NBA MON 031609 early thoughts - value hunting

I gotta go with NO/HOU Under 182......In 2008 (they have not played in 2009)  5 out of 6 games went under 182....thats right only 1 game and it was @ HOU went Over 182.....Also HOU has a 5 game Under streak and NO has a 2 game Under streak...usually I would like the streak to end but what makes this look good is that the public (so far) is taking the Over and the line still drops...I know the game is a few hours away and the line may move some more and more bets will be placed and the public may be going the other way, but for now Under looks good and I hope it stays that way...

Ok one of the things i like to look at in these tight games and days is the public support on the side play. 

 

Denver is off the charts favorite by 13 or so.  Noway they cover 13 with 90% public support.  So lets say they win by 9.  Denver 107 and NJNets 98.  So what is next?  If you cap it at 208 as do I, we believe NJ will show up. 

 

Devein Harris is a great player but he is no point guard! Like Steve Nash a true point guard.  NJ covers and it goes well not Under.

I gotta go with NO/HOU Under 182......In 2008 (they have not played in 2009)  5 out of 6 games went under 182....thats right only 1 game and it was @ HOU went Over 182.....Also HOU has a 5 game Under streak and NO has a 2 game Under streak...usually I would like the streak to end but what makes this look good is that the public (so far) is taking the Over and the line still drops...I know the game is a few hours away and the line may move some more and more bets will be placed and the public may be going the other way, but for now Under looks good and I hope it stays that way...

IMHO  the only two Under plays tonight that even warrnt discussion.

 

Bob's both travelked to get here.  Rapt's and Bob's would rather play defense.

 

Hornets and Rockets both under machines as of late.

 

These four teams are the opposite of the Suns Nuggets Warriors.

 

 

 

 

Wow, on the money analysis 

Zeus, you feel comfortable calling this the UOD?  These numbers are compelling to say the least!  We can wait and monitor the numbers but it's hard to argue against this and my #24 post

the only reason that denver total is so low is because they expect a blowout......and more than half of the time they r right.......look at that suns/warriors total......they threw in a number that would make the public bite low knowning that it was going to a high scoring game......

Here's a good number to look at...DEN has been DD favs at home 6X this season.  O/U is 4-1-1 avg total 205.5 (higher than the current 204.5) and covers the over by an average of 6 points.  according to these numbers, the total lands on 211-212 tonight.  That's the 3 possession cushion I'm looking for.

AXP....5dimes has the char-tor total at 194.Since you have it ending at 188,wouldn't this be a play since it's a 3 possession game.....unless you are counting 3 pointers as a possession.I think if it goes up to 195 on 5 dimes,it's definately a play.What you think?

Today's Accuscore as of 12:45pm EST:

 

Charlotte by 3.6 and 189

Portland by 2.7 and 185.7

NO by 7 and 184.6

SA by 8 and 187.8

Den by 9.9 and 208.1