Jags. The boxscore doesn't match the stats.
GB@ATL U40.5(-110) *1.00/.91
Jordan Love has yet to face a pass rush. Thinking he will here. The Packers might have the most under rated defenses in the league. I think that Ridder stands zero to any chance getting yards through the air vs this secondary. They should lean on the run with their 2 RB's, probably the best duo in the nfl. Aaron Jones pulled a hammy vs the Bears. Love has 2 nfl starts in his career, Ridder has 5. I see a low scoring ugly game. The spread of +1 or pick currently helps support my theory. No one is running away in this one.
Bears +3(-108) *2.00/1.85
Bears ML(+140) *.50/.70
Not a homer pick, more of a fade of the Bucs here. Look at the Mayfield's boxscore, maybe the luckiest win/upset of the week. And more importantly, vs a really shitty Vikings team. We know this through dvoa and pythagorean wins last year. They were lucky AF in 2022.
First downs: Bucs 16, Vikes 18
Drives: Bucs 12, Vikes 11
Yards: 242 vs 369
YPP: 3.6 vs 5.9
Turnovers: Bucs 0, Vikes 3
T.O.P. almost even
The look ahead was Bears -1. A 4 pt swing.
The Bears looked disjointed vs the Pack. They were unprepared, unbuttoned to say the least. And that struck me as unusual for this coaching staff in particular. If you guys remember last year, as shitty as the Bears were, I never complained about the coaching and prep. They played football the right way and rarely committed penalties.
I think that gets cleaned up this week. It was an embarrassment. The Packers coaching was well ahead of the Bears in week 1. I read that Luke Getsy's play calling was predicted by LaFleur. As Getsy was once a part of his staff and that he didn't change much from last year's 2 games.
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