CD Newsletter Week 4

Dallas Cowboys -5.5 @ New York Giants  O/U 45

If there has ever been a game that is needed more this early in the season with a perennial playoff team, it’s the Cowboys. If this isn’t there get right game then they may be a lost cause this season. The Dallas defense, which has been their bread and butter in seasons past, has just imploded the past two weeks allowing a total of 72 points.

It’s good that Dallas has owned the Giants lately because they need any edge they can get right now to right the sinking ship. The Boys have won 6 straight over the Gints and 13 of the last 14. The Boys beat them twice last season, which isn’t much at this point, but it does reflect that they are able to beat up on a really less than stellar Gints team. Last year, the Boys visited the dilapidated MetLife stadium and they whooped dat ass 40-0. I don’t see that shit happening here, but if the Boys expect to start believing they can make the playoffs it has start this week.

Not sure if the Thursday game helps or hurts them here, but they get to lick their wounds and get on a gettin’ with an early win here this week if they can play to their expectations. I expect the Boys defense to be very angry here and who has quite frankly has not played to its potential the past two weeks.

Dallas is an NFL best 12-4 ATS after a loss since 2021 and the covered an NFL high 10.1 points in that scenario. This is not a good match up for the Gints, even at home. The Boys know how important it is to get this corrected and we will see a very focused ball club here on both sides of the ball. I'll be on the Boys large here to get'r done...

Don't forget that I am blindly setting up an under Thursday night fund which I plan on starting this week. Blindly taking every under from here on out and we will tally that shit up when we decide to.

I'm starting this shit but I don't know how far I will get...I have a business to run as well, but I'll try to post up as I run through these games.....maybe we need a pitch in affair this week as I was just asked to start the show...moving on to Bengals/Panthers

Cincinnati Bengals -4.5 @ Carolina Panthers  O/U 48

I said it last night that the Bengals may be the best 0-3 team. Meaning, they are the best offensive 0-3 team right now because no team can really be good if they are O’fer…

What we have here is a failure to communicate….is what Burrow might be saying if he could fucking tell his defense to fuck off. The offense is not a problem. They are scoring points, but their defense is letting them down big time. Daniels threw for 243 yards and 2 touchdowns. Fuck dat….

So, we have carrot top coming back to play his old team. Dalton goes out and just tears up a Raiders defense that had just gone on the road and beat the Ravens. What? Yeah, Raiders show talent in pushing around the Ravens and then look like gerbil piss at home against the lowless Panthers. This is parody at it’s finest right here.

So, does Dalton step up and pick apart his former team or does he come back to reality this week against his former team. I said last night that I thought the Bengals were worse off with Tee Higgins coming back last week, but only for that game. Higgins ended up having 39 yards on 3 receptions. I expect that to change with this matchup.

I don’t have a lot of stats for this game, but just based on my naked eye and a couple of ballz hanging out, I see a better defensive effort with the Bungles this week or I see the Panthers regressing back to the shithole that they are.

Advantage to Burrow and his bleached ass hairdo. They will get there points and expect Tee Higgins to be on point this week with picking up well over a 100 yards.

Ride the better cat here….meow  

Denver Broncos @ New York Jets -7.5  O/U 38

Are the oddsmakers serious here. A tick more than a touchdown favorites. Are the Broncos going to be placed in a dark room while Rodgers contemplates his navel here. I mean, do I see this happening….maybe. Can the Broncos put together back to back complete games on the road? Ah, that’s the reason here. Nobody is believing the Broncos can duplicate that effort they made against the Bucs in stealin’ der booty last week.

The key here is the J-E-T-S defense. Is Bo gonna find his bro Luke here in the city that never sleeps or is he gonna be on his ass showing off those daisy dukes of his….I’m siding with Boss Hog on this one and riding with the books. They threw that hook out there to deter people from taking the little green machine, but they get it done this week again.

The talent gap between Rodgers and Bo is worlds apart and the defense of the Jets is way more talented than that of the Broncos. One problem for the Jets is that losing RT Morgan Moses will hurt them on their offensive line, but Rodgers can get rid of the ball so quickly that it might not matter. Expect the Broncos D to be a half second to a second too late in getting to Aaron and that does not bode well for the back shoulder throws.

All five underdogs of six points or more won outright last week. That includes the Broncos in their victory over the Buccaneers. I’m not expecting anyone to light the scoreboard up, and I don’t expect anyone to turn off their pornos to watch this game, but I will expect to hear more chants of “Aa-ron! Rod-gers!” this week as they win by 13…

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans -7  O/U 45

What is there to say here….Jacksonville is in a lowly place and surfer boy needs a haircut. Doesn’t get any easier this week for the weak, week, bleek ass Jags. This team is in disarray right now and their golden boy is partly to blame. Blondy is enjoying himself and laugh with his huge payday and he has done what again? The bloke had a QB rating of 65.5 against the Bills last week. WTF? Etienne had 68 yards rushing. Are we to expect that the Jags are all of the sudden supposed to pull themselves together and play as a unit this week on the road in consecutive games. Not so fast my friend.

Even though the line is posted at 7 right now, I believe it opened at 6, but I’ll let you fuckers fact check that as I work with numbers all day long so I may be off but it doesn’t matter. Texans have statistical edges al lover the place and these are two teams going in different directions.

Put the wraps on the Jags as the cats are kitty litter…

Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears -2.5  O/U 41

I have made it very clear that I am not a fan of Caleb at the pro level. I know a lot of you fuckers like the Bears and I had high hopes for them, but they are turning out to be who we thought they were, and we let’em of the hook…Don’t get me wrong, Caleb could potentially turn into something in the future but for the now and immediate future he is going to continue to struggle. Not every game, as he can still sling it with the best of them but the Rookie to Rookie hook up between him and Odunze just ain’t gellin for thus far. They can’t protect Caleb and that is part of the Bears problem. This, combined with no running game spell disastrous for a Rookie QB. Gotta have a running game early in career until he gets used to the speed of the game. His internal clock needs to speed up but he can’t make the necessary adjustments right now. What is really killing the Bears right now, and this cannot be underestimated, is the loss of Keenan Allen. DJ Moore has been excellent but the complimentary receiver who has uber talent is Allen. Once he comes back this team should look a lot different.  

The Rams, well, they have too many injuries right now as well and this team is not the same without Nacua and if Kupp is still injured to then I don’t know how they prevail here. It is possible they get a valiant effort with Stafford, but too many key injuries. Defense is still solid, but I like the Bears defense just a bit better and with them playing at home I give them the edge. We may just see a defensive battle here at Soldier field as I’m still trying to figure out how the teams are going to put together sustaining and productive drives in what should be a bit more running than passing here.

For the Bears, shorten the throws even more for Caleb. More screen passes and easy slant patterns.  He is getting used to throwing the long ball too much and if he can control that here in this matchup the will neutralize the pass rush. Caleb doing Caleb things as he did with the Trojans. He’s looking for the highlight reel as this is what he did at USC. It’s not the same game in the pros as it is in the college’s so he need to control himself and take the short out routes. This will be more productive than he realizes and for god sakes, someone please tell Caleb he is not trying to put together a highlight reel as he already made it into the pros. Settle down and become a sleestack and expect better results. Bears eek out a win here…

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers -2.5  O/U 44

Malik Willis, what can I say. The kid is a stud right now. Kid has some grit to him. I mentioned this last week or week before but this kid is gonna fuck around and get himself a starting position on another team if he keeps this up. He has shown outstanding control with the ball and his decision making has been exceptional since coming in for Love. I don’t know what the word is on Love returning, as I think it is too soon, but why bust the chemistry up with what Willis has going on right now. Let the kid play this out and let Love rest his knee.

I don’t know which way to side with a team here, but what interests me is the total. I do feel this line is a bit inflated based. Both defenses are giving up an average of 11 PPG so far, which is stellar. It’s the black and blue division ball buster type of game and even though I am hyped up on this Willis kid, this ain’t no Titans or Colts. What really has me liking the under her is Sam Darnolds knee injury. I’m sure he gives it a go, but how bad is it. We need a little worker to be inside to tell us what the heel is going on with Darnolds knee. Anybody got lil Troy’s phone number? Maybe we can get his ass up in his knee and give us a report, that is, if he can get off his scaly scalp. C’mon tiny Troy, we need you.

If this line drops another smidgen I will be riding the under like a Diddy Freak Off…  

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons -1.5  O/U 42.5

What are the oddsmakers smoking here? Whatever it is pass that shit along because that’s some kripky kind….I don’t see how or why the Falcons are favored here. What am I missing?

Well ,the only thing I can think of is that the oddsmakers are betting on the overreaction of last weeks games. The Saints are the far superior team and the Falcons, I don’t think, are that good. Yes, I’m still reeling that they didn’t kick a field goal for the cover and what appears now to be a chance to win it and just about the four minute mark, but that is just a bad coaching decision.

The Saints only tallied 89 rushing yards on 29 attempts against the Iggs. That’s the reason for the win, I believe. That, and Carr just didn’t hit his deep threats like he had been doing. I was on the under in that game, which easily prevailed, and that was one of the keys for me. Containing Kamara is always key to beating the Saints. IMO, this is why Carr has looked so good thus far. He has a running game now. That opens everything up. And, not just a running game, but Kamara out of the backfield is a great threat.

Falcons played well against KC the other night, but it was apparent that the defense was getting to Cousins in the second half, which was the difference in the game, aside from the bone head coaching decisions. I think the Saints are better defensively than the Chiefs and I expect the Saints to have a better offensive performance than a measly 12 points. Kamara will be utilized more out of the backfield and should pick up over a 100 yards easily on the ground. Don’t get it twisted, the Saints are missing Taysom Hill. He is a threat in many ways and when he comes back, which not sure if he was cleared this week or for next, this will be a different team and will have more consistency on the offensive side. They just ran into a prepared defensive team in the Iggs last week. It happens.

I believe the wrong team is favored here, but it could also just be the bait the oddsmakers want us to think as the Saints I am sure are the square play…haven’t made up mind here just yet…

I have to pick this shit up tomorrow...work and bullshit happening...

Well done so far, thanks for pinch hitting 

FYI, just know that at some point you will have to get to the Titans and Dolphins game. Bless your soul

Gals / Gints  We all know playing @ home on Thursday is a nice advantage but the short week may be good for Cowboys to get outta Dodge and put Sunday in the rear view. I believe Gals lack of a running game is almost as much a problem as anything. Was CD Lamb antics just another example of a spoiled athlete when things don't go his way or real frustration of losing. I mean chances are he might not be who he is without Dak. 

As for the assessment of how shitty the Bengals defense was, I don't disagree. Just keep in mind that both starting DT's were out last game. BJ Hill and Sheldon Rankins. Those dudes are really good, both have hamstring injuries. Yet unknown if they're playing 

Alright, let's see if I can't finish this up without any employee interruptions....Week 4's newsletter is on layaway and almost paid for...next up Eagles/Bucs

Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers  O/U 45

Hi oddsmakers….how you doin’….I see what going on here, so don’t think I didn’t notice. Installing the Iggs as a 2.5 point road favorite over a Bucs team that looked lights out the first 2 games and faltered last week. The Iggs on the other hand go and win a tough road game against the Saints, in a close one, and are expected to now go into Tampa as a favorite and do the same. Okie dokie….

The Iggs have WR A.J. Brown, WR Devonta Smith, RT Lane Johnson and CB Darius Slay hurt were hurt last week. AJ appears to be questionable, as well as Smith who is in concussion protocol. Lane Johnson is also in concussion protocol. Slay looks to be back for this contest. The Iggs have been itchin’ to get Brown back as he is critical to the offensive performance to the team. Even though the Iggs offense looks a bit out of sorts right now, I do believe Brown is a major reason why. Saquan has been phenomenal up to this point. Some even saying he could be the best offensive player of the year. I said some, not all you heathens, and these are critics words not mine. So early in the season, this is like rating US Presidents in the history of time when not even a decade has past after they have served. Who does that?

Needless to say, the Bucs took a shocking defeat to the Broncos last week. It’s the NFL, it happens. Lest we not forget, the Bucs knocked the Iggs out of the playoffs last year in a convincing 32-9 win. If anyone recalls that game, the butt pirates blitzed Hurts continuously and fucked up his booty so bad that he couldn’t take any more tush push’s. Mayfield has top weapons to throw to in Evans and Godwin. A very dynamic duo indeed and Baker should find himself fortunate that he has these two.

We all know the NFL is a game of matchups, so pay close attention to the Iggs corners in this one as they matchup with the Bucs WR’s. In particularly, rookie CB Quinton Mitchell going up against either Evans or Godwin. This kid has no idea what’s about to happen, as guarding these wideouts for any team is tough enough, but this will be a challenge for him today. He is going to be picked on, and rightfully so. If Slay does not go for the Iggs, this kid will draw top assignment in guarding one of these two on every play. How? No way he can contain one of them, let alone both. Pay attention to Slay and whether he returns or not, as this could be a critical factor in this game.

Variables here with this one, but the Iggs will be blitzed again just like last years playoff game. If they can block and give Hurts even just a half second longer to see his reads, I believe they prevail here. If Brown plays, then I would most definitely see the Iggs pulling off the victory. Watch the O/U, as we may see a high scoring affair here if Brown plays. The Bucs are gonna get their points, so the Iggs will need to keep up.

I believe the oddsmakers know what’s up here with the setting of this line. The typical square will jump on that Bucs receiving points, but I will side with Vegas here and expect the Iggs to prevail with a high scoring close win.

Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 @ Indianapolis Colts  O/U 40

Another small road favorite…Let’s do this. Pitt has been over performing, while the Colts have been underperforming, IMO. Is it time to start considering the Steelers as contenders with their 3-0 start. Someone challenged in here about the Steelers defense being legit, not just this year, but for many years. I don’t know, but the defense looks pretty solid to me this year again.

Fields has played well enough to secure those victories as well. I mean, let’s face it, after the Bears cut him loose most expected for him to just fall off and go away to Canada or something, but apparently Canada has enough moderatos that he was not needed. The Steelers has resurrected him a bit thus far. Wilson who again? Enjoy that calf buddy and tell your wife I said, What’s up, call me? Can fields go on the road with an angry Colts team and prevail? Ummmm……

The Colts have a running game with Taylor. Kid is just a special all purpose back. Just a matter of time before he breaks out with a big game and I think he does so here. The Colts are not as bad as the 1-2 record and the fact that they get the Steelers at home is a big advantage. If the Colts can establish the run, then they have a good chance to upset here, although I wouldn’t call this much of an upset as the Steelers on the road playing the blue man group is a tough spot.

The Steelers regress this week and the Colts put together a complete all around game. I don’t see this one close as the line indicates. Colts by double digits here. A little surprised at how high the total is, so I would lean to the over just based on the facts that the oddsmakers have this a hair too high, which leads me to believe this limps over the total.    

New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers -10  O/U 39

No, no, no New England. Banged up or not, the 49ers are an all around complete team in every facet of the game. They can lose players here and there and they just step up and excel. Sure, they are 1-2, and the injury bug has hurt them, but against a team like the Pats this should be victory formation by the third quarter.

The Pats scored 3 points against the Jets. Just three, (3), tres, 3, +3…3 fellas. It does not need to be said that we are not dealing with an offensive juggernaut here. Same as it was last season. Nothing changing here.

Now, the biggest question mark here, is Purdy’s status. He is listed as questionable, but that generally means they play. He has a sore back, but so do I and I came to work. C’mon Brock, take some alleve and walk it off. This is football and if you are compliaing of a sore back after 3 weeks of ball then you will never make it in this league. Get yourself a weightlifting belt and strap in, this is a sport of men not bitches.

Aiyuk, Aiyuk, Aiyuk….aside from Kittle this is the key player for the 49ers. He is healthy so e may be able to throw and catch it himself if Purdy decides to puss out. Not gonna lie, even though I said above that the 9ers excel with others are injured, missing Deebo is a big loos to the team. He is marked as doubtful with his calf, so he is prolly still a no go. Kittle, however, is questionable with his hamstring. If Kittle goes, which I believe he will, then then his threat is enough for the 9ers to prevail big here. Between him and Aiyuk, this should be plenty enough to beat the Pats by 20. If Purdy does not go, then the 9ers are left with Brandon Allen and god help us all, but hey, if you are in the stands he may complete a pass to you so be on the lookout as you may have a competition to put on your Topps rookie card.

9ers all the way…defense prevails with turnovers as well…

Washington Commanders @ Arizona Cardinals -3.5  O/U 50

Do we zig or zag with the Commanders? Well, they looked really solid against a lifeless Bengals D, but then again so did the others the first two weeks, while the Cards just got beat up by a very good team in the Lions last week.

Unfortunately for Daniels and the Redskins, the Cards ain’t no Bungles defense. He will not shred the defense like we saw he did with Cincy. That is a fact. If it happens, I will eat crow, or is it Raven, but I don’t see this happening. The Skins, and yes I like the name Redskins better than this bullshit Commandos, are an up and down team. Jekyll and Hyde. Sure, they will put together performances like we saw Monday night, but they are not consistent enough to sustain that level of play from game to game or stretches of games. Daniels had a QB rating of 141.7 on Monday night..world class. Ground game was working as well which helped the looks down the field that Daniels got.

What we do know is that the Redskins are 2-1, while the Cards are 1-2. The records even up here this week. The Skins are fifth in the league averaging 153.7 yards on the ground. There defense is giving up over 377 yards per game thus far this season. That ranks them 29 in the league and I expect that number to implode higher again this week as Murray picks them apart. The cards are fourth in the league in scoring at 27.3 ppg. There defense is middle of the road at 16 in points allowed.

I see the Cards taking this one rather easily and expect the scoreboard operator to be quite busy…

Cleveland Browns @ Las Vegas raiders -1  O/U 37.5

Is it even legal for Watson to be in Vegas? I mean, how is this fuckstick going to keep his dick in his pants out in sin city. Whether they come out with a win or not, is there a bet out there that Watson comes out of Vegas with another lawsuit from yet another female? If so, jump on that right away. This guy is one dick pick away from ending his career…

I like that the oddsmakers are throwing out the Raiders as favorites. This is everything the league warned about when granting an NFL team out in the desert.

Watson has a completion percentage of just 57.8 through 3 weeks. That’s less than the amount of lawsuits he is juggling. Not a lot of positive news coming from the Brown camp, and they severely miss Chubb. Until Cubby comes back this team should not be trusted. Now, Cooper is questionable with an undisclosed injury, which means he most likely has a herpes flare up and is waiting on his ointment.

The Raiders on the other hand have no running game. Seems to be a theme around the league. Zamir White is RB1, and quite frankly just because he has a Z in his name does not make him special. If the Raiders have any chance on winning, and not just this week, they have to establish a running game and take the pressure of the QB positions, which right now is still being made. White has 32 carries for 102 yards….that’s dead last in the NFL…friggen laughable, and they beat the Ravens on the road..lol

The offenses of both teams have struggled immensely. Raiders ranked 19 and Browns ranked 25 in points scored through 3 weeks. That’s just not acceptable. Watson should have a better game than whoever the Raiders have out there.  

I always have high hopes for the Raiders every season, as they are my team. But as soon as that first game of the season kicks off and the clock hits 14:59 in the 1 quarter it starts to set in that this will just be another ho hum year….Take the Brownies here

Ah, another gracious bard. Cheers.

Kansas City Chiefs -8 @ Los Angeles Chargers   O/U 39

This game really boils down to Herbert’s status. I see that he is still questionable, but if he does not play then I don’t give the Chargers much of a chance here. However, the Chiefs have not looked like world beaters either and the Chargers defense is fairly decent even though they struggled a bit against Fields last week, but on the road.

The Cheifs have not covers this high of a spread yet this season, so this would be the first for the infant season if they do. Maholmes is 8-2 as a starter against the Chargers. If Herbert does not go they are down to Dobbins.

Betting trends:

• The Chiefs are 2-1 against the spread this season.
• The Chargers are 2-1 against the spread this season.
• The OVER is 2-1 in the Chiefs’ three games this season.
• The UNDER is 3-0 in the Chargers’ three games this season.
• The Chargers are 1-4 without Justin Herbert since he was drafted.
• Patrick Mahomes is 8-2 straight up against the Chargers in his career.
• The Chargers are 1-0 ATS at home this season.
• The Chiefs are 1-0 ATS on the road this season.

Asking the Chiefs to go on the road and cover the 8 is significant, even if the Herbert doesn’t go for the Chargers. The problem is, where is the offense going to come from for the Chargers? Even with Herbert, where? Because the Chargers will have a hard time scoring and the Chiefs will not, this looks like a blowout waiting to happen.   

With all due respect, the spread of KC -8 in Los Angeles tells us that Herbert isn't playing. 

Other than that, tremendous previews of every game so far. Lots of info, salute!

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens -2   O/U 46.5

The premiere matchup of the week. Mafia vs 1999 Top Flooring Salesman of the year….should be a laminate one.

Josh Allen continues to do Josh Allen things. When he’s good he’s lights out and when he’s bad, well, he has the mafia. Against the jags he had a QB rating of 142.1. Was it just an all out outstanding performance by Allen, or was it simply that the Jags were just no match and have completely fallen apart.

The bills are averaging 37.3 points ppg. They rank 14 in the running game and have only one turnover so far in the young season. The Bills are distributing the ball well and seem balanced. They have 7 passing touchdowns and 6 on the ground. The Bills sit at 7 in the league in opposing scoring. And are giving up 16 ppg. They are holding teams to 4.7 rushing per attempt. They are ranked 8 in passing yards allowed. These are very good numbers. I know it’s early, but they are on the cusp of lowering those numbers with the games left if they can keep Allen healthy.

The Ravens are 11 in the league in scoring, with 23.7 ppg. They rank 10 in the league in passing defense. The ground game for the birds has them ranked 1 in the league. No big surprise there with a running QB. Ravens D is ranked 15 in the league and their scoring offense has them at 25 averaging 26 ppg.

This game boils down to containment of Jackson, just as every game really does with this team, IMO. Is the Bills defense sound enough to plug the gaps to keep Jackson in the pocket. The answer, NO. It helps that the Ravens are at home, but Jackson runs wild this week. The Bills are not fast enough nor disciplined enough to keep the pocket close enough to Jackson for him to make his bad decisions. Jackson will find that running lane up the middle as he does so many times. It’s almost laughable that teams cannot prevent this as they try to rush him from the outside. You have to plug those gaps up and force him to run outside. In having said that, you also need players fast enough to trip him up once he gets outside though as well.

This game won’t just trouble the Bills with Jackson and his legs, but he will also find many open receivers down field. I believe this is a ripe spot to be on the birds and against the undefeated Bills. We will see a very focused team in the Ravens and they should come out and stomp on the Bills in a blowout.

Lay the wood with the Ravens this week and free flooring for everyone…