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NBA MON 031609 early thoughts - value hunting

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Posted: #126
Quote Originally Posted by success1:

Port/Mphs now 188 at my book......

Wow, the previous numbers in this matchup just doesn't jive with this low number.  I was so sure the books were going to give us a lot more to work with.  I think yesterday's unders orgy has something to do with today's numbers.
 
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Posted: #127
Quote Originally Posted by Hank55:

Hey Axman, if you don't mind I'll give you my numbers and see how they mesh with yours.

Tor/Char 199 188
SA/OKC 181 
184Port/Mem 185
186Hou/NO 190
177NJ/Den 206
208
Good Luck folks.

now what do we have here????  it does help to put these numbers next to each other.
 
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Posted: #128
Quote Originally Posted by Mad_Skillz123:

nice hit last night on the lakers under Ax...i cant believe how was that possible??? I gave up from my ticket @HT...and then...87 pts in 2H for the under....just great....love it...when its going...ITS GOING!!!

this is one of the best months i have had in betting...January was excellent but March...omg...great!!! and its still 17th, thats the good part   and damn...no good value on the prop plays

gl on your plays buddy 

Mad_S,  isn't it just great to play with house money???  there's no greater feeling in the world!  Keep it hot my friend!
 
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Posted: #129
Hank, that didn't format correctly:

Tor/Char 199
188

SA/OKC 181
184

Port/Mem 185
186

Hou/NO 190
177

NJ/Den 206
208
 
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Posted: #130
Quote Originally Posted by Mad_Skillz123:

btw, i still can go with U 208.5 denver game...but i dont know if i pull the trigger...still havent decided yet

I'm with you here...nothing
 
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Posted: #131

Quote Originally Posted by FlippaCoin:



Wow, not cool.
Turc has had plenty of picks different from Ax.
When a game is that "juicy" then it's not uncommon to have similar picks.

Larry,
Percentages that I use are from Oddstracker, sponsored by Covers.  Which is the same with SportInsights.
Reiterating....
I'm not sure how accurate they are but if someone has something better, then please share.

 

not trying to be an ass. i'm only being real. ax will come out with a uod, and 5 minutes later turc will post his pod, which will usually be the same pod as ax. i can only .

 
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Posted: #132
Quote Originally Posted by Bruuuuce78:

I hate all these totals, I hope they all go to hell and over..............so we can get some great up and coming lines.......
 
BOL

Tuesday Bruce..Tuesday pal
 
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Posted: #133
Quote Originally Posted by Joe_Vienna:

NJN @ DEN is the play!

BOL
Joe

Under Joe?
 
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Posted: #134
Quote Originally Posted by SlicerDicer:

Today's Accuscore as of 12:45pm EST:
 
Charlotte by 3.6 and 189
Portland by 2.7 and 185.7
NO by 7 and 184.6
SA by 8 and 187.8
Den by 9.9 and 208.1

I'm going to throw these next to Hank and my numbers to get a big picture view.  Thanks pal
 
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Posted: #135
BTW Ax, I have been tracking Accuscore vs. Overs and Unders, interesting note, when Accuscore is 5+ points difference from vegas line on Unders the current record is 5-4  (only been tracking about a month), before this though it was 5-1 until suffering 3 straight losses over the weekend. 
 
Looking at this, the only play that shows is Tor/Char U 194 as Accuscore has 189.  Considering Charlottes need to win this game, and at home, possible defensive pressure turned up a notch tonight.
 
Though I hate to bet on any craptors games.  Just my opinion and insights.
 
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Posted: #136
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:


Under Joe?


I would never post something other than an under in your thread ^^
 
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Posted: #137
Quote Originally Posted by chasing2day:

what's up ax. nice call on the utah under yesterday. if you're not liking anything today, it's all good. maybe turk can come out with an original play now.

Wow...play nice chase.  Turc has come up with some clutch plays and he's a hell of a handicapper.

There was some  going on with that play last night.  The over got  hard on the LAL play.  I need to see some trending after an unders day like yesterday.  It seems all the lines are just a bit lower today.  I hope the books just overadjusted and get burned tonight...just wishful thinking.
 
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Posted: #138
Quote Originally Posted by FlippaCoin:



Lines are pretty low today.
Maybe because most of the games yesterday were Unders?


I think i should have read this first before I posted my last comment.  Good call flippa!
 
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Posted: #139
Quote Originally Posted by proguy747:

Good afternoon ax.   Last night I locked denver 208 under and nuggs -10.  I will say this everybody thinks about the player injured the team will rally thing.  That is true except for the point guard position.  The last point guard injury that I remember is nash.  Maybe there is #s with him being out of the line-up.  I think this is why the number changed so fast.  At 208 I believe it was a good play.  Nj offense is all about the guards. Billups and anthony will win this matchup.  Now with harris out nj will struggle big time with noone to set-up the offense becuase carter is a ball hog.  My only hestation about the current line of 13.5 is denver has some lazy players.  They did this against the clippers.  The nuggs barely covered the 13 points becuase they did not have a strong effort and took some points off.   I have considered middling my nugs bet on the fact that the under at 208 is good in my mind.  
 
What do you guys think?
 
 
 

You've got a nice middle here proguy.  You have to look at this from a business perspective.  It cost about a dime a hook.  You've got seven dimes of value by risking one dime in a middling opportunity.  Why the hell not?  If it were me, since I'm really not crazy about this game anymore, you have a great chance to score some big bucks on what I would call a NO PLAY situation.  Your guradian angel has given you a gift!!!  
 
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Posted: #140
Quote Originally Posted by SlicerDicer:

BTW Ax, I have been tracking Accuscore vs. Overs and Unders, interesting note, when Accuscore is 5+ points difference from vegas line on Unders the current record is 5-4  (only been tracking about a month), before this though it was 5-1 until suffering 3 straight losses over the weekend. 
 
Looking at this, the only play that shows is Tor/Char U 194 as Accuscore has 189.  Considering Charlottes need to win this game, and at home, possible defensive pressure turned up a notch tonight.
 
Though I hate to bet on any craptors games.  Just my opinion and insights.

Excellent point and I wish we had more tracking to go on.  I love the fact that you tracked this against the delta and not actual numbers.  This is a very telling indicator.  One I use often but with my own buy-in numbers.  Hence my obsession with the 3 possession cushion (7+ points).  I'm about to compare your previous numbers to the others I've already posted.  Since TOR won last night, we really have nothing to go on.  When was the last time TOR was in this spot?  Coming off a win.  LOL
 
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Posted: #141
Tor/Char 199 HANK
188 AX
189 ACCU

SA/OKC 181
184
187.8

Port/Mem 185
186
185.7

Hou/NO 190
177
184.6

NJ/Den 206
208
208.1

does this tell us anything???
 
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Posted: #142
Quote Originally Posted by Joe_Vienna:



I would never post something other than an under in your thread ^^

LOL Joe...
 
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Posted: #143
Have you guys seen the Pick n Roll cover's NBA best bets?  I tend to fade these plays as I go through my capping routine but take a look...two unders?
 
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Posted: #144
some more numbers for you!

Tor/Char 199 HANK
188 AX
189 ACCU
192 Joe

SA/OKC 181
184
187.8
187

Port/Mem 185
186
185.7
201

Hou/NO 190
177
184.6
182

NJ/Den 206
208
208.1
200
 
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Posted: #145
Ok one of the things i like to look at in these tight games and days is the public support on the side play. 
 
Denver is off the charts favorite by 13 or so.  Noway they cover 13 with 90% public support.  So lets say they win by 9.  Denver 107 and NJNets 98.  So what is next?  If you cap it at 208 as do I, we believe NJ will show up. 
 
Devein Harris is a great player but he is no point guard! Like Steve Nash a true point guard.  NJ covers and it goes well not Under.
 
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Posted: #146
I agree Ax. If I were ever to pay attention to those plays, I would fade them as well. They always seem to be losers.
 
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Posted: #147
Quote Originally Posted by Forty7:

Ok one of the things i like to look at in these tight games and days is the public support on the side play. 
 
Denver is off the charts favorite by 13 or so.  Noway they cover 13 with 90% public support.  So lets say they win by 9.  Denver 107 and NJNets 98.  So what is next?  If you cap it at 208 as do I, we believe NJ will show up. 
 
Devein Harris is a great player but he is no point guard! Like Steve Nash a true point guard.  NJ covers and it goes well not Under.

Concrete argument...I'm slowly starting to get pulled back into this game...both the side and the total.  Given one play only, would I go with the 13 freebies or the NOT under???
 
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Posted: #148
I gotta go with NO/HOU Under 182......In 2008 (they have not played in 2009)  5 out of 6 games went under 182....thats right only 1 game and it was @ HOU went Over 182.....Also HOU has a 5 game Under streak and NO has a 2 game Under streak...usually I would like the streak to end but what makes this look good is that the public (so far) is taking the Over and the line still drops...I know the game is a few hours away and the line may move some more and more bets will be placed and the public may be going the other way, but for now Under looks good and I hope it stays that way...
 
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Posted: #149
IMHO  the only two Under plays tonight that even warrnt discussion.
 
Bob's both travelked to get here.  Rapt's and Bob's would rather play defense.
 
Hornets and Rockets both under machines as of late.
 
These four teams are the opposite of the Suns Nuggets Warriors.
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #150
Quote Originally Posted by CoFred:

I agree Ax. If I were ever to pay attention to those plays, I would fade them as well. They always seem to be losers.

doesn't it strike you as odd that both plays they publish are unders after a day like yesterday?  I often wonder who the ghost writers are.
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