Half my NBA season's bankroll is going on this teams' 1st game and a MEGA WRITE-UP accompanies it!!

Question

I gotta tell ya. I have been waiting for this game FOR FOUR MONTHS!

The game I was waiting for is now here. Better yet, it has all the conditions set for a ripe win and big time cash, and then some.

It is such a big game, and so special a bet, half my season's bankroll is going on it. I am not bullshi**ing you. Many people say betting is a marathon not a sprint. That is very true. But when a Lamborghini has the keys in it at the start line of a foot race, you jump in that baby hit the nitro boosters and drive straight to Vegas, with your name spelled out in a dust cloud.

The game I will cash, and the game I will share with the posters here, is yours for the taking. It is:

BLAZERS -3 over SUNS

There were several requirements I needed to unload on this game and not only were all met, but they were far exceeded.

Ok, what were my two requirements.

Because the West is stacked, I did NOT want to see a team like the Spurs, OKC, the Rockets, Memphis or even the Lakers in game one. Those are very losable games, even with a nice spread. Who did the NBA GIFT WRAP to the Blazers in the first game?

THE SUNS!!!

Wow. Only the Sixers would have been better.

What was the second requirement? If the team the Blazers were facing was awful (they are), the game had to be on the road. It is. Beautiful. That makes for a very short spread to contend with.

I want to remind you of something. The Blazers are currently on a THIRTEEN GAME LOSING STREAK dating back to last season and you will be laying points here. They could not beat anyone down the stretch due to a decimated lineup. So decimated was the lineup, Sasha Pavlovic was getting significant minutes. JJ Hickson was a STAR on the team. Meyers Leonard was the starting center. Folks, it was BAD and there was no escape.

But THIS GAME provides all the redemption that's needed.

So what are some key reasons I am unloading half my season's bankroll on the Blazers:

1) The team is now (almost) fully healthy.

I say almost because Wesley Matthews is out the first game. That will not be an issue given what the Suns are putting out there against them. Better yet, Lamarcus Aldridge is back and healthy. Damian Lillard is back and healthy. BOTH have said last season was an embarrassment and there were major rumors Aldridge said he wanted off the team after the end of last season. He's still here and he expects a playoff birth this year. He's on the record as saying this team is a seventh seed. He is 27 and in his prime and will be a 20-10 guy or close to it. If they don't make the playoffs he may want to see the door.

Lillard has gone on the record about his defense and his team defense and has demanded improvement from himself and team-wide.

Both these team leaders will completely erase any memories of the roster that ended last season (go take a look who played in those 13 games last year; it's scary).

Nic Batum is also back and fully healthy.

This roster is stacked and ready to win now.

2) Blazers were consistently graded an A for having one of the best offseasons.

It's a small market team but they had a great offseason.

They needed a center: They got Robin Lopez (and didn't break the bank doing it).

They needed a backup PG: They went and got Mo Williams. Yeah, he never met a shot he didn't like but he will score (something the Blazers could not do at the end of the year) and he will have several assists).

They needed a guy to stretch the floor: They went and got Dorell Wright. I don't have to tell any of you how hot this guy can get from anywhere on the floor when he gets going. He adds a new dimension to a Blazer lineup that lacked spark and outside shooting.

They also got Thomas Robinson for basically nothing because Houston needed to dump salary to sign Dwight. Will he contribute? I don't know. But if he doesn't, his career is likely over and that should light a fire under his a**.

Their first round draft pick is injured but he would be a nonfactor in this game.

And isn't it a nice bonus that Lopez will be going up against the team that drafted him? I do. Yes, he'll be extra motivated opening night.

scalabrine · Answer

I gotta tell ya. I have been waiting for this game FOR FOUR MONTHS!

The game I was waiting for is now here. Better yet, it has all the conditions set for a ripe win and big time cash, and then some.

It is such a big game, and so special a bet, half my season's bankroll is going on it. I am not bullshi**ing you. Many people say betting is a marathon not a sprint. That is very true. But when a Lamborghini has the keys in it at the start line of a foot race, you jump in that baby hit the nitro boosters and drive straight to Vegas, with your name spelled out in a dust cloud.

The game I will cash, and the game I will share with the posters here, is yours for the taking. It is:

BLAZERS -3 over SUNS

There were several requirements I needed to unload on this game and not only were all met, but they were far exceeded.

Ok, what were my two requirements.

Because the West is stacked, I did NOT want to see a team like the Spurs, OKC, the Rockets, Memphis or even the Lakers in game one. Those are very losable games, even with a nice spread. Who did the NBA GIFT WRAP to the Blazers in the first game?

THE SUNS!!!

Wow. Only the Sixers would have been better.

What was the second requirement? If the team the Blazers were facing was awful (they are), the game had to be on the road. It is. Beautiful. That makes for a very short spread to contend with.

I want to remind you of something. The Blazers are currently on a THIRTEEN GAME LOSING STREAK dating back to last season and you will be laying points here. They could not beat anyone down the stretch due to a decimated lineup. So decimated was the lineup, Sasha Pavlovic was getting significant minutes. JJ Hickson was a STAR on the team. Meyers Leonard was the starting center. Folks, it was BAD and there was no escape.

But THIS GAME provides all the redemption that's needed.

So what are some key reasons I am unloading half my season's bankroll on the Blazers:

1) The team is now (almost) fully healthy.

I say almost because Wesley Matthews is out the first game. That will not be an issue given what the Suns are putting out there against them. Better yet, Lamarcus Aldridge is back and healthy. Damian Lillard is back and healthy. BOTH have said last season was an embarrassment and there were major rumors Aldridge said he wanted off the team after the end of last season. He's still here and he expects a playoff birth this year. He's on the record as saying this team is a seventh seed. He is 27 and in his prime and will be a 20-10 guy or close to it. If they don't make the playoffs he may want to see the door.

Lillard has gone on the record about his defense and his team defense and has demanded improvement from himself and team-wide.

Both these team leaders will completely erase any memories of the roster that ended last season (go take a look who played in those 13 games last year; it's scary).

Nic Batum is also back and fully healthy.

This roster is stacked and ready to win now.

2) Blazers were consistently graded an A for having one of the best offseasons.

It's a small market team but they had a great offseason.

They needed a center: They got Robin Lopez (and didn't break the bank doing it).

They needed a backup PG: They went and got Mo Williams. Yeah, he never met a shot he didn't like but he will score (something the Blazers could not do at the end of the year) and he will have several assists).

They needed a guy to stretch the floor: They went and got Dorell Wright. I don't have to tell any of you how hot this guy can get from anywhere on the floor when he gets going. He adds a new dimension to a Blazer lineup that lacked spark and outside shooting.

They also got Thomas Robinson for basically nothing because Houston needed to dump salary to sign Dwight. Will he contribute? I don't know. But if he doesn't, his career is likely over and that should light a fire under his a**.

Their first round draft pick is injured but he would be a nonfactor in this game.

And isn't it a nice bonus that Lopez will be going up against the team that drafted him? I do. Yes, he'll be extra motivated opening night.

scalabrine · Answer

3) And where exactly are the Suns going?

Let's analyze the key offseason move for the Suns that just happened. They traded one of their best players in Marcin Gortat to the Wizards two days ago (right before the season starts of course), for a protected first round pick (does that tell you something?), and Emeka Okafor. Hey Emeka is not a bad pickup you say? That would be true...if he wasn't out for AT LEAST THREE MONTHS and the Wizards believe it to be much longer. His replacements at center? Alex Len and Miles Plumlee. You heard that right! Good luck with that! I'll take a Robin Lopez and a side of mash instead of the those two steaming piles of horse manure.

Andrew Wiggins, here come the Suns. If the model doesn't look familiar, just look at what the Sixers are doing.

So how bad are the Suns and Sixers? According to Vegas, they are the two worst teams in the league with projected win totals of 20 and 17 respectively. We can see why...

4) How about the rest of the Suns roster?

Well guess what, not only did the Suns trade their starting center, their starting power forward, Markieff Morris is suspended for opening night against the Blazers. That's two solid starters down and it's not even opening tip yet!

So who is left? Luis Scola? Nope, he's gone. You liked Jared Dudley? He's gone too. Even Jermaine O'Neal who showed some flashes at the end of the year is gone.

Eric Bledsoe is now there but how the hell can this guy be happy to play on a team like Phoenix?

The Suns other major offseason move? Signing Gerald Green. I'm serious.

Again, Andrew Wiggins people...

Folks, I could go on but do I need to?

This game is right there for the Blazers to end this miserable losing streak against an awful Suns squad that is ready and willing to dump to them.

And if they don't beat the Suns? Who waits for them?

@Nuggets

Spurs

Rockets

And then the Kings which is winnable. Which means this losing streak might get to 17 games! before they can get off the snide if they don't win opening night.

So now the line. I found it at -3 and it will likely rise. JUMP ALL OVER IT. The Blazers will win comfortably.

But the Suns are home you say? Well guess what. Last year, with a team that was BETTER than this one (25 wins and Vegas projects 20 this year), they had the second WORST home record in franchise history at 17-24, losing 7 in a row near the end of the season. I'd be more comfortable backing them with a boatload of point on the road. Luckily that isn't happening here.

In short, this is THE GAME of the season, right at your fingertips.

The NBA gave me this one on the schedule right where I wanted it with white glove service on a silver platter.

Why half my bankroll and not the whole thing? Injury. I can't predict something stupid happening in the game itself with Aldridge who has always proven brittle. Outside of that, I'm gonna be living on easy street this

year with a bloated bankroll right out of the gate.

Won't you join me? Mr. Stern, I'll have 2 olives with that martini thank you very much. And take my bags to the trunk will you? I have a first class flight to catch, on you of course. This is a great second career for a man of your pedigree!

:::Speeds away in Lamorghini while splashing mud in Stern's face:::

THE PICK FOR HALF THE MARBLES:

BLAZERS -3 over SUNS

ravensfan52 · Answer

Very convincing scal. I always enjoy a good write up. That would be a nice way to start the season, cashing in with half the bankroll on the line. Good luck yo!

ceycia · Answer

half your bankroll?   i think ml is the better option just in case

YoungBuckman · Answer

Nice write-up. Good luck to you bro

scalabrine · Answer

@ravens @young thanks.@Ceycia - I understand that but the ML will be around -150 or worse. That&#39;s a huge hit of juice for a big bet like this. Because I have this capped at about a 10 pt blazer win or better, laying 3 is not an issue for me.

kaponofor3 · Answer

I agree 100% with the analysis and think you have the right side. That being said, I'd be hesitant to put 50% of my bankroll on ANY game, but if you are going to do it, I think this spot has a good chance of cashing for you Scal.

Good luck

Mad_Skillz123 · Answer

what bookie offers the bet? nice write-up, i will be on it, as soon as i find a bookie that offers it...so far - piiny NO, 365 NO, wilhill NO...

Mad_Skillz123 · Answer

ok i found it on pinny...had to pay extra juice to get the good line -3 @-125this is also my largest bet of the season, so good luck to us.

scalabrine · Answer

@kapono thx. I understand the stance to avoid such a large bet on any game.

But I believe the lines to open seasons, regardless of sport, are to be taken advantage of when you study a team all offseason and know what you have coming in. The only way to therefore take advantage is larger than normal bet sizing.

I have been building a small stash since the season ended for this very spot. And it really is as good as it gets inflating my bet size even further.

I can't explain how disappointed I would have been if this was a Blazer home game and I had to lay 9 or 10, or if they opened vs. the Spurs. I can only affirm a win here but not a cover at those spreads.

When I saw it was a team that was dumping this year, and one that fully supported that theory by trading it's best big man for an injured player days ago, I can only think the losing will begin immediately. Not only that, the Blazer HAVE to end this losing streak before it becomes headline-making. Nothing is more dejecting.

That makes the -3 largely inconsequential, and makes for a bet size that will allow me a ton of flexibility betting many other games for the year if I hit (and a quick cash-out in part, too).

scalabrine · Answer

Sounds good Mad. We&#39;re in it together. I&#39;m disappointed to see that the juice is -125 at -3 which means this line is going up when it is released on all books. Looks like there is some Blazer love out there already, hopefully sharp love.

t2005 · Answer

SCALA

Mad_Skillz123 · Answer

live already @-4.5....was -3.5 when i placed the bet i think it will go to -6.5 by game time

Mad_Skillz123 · Answer

-4.5 from -105 to -110....expecting to see -5 in an hour or two

PapaShango · Answer

Oh god.  Go away.

scalabrine · Answer

Damn, -4.5 already? That pisses me off since my bet is not yet in like almost all of us. That is MUCH more Blazer love than I thought.

I guess the losing streak is adding the spread in reverse. Obviously this is a completely different team though. The killer on the anti-suns spread is the Gortat trade.

No matter. I have them by 9-10 here.

scalabrine · Answer

Congrats for grabbing 3.5. We&#39;ll never see it again.

scalabrine · Answer

@Shango, why don&#39;t you ask everyone here who they&#39;d rather see &quot;go away&quot; if given the choice, me or you?Create a thread right now and see the responses. You&#39;ll see what a fool you are making of yourself.

PapaShango · Answer

I don&#x27;t feel like creating useless threads.  You can go ahead and make one all you want.  You haven&#x27;t picked a winner in years and now you&#x27;re risking half your bankroll on a play in game 1 of the regular season.  It&#x27;s such a desperate attempt for attention.  It&#x27;s quite comical, actually.

PapaShango · Answer

If you lose this play, you will leave covers for a while or go to one of your other several aliases to try to stir up some other bullshitt and attention you seek.  Anybody with half a brain can see through you and anything you spew when you decide to give your 2 cents on a play.

kaponofor3 · Answer

I would feel comfortable taking POR up to -7.5 for sure personally

warcameagle56 · Answer

Scal, Im on it bro.Half your bankroll? Cast Iron balls getrdone..Great write up...NBA is here baby!love baskets &amp; CBB is right around corner.

The Hawk · Answer

Scal, great write up. Most only focus on how the team they're betting on will win. But, you included as to why the Suns are primed to lose. A detailed look at both sides.

With such detail, I have to ask. Do you follow the Blazers really closely, or do you just hate the Suns, or both?

GL

JNguyenCali · Answer

Thanks , on it ( at -4.5 )

jdawgqn86 · Answer

Word up, taking it at -5.

Half my NBA season's bankroll is going on this teams' 1st game and a MEGA WRITE-UP accompanies it!!

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