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NBA MON 031609 early thoughts - value hunting

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Posted: #101
Quote Originally Posted by grindstone:

Het AX here the lastest % public
 
NJ/Denv        open 208     current 204
 
66% over
34% under
 
OK  AX, Vegas drives this line down and public is all over the over  and they keep dropping it. This reminds me of the PHX/GS game yesterday the line kept rising the public was all over the under.Over game is esy. This might have the same intention.What do you think AX???
 
Also lastest numbers
 
Port/Mem     open 189     current 188
75% over
25% under

Thank you for this grindstone.  Interesting observation.  It's really turning out to be one of those days.  I'm not liking the fact I'm trying to put a spin on these games in my head to justify a play.  The west coast is going to get moving soon and they'll have their say.  Let's give it a few ours and see how the numbers turn!  Thaks pal
 
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Posted: #102
they keep on driving it down, because harris obviously out.. but didnt you guys see last night what happend when he got hurt?
 
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Posted: #103
Quote Originally Posted by sharpster_XX:

That denver line is waaaaaaay too sharp its under or nothing


I'm leaning towards the latter unless I can come up with that objective gem that tells me I'm not making the play up in my head.
 
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Posted: #104
Quote Originally Posted by ashdogs:

they keep on driving it down, because harris obviously out.. but didnt you guys see last night what happend when he got hurt?

ash, you seeing a similar response from the team tonight?
 
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Posted: #105
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:


Thank you for this grindstone.  Interesting observation.  It's really turning out to be one of those days.  I'm not liking the fact I'm trying to put a spin on these games in my head to justify a play.  The west coast is going to get moving soon and they'll have their say.  Let's give it a few ours and see how the numbers turn!  Thaks pal

Looks like the line is stabilizing around 204.5, therefore what should we look for AX in the next couple of hours??

 
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Posted: #106
GL to you guys today. Looks like I will be on the sidelines unless the Raptors/Bobcats total can somehow jump 2 points. Guess I can focus on my day job all day today
 
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Posted: #107
no idea ax, but taking unders here just looks to easy.. while be going through scenarios while im taking wife shopping.. im such a zoombie in the mall
 
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Posted: #108
Quote Originally Posted by grindstone:

Looks like the line is stabilizing around 204.5, therefore what should we look for AX in the next couple of hours??


I'm going to see if this moves up even higher.  I'm also going to be interested in the public ratio and where they start to settle in at.
 
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Posted: #109
Quote Originally Posted by JCWhy83:

GL to you guys today. Looks like I will be on the sidelines unless the Raptors/Bobcats total can somehow jump 2 points. Guess I can focus on my day job all day today

There's a plan...Working for the man.   LOL  enjoy the day off JCW!
 
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Posted: #110
Quote Originally Posted by ashdogs:

no idea ax, but taking unders here just looks to easy.. while be going through scenarios while im taking wife shopping.. im such a zoombie in the mall

LOL, that's the life ash...wife shopping and you capping in your head.  These games just have so many different angles to 'em.  Gotta hand it to the guys in the back room, they did their homework.  Good luck shopping man!
 
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Posted: #111
will be back in a few hours guys.
 
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Posted: #112
Port/Mphs now 188 at my book......
 
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Posted: #113
Hey Axman, if you don't mind I'll give you my numbers and see how they mesh with yours.

Tor/Char 199
SA/OKC 181
Port/Mem 185
Hou/NO 190
NJ/Den 206

Good Luck folks.
 
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Posted: #114
nice hit last night on the lakers under Ax...i cant believe how was that possible??? I gave up from my ticket @HT...and then...87 pts in 2H for the under....just great....love it...when its going...ITS GOING!!!

this is one of the best months i have had in betting...January was excellent but March...omg...great!!! and its still 17th, thats the good part   and damn...no good value on the prop plays

gl on your plays buddy 
 
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Posted: #115
btw, i still can go with U 208.5 denver game...but i dont know if i pull the trigger...still havent decided yet
 
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Posted: #116
I hate all these totals, I hope they all go to hell and over..............so we can get some great up and coming lines.......
 
BOL
 
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Posted: #117
NJN @ DEN is the play!

BOL
Joe
 
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Posted: #118
Today's Accuscore as of 12:45pm EST:
 
Charlotte by 3.6 and 189
Portland by 2.7 and 185.7
NO by 7 and 184.6
SA by 8 and 187.8
Den by 9.9 and 208.1
 
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Posted: #119
what's up ax. nice call on the utah under yesterday. if you're not liking anything today, it's all good. maybe turk can come out with an original play now.
 
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Posted: #120
Quote Originally Posted by Bruuuuce78:

I hate all these totals, I hope they all go to hell and over..............so we can get some great up and coming lines.......
 
BOL


Lines are pretty low today.
Maybe because most of the games yesterday were Unders?

 
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Posted: #121
grindstone or anyone else,
 
could you tell me where you get your public percentages, especially on O/U?? thanks
 
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Posted: #122
Quote Originally Posted by LarryD123:

grindstone or anyone else,
 
could you tell me where you get your public percentages, especially on O/U?? thanks


https://www.covers.com/sports/sports-matchups.aspx
 
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Posted: #123
Quote Originally Posted by chasing2day:

what's up ax. nice call on the utah under yesterday. if you're not liking anything today, it's all good. maybe turk can come out with an original play now.


Wow, not cool.
Turc has had plenty of picks different from Ax.
When a game is that "juicy" then it's not uncommon to have similar picks.

Larry,
Percentages that I use are from Oddstracker, sponsored by Covers.  Which is the same with SportInsights.
Reiterating....
I'm not sure how accurate they are but if someone has something better, then please share.

 
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Posted: #124
Good afternoon ax.   Last night I locked denver 208 under and nuggs -10.  I will say this everybody thinks about the player injured the team will rally thing.  That is true except for the point guard position.  The last point guard injury that I remember is nash.  Maybe there is #s with him being out of the line-up.  I think this is why the number changed so fast.  At 208 I believe it was a good play.  Nj offense is all about the guards. Billups and anthony will win this matchup.  Now with harris out nj will struggle big time with noone to set-up the offense becuase carter is a ball hog.  My only hestation about the current line of 13.5 is denver has some lazy players.  They did this against the clippers.  The nuggs barely covered the 13 points becuase they did not have a strong effort and took some points off.   I have considered middling my nugs bet on the fact that the under at 208 is good in my mind.  
 
What do you guys think?
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #125
Ok guys, I'm back...I was trying to find out why WBA was boxed.  Give me a chance to catch up.
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