NBA MON 031609 early thoughts - value hunting

Ax your hard work does not go unnoticed, it's greatly appriciated.

 

Some additional info to kick around. The MGM/Mirage books just moved the #'s on the NJN/DEN game tonight. Game has also been circled through out Las Vegas.

 

Den -14.5 o/u 203.5, every dollar has been coming in on Den & under after game openners were Den -9.5 & 208.

Oh man, slim pick'ens and actually a little value there.  can't foreclose on this opportunity if it presents itself.   that's me in the mirror punching myself

Thank you sir...this is very timely info.  That's alot of $$$ moving these.  If you hear anymore, please let us know...thanks again.

Thanks axp....i won't buy(wish a woman  could tell  us  that) and will wait to see if 5d sets it at 195

Yeah, was joking of course - got run out and will be back. I'm going to do a little arm chair stuff w/ what's out on the table.

BTW, No/Hous is tracking at 2.6 Over the total of 182, Overs of 2.1-2.9 are 7-3 in the system over the past month of my monitoring.

Hey Ax. you dont know me, just wanted to thank you for your post. Very helpfull. Your neighbor. clkclass Methuen

here's a little insight i got this morning.....

 

vince carter with harris in the line-up dating back to nov has average 29.05 points a game on back to back nights on the road

 

in that span they are 11-3 against the spread with those team

on the road

 

that last stat don't reflect the totals it reflects the line coverage

 

i think without harris in the line-up he is going to shoot alot of shots tonight.........denvers perimeter d is otrocious (mike tyson accent)

 

 

 

Afternoon everyone. Being a noobie I'd like to know how much the last 4 to 5 games played by each team (not head to head) factors into your o/u calculations. I haven't run any numbers yet, but I would think teams recent play would be a factor when analyzing the numbers? Please let me know if I'm way off base on my thinking.

 

Thanks, G

imo. i think ToR/ChAr Under 194 has a lot of value.

if the denver game stays close it will go over......if its a blowout it will go under.......i think

Char-tor up to 194.5 on 5d....i'm biting    Thanks axp and everyone.This is my only play along woth atl-wash 1st period over 1.5 goals

oops..hit send too fast.That atl-wash play is in hockey.I have been doing well on those 1p overs.aj pierzynski and   superbeets were hot doing those and got me hooked   GL to all. 

This is also going to answer PnP's Q.  Even at 195, I'm iffy on this game...if you noticed last night, I didn't establish a buy-in number for this game.  There's just so many factors to consider other than just being 7 points off the number.  Please play this at your own risk if the number does hit 195.

curious what you come up with KB

slice, you're adding fuel to my fire for the NOT under play on this game!!!

I have to say, doing my own thing, 195 seems pretty high.  The cats are not a high scoring offense combined with their defensive pressure and being at home needing the win, I gotta think the craptors will be in the tank on this game and under looks pretty good.  I'm thinking 94-84 type game here.  With the accuscore trend being 5 pts and could reach 6 if the line hits 195, I'm trending to the under here.

 

I'm not touching the NO/Hou Under 182, too many factors in on this one and the numbers point to an over for me but it is close.

 

Methuen!!!! right up 93...thank you sir