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Please stop telling people to "Move On" from the PITT/SD game.

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Posted: #51
is this STILL HERE? OMG PEOPLE PLEASE
 
Legend
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Posted: #52
If anyone wants to discuss sportsinsights, public / sharp money, etc....
 
Start a new thread about it - this is not the place to drag on a conversation that has nothing to do with the topic - a topic that people obviously want to go away.
 
Believe me, I have plenty to say about sportsinsights and this public / sharp bullshit - and will ask you to explain some things to me that nobody has ever been able to explain.
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Posted: #53

YES SIR I GOT IT

 
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Posted: #54
I believe the common misconception is that people can 'fade the public' and make money by choosing only games where the away team is recieving over 70% of the bets and there is a reverse in the line movement of a game...this is completely false....
 
In my HUMBLE opinion, there are spots that you can make money in this situation, but not every time...I know from a detailed history that if you were to play the way I described above on every day EXCEPT SATURDAY and SUNDAY (for football of course) then you would be hitting at over a 60% clip (the secluded games are where the most amount of mone is lost...think about it) - so one must ask, "Why doesn't everyone do this when we would all make money this way?"  (Take Miami @ GA Tech tonight - 71% on MIA +3.5, GA was favorite, little or no movement, GA wins by 18)   Well of course we all know the answer - We enjoy gambling - If you didn't enjoy it, why the hell would you waste your hard earned money on it? 
I believe that over 95% of people that wager could not discipline themselves to stick to a system like that.  That is why when some people look for the simple solution, such as blindly fading the public, they only apply it to the best "sample" that they chose to and they wind up losing fom that because the majority of games are on Saturday and Sunday.  
So, with that said, I would be happy to answer any of your questions Vanzack, based on my observations over the years...I will never have all the answers, but I can provide insight in to what I have witnesed, and I believe that is what Covers is all about.... 
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by BarryDingle31:

Bling:  It's not much but I haven't bet since Sunday Night, and for the record I did not bet Pitt/SD,



Sure you didn't
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by BarryDingle31:




You are aware that the NFL is going to award the Steelers 6 extra points if the tie-breaker does occur right? 



Negative, the NFL is not going to give the Steelers any points if that tie breaker becomes relevant. 
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by johnnybunique:

I believe the common misconception is that people can 'fade the public' and make money by choosing only games where the away team is recieving over 70% of the bets and there is a reverse in the line movement of a game...this is completely false....
 
In my HUMBLE opinion, there are spots that you can make money in this situation, but not every time...I know from a detailed history that if you were to play the way I described above on every day EXCEPT SATURDAY and SUNDAY (for football of course) then you would be hitting at over a 60% clip (the secluded games are where the most amount of mone is lost...think about it) - so one must ask, "Why doesn't everyone do this when we would all make money this way?"  (Take Miami @ GA Tech tonight - 71% on MIA +3.5, GA was favorite, little or no movement, GA wins by 18)   Well of course we all know the answer - We enjoy gambling - If you didn't enjoy it, why the hell would you waste your hard earned money on it? 
I believe that over 95% of people that wager could not discipline themselves to stick to a system like that.  That is why when some people look for the simple solution, such as blindly fading the public, they only apply it to the best "sample" that they chose to and they wind up losing fom that because the majority of games are on Saturday and Sunday.  
So, with that said, I would be happy to answer any of your questions Vanzack, based on my observations over the years...I will never have all the answers, but I can provide insight in to what I have witnesed, and I believe that is what Covers is all about.... 

Simple question.

Not opinion, not your observation - I want statistics.  Tell me a situation where sportsinsights works, tell me what that situation is, tell me the numbers, and tell me the sample size.

Example:

When there is 72% or greater on one side on a weekday game, and the line moves agains the percentage by 1 point or more, the underdog is 81% over the past 7 years.

Nobody has been able to do this because its always everyones opinion or guess when to use the numbers and when not to use the numbers, on what days, if the sun is shining, etc....

I want statistics.  Then when you give me stats, I will tell you why they are corellated but not causation.  But all anyone can give me is things like "you have to know when to use the numbers" or "you cant use them for every game" or "you will go above 60% by fading the public" etc....  Absolutely useless.

Oh, and while you are at it, you might want to try and explain why you think any numbers at sportsinsights are valid, why any sportsbook would give away those numbers, and why you dont think it is a great business model to have any numbers that people will pay for if you extend the myth that they are somehow useful.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #58
The past is only the future with the lights on.
 
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Posted: #59
if you can't move on, u need to stop gambling. bottom line.  if you can't beat vegas, don't try to beat it.  if your wife cheat on u n can't move on, divorce her.  wtf can you do??  this is so stupid.  i don't know y everyone still talking about this.  so, if you can get 32 million ppl to vote to fix this problem, you think they'll do it?? please drop this. its so stupid.
 
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Posted: #60

If you had Pitt improve your capping, because you capped it wrong. Maybe Kaeding was in on the fix. He missed a field goal that he never misses that would have negated this whole argument.

Strange things happen in garbage time. It was luck/unlucky depending on which side you took.
 
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Posted: #61
Get on.
 
Move over it.
 
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Posted: #62

Quote Originally Posted by BarryDingle31:

I'm sick of seeing people write in people's threads about the Pitt/SD game to "Move On" or "Get Over It". You guys are starting to piss me off.


Thats like your wife telling you to "Get Over" the fact that she cheated on you with your best friend.  It happened you can't change it. but doesn't mean you're gonna get over it.


It's true you can't change the past, but you can learn from it.  That game was very strange and it was made in a way that the only thing affected was the POINT SPREAD.  We should all learn something from this before we just simply "Move On"



Just like you can't look at your buddy the same way anymore, you shouldn't be able to look at the NFL the same either until a  good explanation is given.     Or the truth be told, NFL games are no different than the WWF.

i guess u are going to say something about cincy and pitt game right. why marvin lewis kicked that field goal.  everything is a conspiracy if it does not go your way. shut the fock up with ur get over it.  its true get the fock over it and live on.  there are more questionable calls in the past i cannot explain or referees. if this happened at the half or any other quarter this wouldnt even be an issue. becuase it happeneed at the time of the game of the cover everybody is being cry babies about.  this had better be the last cry baby thread i see on this site because u guys are ruining the threads here





 
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Posted: #63
What I'll never understand is people who think that Pitt was the wrong side and if you had Pitt you capped it wrong.  This is clearly not the case.
 
If you think that Pitt was the wrong side, then answer this question for me.  What would be the line in this game if you KNEW before it started that the following would happen?
 
Team A has 400+ yards of offense, 300+ from its QB, 100+ from its RB, and 125 from its WR.  Team A also had 24 first downs and zero turnovers.  Team A also dominated time of posession.
 
Team B had 215 yards of offense, 159 from its QB and 59 from its RB.  Team B had 18 first downs and had 3 turnovers.
 
What would your expert capping skills tell you the line should be for Team A in that scenario?
 
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Posted: #64
bdwah,

So I guess the Jets were a fix last week too. Moss didnt really get his toes in bounds on the last play. The refs were in on it. New England had 500 yards in that game and lost.

Off the top of my head I'm pretty sure that WVA outgained SFla by 200 yards when they lost to them last September.
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by BDWah:

What I'll never understand is people who think that Pitt was the wrong side and if you had Pitt you capped it wrong.  This is clearly not the case.
 
If you think that Pitt was the wrong side, then answer this question for me.  What would be the line in this game if you KNEW before it started that the following would happen?
 
Team A has 400+ yards of offense, 300+ from its QB, 100+ from its RB, and 125 from its WR.  Team A also had 24 first downs and zero turnovers.  Team A also dominated time of posession.
 
Team B had 215 yards of offense, 159 from its QB and 59 from its RB.  Team B had 18 first downs and had 3 turnovers.
 
What would your expert capping skills tell you the line should be for Team A in that scenario?

 

Team A  -1

 
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Posted: #66
wow this guys pissed sounds like you should just kick your friends asss and leave that whoooooreeeeee
 
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Posted: #67
 
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Posted: #68
I remember plenty of bad beats.....usc last weekend pitt last weekend   army-navy.years ago   the drive the fumble .... allstar mlb tie??????    I read somewhere it was a 64 million swing in favor of vegas as opposed to a 32 million loss.  Makes perfect sense to me they are not going to PAY most of the people in any certain given time. PITTSBURGH is a heavy betted favorite and has been since the mid 70's Hey with the economy the way it is vegas has to try an turn a profit....hell xmas is coming!
 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by tomMiEe:

if you can't move on, u need to stop gambling. bottom line.  if you can't beat vegas, don't try to beat it.  if your wife cheat on u n can't move on, divorce her.  wtf can you do??  this is so stupid.  i don't know y everyone still talking about this.  so, if you can get 32 million ppl to vote to fix this problem, you think they'll do it?? please drop this. its so stupid.

 

Perfectly stated...and I bet on Pitt.

 
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Posted: #70
This is a long show...
 
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Posted: #71
 Still enjoying the long show... GREAT VALUE!!
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by BarryDingle31:

Now, these Ref's have hard decisions to make.. Someone offers them $1,000,000.00  cash to make a couple bogus calls so a team can cover a spread, what are they to do?  Sure most of them will say no, but it only takes one to accept.  For the people offering them the money, 1 million is only 1 percent of the 100 Million wagered on the game.   Money makes the world go round, and as gamblers, we all know this.

this is abusrd,  please do the math to explain how any entity would risk 1,000,000usd on this type of situation.  first, you need a entity that has well over 1,000,000usd in exposure to a given result, then you need an entity with the exact person in the exact place to  execute such a plan, then you need a situation to present itself, and then you need "your resource" to be in a position to manipulate the result.  yep,  sounds pretty foolproof to me, a can't miss proposition.  and please don't trot out this 100 million crap, the actual number is likely less than 10 million world wide.

fwiw, i only handicap the handicappers in pari-mutual wagering, because that's the only area in which the handicapper has complete autonomy over the odds.

 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by Fpronk:

 Still enjoying the long show... GREAT VALUE!!
can i sit down, and enjoy the show with you bro? yeah it funny and long show.. enjoy the popcorn bro
 
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Posted: #74
well when you bet on a horse the jockey falls off the horse you don't get your money back there, sorta like the same thing here and you have to clear your mind and go out this weekend. 
 
 
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