Posted:
#751
looking like a really really bad finish to the day. like really bad
Sat 9/29 NJPORKY's 2H NCAA System Plays
Posted:
#752
Here are all the posted plays since I came home and took over thread at 6pm:
UNDER 23 2H NorthTexas/FAU LOSER
UNDER 24 2H FSU/S.Florida LOSER
BOISE ST 2H -9.5 LOSER
Arkansas St 2H +1
UNDER 27 2H Arkansas St/Western Kentucky
UNDER 28.5 2H Texas Tech/Iowa St
Kentucky 2H +10
Toledo 2H +2.5
UL Lafayette 2H -1
OVER 28 2H UL Lafayette/Florida Int
Texas San Antonio 2H +2.5
F...K THE HATERS!!! KEEP IT GOIN PORKY 
Posted:
#768
Quote Originally Posted by NJPorky:
Wisconsin @ Nebraska
Full game odds were Nebraska -12 and 53
At the half, 20-10 Wisconsin
2H lines should be Nebraska -22 and 23
2H lines are Nebraska -10 and 26.5
Thus we have
Wisconsin +10 2H as a play
Wisconsin @ Nebraska
Full game odds were Nebraska -12 and 53
At the half, 20-10 Wisconsin
2H lines should be Nebraska -22 and 23
2H lines are Nebraska -10 and 26.5
Thus we have
Wisconsin +10 2H as a play
I love this play specially now that the line dropped to 8 and 7.5... They want us to pound Nebraska
Posted:
#772
Quote Originally Posted by jeast:
I don't chime in to often on here, but I have been around long enough to see a few things. This isn't Porky's first year, obviously. If the system he uses doesn't work, he wouldn't continue to use it. He doesn't want to lose money just as much as we all don't.
In regard to above, I don't know why this is considered a "middle system". It's nothing of the sort. The system says that, based on first half performance, follow that performance as an expected second half result. The original line is where vegas wants you to think the end result will finish. Regardless of what any of us want to think, the second half line is basically predetermined as very close to half of the opening line, with very minor adjustments. When the first half performance differs drastically from that, assume that the second half performance will mirror that of the first. That's why you look for a deviation of 10, to give enough value to pull the trigger.
Your explanation 2 fits exactly what I am saying.
I don't chime in to often on here, but I have been around long enough to see a few things. This isn't Porky's first year, obviously. If the system he uses doesn't work, he wouldn't continue to use it. He doesn't want to lose money just as much as we all don't.
In regard to above, I don't know why this is considered a "middle system". It's nothing of the sort. The system says that, based on first half performance, follow that performance as an expected second half result. The original line is where vegas wants you to think the end result will finish. Regardless of what any of us want to think, the second half line is basically predetermined as very close to half of the opening line, with very minor adjustments. When the first half performance differs drastically from that, assume that the second half performance will mirror that of the first. That's why you look for a deviation of 10, to give enough value to pull the trigger.
Your explanation 2 fits exactly what I am saying.
The theory on the middles being over valued is as follows:
- even number of betters prior to the game on the dog and the favorite
- if the favorite is doing well, the favorite betters may dis-proportionally take the dog to guarantee a break even. dog betters will lay off
- opposite is true if the dog is doing well
Porky's system goes opposite. I have no idea if what I have above holds water in practice, but it's logical to me at least.
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