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NBA MON 031609 early thoughts - value hunting

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Posted: #51
i do think that the Houston game have a good chance of getting over as yahoo sports shares this info.

"New Orleans is allowing 93.5 points per game and Houston 94.8. At some point, however, both clubs are going to need more scoring than they got Saturday night, as Houston lost 88-85 to San Antonio and New Orleans fell 97-79 to Chicago."

is it me? or does the info shouts OVER all over ?
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by Pick-N-Pop:



Can the Nets stay competitive without their floor general, Devin Harris? Usually teams will step it up after their star is sidelined but that effort might have but used up in today's gut-wrenching loss which dawn on them as well. Not to mention that the Nets dealt Denver their worst loss of the season back in the Swamp, so revenge will definitely also be a factor. Wince also played 43 minutes tonight.

But on the other hand, yoyo has been hitting at a ridiculous 70% clip, so it might not be wise to fade him.

After I posted this I started asking the same questions PnP.  This is a sure sign of forcing a play.  I've been doing this long enough to see the signs but unfortunately, I haven't learned a damn thing because I'm still ignoring them.  I'm on this site because I'm a gambler.  I thought I was under control most of the time...The demon shows its face at these moments.  Ok, I'm going to regroup and if there's no play...there is NO PLAY.  Thanks PnP..i needed that . 
 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by nostradamus168:

i do think that the Houston game have a good chance of getting over as yahoo sports shares this info.

"New Orleans is allowing 93.5 points per game and Houston 94.8. At some point, however, both clubs are going to need more scoring than they got Saturday night, as Houston lost 88-85 to San Antonio and New Orleans fell 97-79 to Chicago."

is it me? or does the info shouts OVER all over ?

Thanks for sharing this...this certainly adds to the anti-under play argument plus you have a few cappers that agree with you on this.  I really initially thought over the second I saw the number...after some digging, I'm not so sure.  I don't know if you looked at my reply to Turc.  I'm just not sold on either side right now.  
 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by JCWhy83:


I think I will just take tomorrow off and gear up for Tuesday's board where I think there could be 3-4 games with nice value.  

now, there's a great idea JCW...I may just join you
 
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Posted: #55
I really don't know man, but fatigue factor of Houston plus the situational plays for this game should go under.  So its either way!  Quite a hard game to cap imo.  Maybe the Charlotte, toronto and Nets, nuggets game would be better?
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by nostradamus168:

I really don't know man, but fatigue factor of Houston plus the situational plays for this game should go under.  So its either way!  Quite a hard game to cap imo.  Maybe the Charlotte, toronto and Nets, nuggets game would be better?

Gotta agree with you there...there are signals pointing everywhere.  Trends say one thing, stats say another, now add the situational and you can spin that in a few ways.  I'm not locking in overnight since there's just no value in doing so.  Going to wait until noon or so when the west coast is finally up and moving.  The lines should start to settle in shortly thereafter.  I should know by then if there's even going to be any action for me.  My only lean right now is for the "day off".  GL with your card and if I may say, a day off wouldn't hurt after a "not so good" day.  Start fresh Tuesday...you're really not going to miss anything with Monday's card.  IMHO.

Take care pal 
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by chi23city:

 

 

MIAMI.. Where do you get you STATS from if you dont mind me askin.. i love how it this does all the math for you with all the avgs and margins

 

thanx ahead of time



https://www.covers.com/sports/nba/basketball-matchups.aspx  (click on match ups, then stats)

https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/referees/current_assignments.html  (ref assignments - o/u stats)

Its a good idea to at least review these basic stats for each match up.  Its very easy research, just takes some time.

Also see the sports data base dot come link that Ax posted.

Happy capping
 
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Posted: #58
Oh yeah, and look at the days rest stats in the matchup page for every game. You can see how teams score vs the total when they are rested vs not rested.
 
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Posted: #59
Initial look at the NJ/Den game take it off the board as an option.

Denver Under 208

NJ 10-8 12-6-0 103.1 101.7 204.7 13-5

1 Day Rest  





DEN 25-11 21-14-1 106.3 100.9 207.2 23-13


There would have to be a juice situational factor for this to be considered.

Ref assignments are not out yet.  Just showing a way to use the above links, powered by covers.