Posted:
#1
Don't need any fancy stars to win this bet. Automatic fade.
Will bump after game $$$$$$
Will bump after game $$$$$$
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Entire forum on Jets... Auto fade
Posted:
#9
Quote Originally Posted by amd:
Yeah, we have approximately 500 posters who post plays every night in comparison to over 1,000,000 gamblers outside of covers.com. I'd say those numbers are quite a disparity.
Disparity, of course, but I think it would be naive to assume that what goes on here is in no way a reflection of what goes on out there. Yes it is too small of a sample size to make any rash decisions over, but it does contain some information that is worth taking note of.
BOL to you all whichever way you go
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Posted:
#11
Id like a stab at this:
A forum like this sans the clowns and kids, constitute the regular bettors, i.e those that do it regularly, both professionals (those whom make a living off of this) and semi pros/novices (those who make yearly sizable profits of this or just a few bucks). Either way, this crowd tends to be more knowledgeable of the sport and biz than your millions of casual bettors (joe pub, "office" bettors. Again, sports betting 101, forget the silly terminology of sharps, steam etc. Books make money on Vig and DO NOT give a damn which side win as the math shows over time, they're profit is GUARANTEED. They simply need to even out the bets as much as possible, hence line movements. The line here has moved down to entice Jets money because MOST of the money coming in is on the bears. So if you are a black helicopters are coming to put us in camps, tin foil hat type, then you should think the the books would want the jets to win, don't worry about the cover forum opinion.
Now the game itself, If you think the bears missing key personnel at LB, seconday, two guys off the Oline (cutler;s achilles heal, running for dear life, hurrying throws) and special teams, going coast to coast to face another physical D and an offense that can run the damn ball, then more power to you.
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Posted:
#13
Quote Originally Posted by Roboduck:
3/4 of public bets are on the Bears.....Who cares about the forum? Really dude? Where do u get ur info?
3/4 of public bets are on the Bears.....Who cares about the forum? Really dude? Where do u get ur info?
Says the guy who last night berated everyone who took the OVER in the Pitt/Car game in the first quarter. THEN....when it went over, tried to cover his moronic stupidity by saying he was just doing a JINX thread, and that he had the over.....DUDE, no one believes anything you say or think after that.
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Posted:
#14
Quote Originally Posted by LineKiller28:
Id like a stab at this:
Id like a stab at this:
A forum like this sans the clowns and kids, constitute the regular bettors, i.e those that do it regularly, both professionals (those whom make a living off of this) and semi pros/novices (those who make yearly sizable profits of this or just a few bucks). Either way, this crowd tends to be more knowledgeable of the sport and biz than your millions of casual bettors (joe pub, "office" bettors. Again, sports betting 101, forget the silly terminology of sharps, steam etc. Books make money on Vig and DO NOT give a damn which side win as the math shows over time, they're profit is GUARANTEED. They simply need to even out the bets as much as possible, hence line movements. The line here has moved down to entice Jets money because MOST of the money coming in is on the bears. So if you are a black helicopters are coming to put us in camps, tin foil hat type, then you should think the the books would want the jets to win, don't worry about the cover forum opinion.
Now the game itself, If you think the bears missing key personnel at LB, seconday, two guys off the Oline (cutler;s achilles heal, running for dear life, hurrying throws) and special teams, going coast to coast to face another physical D and an offense that can run the damn ball, then more power to you.
LOL. In many instances they certainly do care who wins. They may boost a line up a pt or so to draw in some sharp money when 90% of the public is on a favorite, but if their power ratings have a team as a 6 pt favorite, they're not going to make the line 9 just to draw in equal money. They'd get slammed with sharp money. They'll gladly take their chances and root for the non public dog.
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Posted:
#18
I noted that they try to even money out AS MUCH as possible. Certainly when they're money is uneven they will have a favorite. If their business is viable, they are legit with deep pockets to take cyclical hits, the math guarantees their profit. They're business model does not revolve around "reverse line movement" like you seemingly propose. These are corporations and are run as such. Now the local bookie is a whole different story, he can bait and switch and tweak all day long. Lines today are spit out by computer, not Carmine in the back room of the butcher shop thinking of way t trick you. Sharps (or regulars first) then the line moves by way of public till gamestart. My source is a friend who worked at Mirage book from 98-2007. Much to your chagrin, they are not in the business of playing line games, as enough idiots throw money on parlays, teasers, props, etc for them to Rake in a game even if a big fav hits...and they certainly DO NOT assess their number over one weekend.
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Posted:
#19
Quote Originally Posted by LineKiller28:
Now the game itself, If you think the bears missing key personnel at LB, seconday, two guys off the Oline (cutler;s achilles heal, running for dear life, hurrying throws) and special teams, going coast to coast to face another physical D and an offense that can run the damn ball, then more power to you.
all you need to know...plus the look ahead to the packers. Don't think this game will be close 0
Posted:
#20
^^^That's one thing i don't believe in, the look ahead
Are coaches looking ahead to a Packers tm that has been inept? Are half the coaches planning next week and disregarding this MNF game? Are the players saying to themselves, "forget this week, we have the Pack next week?"
I think not. Now I do believe the Jets cover easily, but I believe it has NOTHING to do with looking ahead...
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Posted:
#21
Quote Originally Posted by doliver517:
^^^That's one thing i don't believe in, the look ahead
^^^That's one thing i don't believe in, the look ahead
Are coaches looking ahead to a Packers tm that has been inept? Are half the coaches planning next week and disregarding this MNF game? Are the players saying to themselves, "forget this week, we have the Pack next week?"
I think not. Now I do believe the Jets cover easily, but I believe it has NOTHING to do with looking ahead...
It happens subconsciously not consciously, and if you have ever played sports at a high level or coached than you would know that it is an undeniable fact that this occurs. You can't force yourself to get emotionally charged, it happens naturally, and sometimes it doesn't happen (despite your wanting it to) when something more exciting is on the horizon. Not saying it will happen here, but it isn't really debatable that it does occur...
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Posted:
#24
Quote Originally Posted by doliver517:
^^^That's one thing i don't believe in, the look ahead
^^^That's one thing i don't believe in, the look ahead
Are coaches looking ahead to a Packers tm that has been inept? Are half the coaches planning next week and disregarding this MNF game? Are the players saying to themselves, "forget this week, we have the Pack next week?"
I think not. Now I do believe the Jets cover easily, but I believe it has NOTHING to do with looking ahead...
Indeed. Guys who talk about the "look ahead" angle at this point of a season are fools... the only time it is valid is the lead-up to the playoffs, where teams are resting key players.
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Posted:
#25
Quote Originally Posted by LineKiller28:
Id like a stab at this:
Id like a stab at this:
A forum like this sans the clowns and kids, constitute the regular bettors, i.e those that do it regularly, both professionals (those whom make a living off of this) and semi pros/novices (those who make yearly sizable profits of this or just a few bucks). Either way, this crowd tends to be more knowledgeable of the sport and biz than your millions of casual bettors (joe pub, "office" bettors. Again, sports betting 101, forget the silly terminology of sharps, steam etc. Books make money on Vig and DO NOT give a damn which side win as the math shows over time, they're profit is GUARANTEED. They simply need to even out the bets as much as possible, hence line movements. The line here has moved down to entice Jets money because MOST of the money coming in is on the bears. So if you are a black helicopters are coming to put us in camps, tin foil hat type, then you should think the the books would want the jets to win, don't worry about the cover forum opinion.
Now the game itself, If you think the bears missing key personnel at LB, seconday, two guys off the Oline (cutler;s achilles heal, running for dear life, hurrying throws) and special teams, going coast to coast to face another physical D and an offense that can run the damn ball, then more power to you.
Chicago to New York is "coast to coast"? Buy a map.
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