the lines have been so erratic today i go to lunch to return to see lines moved 2 full points in the span of 30 mins scares me from playing many things :|
from playing anything at all.
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Quote Originally Posted by jim844:
the lines have been so erratic today i go to lunch to return to see lines moved 2 full points in the span of 30 mins scares me from playing many things :|
Afternoon everyone. Being a noobie I'd like to know how much the last 4 to 5 games played by each team (not head to head) factors into your o/u calculations. I haven't run any numbers yet, but I would think teams recent play would be a factor when analyzing the numbers? Please let me know if I'm way off base on my thinking.
Thanks, G
For me personally...this shows me momentum in either direction. This is the statistical analysis I refer to (as the regulars know), as the 'what have you done for me lately" factor. In stats, it's called exponential smoothing. You are not off base at all. Now it's up to you to determine how much weight you want to give this data. GL
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Quote Originally Posted by Granpa:
Afternoon everyone. Being a noobie I'd like to know how much the last 4 to 5 games played by each team (not head to head) factors into your o/u calculations. I haven't run any numbers yet, but I would think teams recent play would be a factor when analyzing the numbers? Please let me know if I'm way off base on my thinking.
Thanks, G
For me personally...this shows me momentum in either direction. This is the statistical analysis I refer to (as the regulars know), as the 'what have you done for me lately" factor. In stats, it's called exponential smoothing. You are not off base at all. Now it's up to you to determine how much weight you want to give this data. GL
Further validating the Tor/Cha Under play, last game they played each other was in Toronto on 11/26/08 they scored by quarter:
49,48,46,36 for 179
Despite Toronto shooting 50% from the field and with Bosh scoring 39!
That was still 15 points short of tonight's line which meant at least a 51 pt 4th quarter. If this game is anywhere close in the 4th, knowing Charlotte MUST win this game, it will be defensive lockdown time.
That's it for me:
1. Toronto doesnt shoot 50% on the road
2. Bosh doesnt have 39 tonight
3. Charlotte in a must win situation against a sub .500 team
Only 2 games this season: 179 and 168
My POD going on Tor/Char U194 or more if you can get it. I'm holding for 195 at my book cause i see the majority of books at 194.5 and we know pub's love overs.
0
Further validating the Tor/Cha Under play, last game they played each other was in Toronto on 11/26/08 they scored by quarter:
49,48,46,36 for 179
Despite Toronto shooting 50% from the field and with Bosh scoring 39!
That was still 15 points short of tonight's line which meant at least a 51 pt 4th quarter. If this game is anywhere close in the 4th, knowing Charlotte MUST win this game, it will be defensive lockdown time.
That's it for me:
1. Toronto doesnt shoot 50% on the road
2. Bosh doesnt have 39 tonight
3. Charlotte in a must win situation against a sub .500 team
Only 2 games this season: 179 and 168
My POD going on Tor/Char U194 or more if you can get it. I'm holding for 195 at my book cause i see the majority of books at 194.5 and we know pub's love overs.
For me personally...this shows me momentum in either direction. This is the statistical analysis I refer to (as the regulars know), as the 'what have you done for me lately" factor. In stats, it's called exponential smoothing. You are not off base at all. Now it's up to you to determine how much weight you want to give this data. GL
Thanks Ax. At least I'm on the right track. Just need to see where the actuals come in tonight compared to what I've got.
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Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:
For me personally...this shows me momentum in either direction. This is the statistical analysis I refer to (as the regulars know), as the 'what have you done for me lately" factor. In stats, it's called exponential smoothing. You are not off base at all. Now it's up to you to determine how much weight you want to give this data. GL
Thanks Ax. At least I'm on the right track. Just need to see where the actuals come in tonight compared to what I've got.
I have to say, doing my own thing, 195 seems pretty high. The cats are not a high scoring offense combined with their defensive pressure and being at home needing the win, I gotta think the craptors will be in the tank on this game and under looks pretty good. I'm thinking 94-84 type game here. With the accuscore trend being 5 pts and could reach 6 if the line hits 195, I'm trending to the under here.
I'm not touching the NO/Hou Under 182, too many factors in on this one and the numbers point to an over for me but it is close.
Slice, when you lock, can you let us know..GL bro
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Quote Originally Posted by SlicerDicer:
I have to say, doing my own thing, 195 seems pretty high. The cats are not a high scoring offense combined with their defensive pressure and being at home needing the win, I gotta think the craptors will be in the tank on this game and under looks pretty good. I'm thinking 94-84 type game here. With the accuscore trend being 5 pts and could reach 6 if the line hits 195, I'm trending to the under here.
I'm not touching the NO/Hou Under 182, too many factors in on this one and the numbers point to an over for me but it is close.
Further validating the Tor/Cha Under play, last game they played each other was in Toronto on 11/26/08 they scored by quarter:
49,48,46,36 for 179
Despite Toronto shooting 50% from the field and with Bosh scoring 39!
That was still 15 points short of tonight's line which meant at least a 51 pt 4th quarter. If this game is anywhere close in the 4th, knowing Charlotte MUST win this game, it will be defensive lockdown time.
That's it for me:
1. Toronto doesnt shoot 50% on the road
2. Bosh doesnt have 39 tonight
3. Charlotte in a must win situation against a sub .500 team
Only 2 games this season: 179 and 168
My POD going on Tor/Char U194 or more if you can get it. I'm holding for 195 at my book cause i see the majority of books at 194.5 and we know pub's love overs.
Excellent write up sir.
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Quote Originally Posted by SlicerDicer:
Further validating the Tor/Cha Under play, last game they played each other was in Toronto on 11/26/08 they scored by quarter:
49,48,46,36 for 179
Despite Toronto shooting 50% from the field and with Bosh scoring 39!
That was still 15 points short of tonight's line which meant at least a 51 pt 4th quarter. If this game is anywhere close in the 4th, knowing Charlotte MUST win this game, it will be defensive lockdown time.
That's it for me:
1. Toronto doesnt shoot 50% on the road
2. Bosh doesnt have 39 tonight
3. Charlotte in a must win situation against a sub .500 team
Only 2 games this season: 179 and 168
My POD going on Tor/Char U194 or more if you can get it. I'm holding for 195 at my book cause i see the majority of books at 194.5 and we know pub's love overs.
i think the spurs can have the lead by half-time and durant has not played in a couple games im hoping he comes out sluggish......
anybody on the same page......
Thank man. Seems to be some love for the TOR/CHA U195 here. I'm going to take your advice and stay away from the NJ/DEN game. too much going on there...way too much.
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Quote Originally Posted by cricket2009:
ax i would stay away from that game totally........
denver is unpredictable........the best value i see out there is.......
i think the spurs can have the lead by half-time and durant has not played in a couple games im hoping he comes out sluggish......
anybody on the same page......
Thank man. Seems to be some love for the TOR/CHA U195 here. I'm going to take your advice and stay away from the NJ/DEN game. too much going on there...way too much.
I'm iffy on the first and the third since there's been arguments on both sides but I can tell you most here love the second. GL man...this isn't a bad outcome considering the crappy card we were handed. and thank you.
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Quote Originally Posted by Daigia-Gamble:
I think all good cappers in this threat is taking
San/Ok under 191.5
Tor/Bobcats Under 195
Houston/New Over 184
Ax, please corrercts me if I'm wrong.
Thanks for all your good work
I'm iffy on the first and the third since there's been arguments on both sides but I can tell you most here love the second. GL man...this isn't a bad outcome considering the crappy card we were handed. and thank you.
damn, I love this!...you guys are all over this game. Now I'm going to have to seriously consider tailing. I love this forum...
Like others new to the forum, I am very impressed by your expertise and insight and I'm loving this forum, too. You seem to be a genuinely positive and welcoming person, which is refreshing considering some of the "hater" posts you see on covers. I'm also impressed with your discipline and hopefully some will rub off on me. Anyway, enough with the blatant, but sincere, ass-kissing.
Though not fully familiar with your methods, it's clear that your picks are more of a statistical bent. How much do emotional and situational factors weigh into to your picks? For instance, NJ is on the second of a back-to-back within a 5-game road trip with a previous back-to-back. NJ gave Denver its worst beat down in 12 years a month or so ago. Someone previously said Denver gets lazy and eases up, but with all the NJ negs, e.g., no Harris, fatigue, last game of the road trip, etc., why not expect a Denver rout?
P.S. What's the origin of your username?
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Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:
damn, I love this!...you guys are all over this game. Now I'm going to have to seriously consider tailing. I love this forum...
Like others new to the forum, I am very impressed by your expertise and insight and I'm loving this forum, too. You seem to be a genuinely positive and welcoming person, which is refreshing considering some of the "hater" posts you see on covers. I'm also impressed with your discipline and hopefully some will rub off on me. Anyway, enough with the blatant, but sincere, ass-kissing.
Though not fully familiar with your methods, it's clear that your picks are more of a statistical bent. How much do emotional and situational factors weigh into to your picks? For instance, NJ is on the second of a back-to-back within a 5-game road trip with a previous back-to-back. NJ gave Denver its worst beat down in 12 years a month or so ago. Someone previously said Denver gets lazy and eases up, but with all the NJ negs, e.g., no Harris, fatigue, last game of the road trip, etc., why not expect a Denver rout?
Thanks axp and everyone.This is my only play along woth atl-wash 1st period over 1.5 goals 
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