I have read many posts on this subject and this is my first time posting on the subject, basically because I have been trying to weed through my thoughts (literally) and come to an ultamate conclusion on this game in my own head.
I was dumbfounded when the clock hit 0:00. Yes I did bet on Pitt. Yes I did lose 1100 (instead of winning 1000, which is a 2100 swing loss in my mind) when all was said and done. Yes, I do believe it is important that this game and officiating crew be investigated by an outside source. With that being said, I don't believe it will ever happen, however the way this game played out and all the attention it has recieved makes me hope that someone will take action on this, but I don't think it won't be good ol Roger Godell after listening to him on the Jim Rome show today. However, we as bettors can definatly learn from this:
Was this game fixed/rigged/tampered with/etc....Well I think that we can all agree that it was beyond a reasonable doubt. Regardless of which side you had you have to admit that was a touchdown and should have counted. Every spectator that watched the play will most likely agree on that. So it is without a doubt in my own mind that the referee could clearly see that there was no illegial forward pass on that particular play. So why not give him the touchdown and get the game over with? Well I think we all know the answer to that....
However, there is something to be learned from this, and it is very real. When capping games, we MUST factor this in with our ultimate reasoning on a game. Now, I believe that it is impossible to fix every game, however it is not unreasonable to think that one or two of the biggest games (as far as wagering goes) in a given week could have some type of bias involved, which is almost always impllemented by the officials. What interested me about this particular game is that :
-74% of all bets were on Pittsburgh (according to SportsInsights, which I pay a monthly fee for, as they take a running average of SportsInteraction.com, WagerWeb, Skybook, BetUs, Carib, SportBet, and Sportsbook.com - these are REAL numbers from REAL sportsbooks; they are not a consensus where people are submitting picks and not wagering real money on them such as Wagerline which is affiliated with covers.)
-A whopping 87% of all parlays that had some sort of action in this game had Pittsburgh -5.5. "Sportsbooks" may not have won A LOT of money off this but it SAVED them from paying out about 4.5X the amount they won due to it being the last leg of many parlays.
Regardless of the outcome of the game, one must still ask why were 13 penalties called on Pitt and only 1 on SD? I understand that Pitt may have committed more penalties, but seriously, 13 to 1? I can't remember the last time I have seen a lopsided margin like that in the NFL. These are professionals, and while they still will commit penalties, the ratio should be much closer to between 50/50 to at a MAXIMUM of 80%/20%, not the 92.8%/7.2% that it was (13/14)...
So, my point of this whole thing is to NEVER put this game behind me. I will not complain about losing my hard earned money on a game that ultimately I should have never bet, but I did and I had 2100 stole from me, but that is in the past - I know this is gambling and to think this is the first time this has happened, one would have to be very foolish...
This goes on and will continue to go on as long as money is involved. There is nothing we can do about it...however, I will NEVER forget this game as it really opened my eyes as to how much money and Vegas (for lack of a better word) can affect anything and anyone on this planet.
In the future I will refrain from making large wagers on very "Public" and heavily bet games. This was a 10 unit play for me, twice my average but half of my Maximum, and I consider it to be a lot of money. I will keep my eye open for these types of situations to come around again, and try to go with the "fix"...however it will be something that needs to be studied over a period of a season or so...and it is not simply "fading the public" - I believe that many things must line up for the NFL to even consider "helping" those with a large monetary interest in the game - and one of the biggest IMO are those 4pm EST favorites that are the last leg of popular parlays...This stat jumped out the most to me and it will be something I will be studying....As for next week, I will be watching the following games very closely:
Washington @ Seattle +3.5 - While 77% are on and 90% of parlays with this game included have Washington, there are only 8150 bets on this game from all participating sportsbooks. Compared to:
NYG @ Arizona +3 which has 12,464 bets currently placed at a good sample of sportsbooks. This game will be a much more publically bet game IMO than Washington @ Seattle. NYG are currently getting a whopping 86% of the bets and 84% of parlay bets. This equates to much more action on this game as opposed to Wash/Sea. I personally like Wash to crush Seattle on Sunday, and I have seen it many times where one game goes to the higher %, while the other goes the opposite way - I have been looking to unlock this phenominon for quite some time and I believe that I am getting closer...I believe ARIZONA is the best bet here, not only because of these %, but because I slept at a Holiday Inn Express last night....(I also like the matchup with the WR's that Arizona has vs. the Giants secondary)
Wow, I started typing this 30 min ago! At least I have it off my chest now...I feel much better!
By the way...did anyone happen to catch a glimpse of the Pitt sideline after the TD was scored? Was it me, or did Tomlin actually look mad that Polamalau scored? I also saw a shot of Big Ben and he looked like just saw a fuckin ghost after the TD...and after the Ref made his excuse and then signaled penalty declined, TD, Tomlin looked PISSED both during the review and after the call...I am not implying anything...just wondering if anyone else saw what I saw???????????????????????