CD Newsletter Week 13

Bernie Kosar....

 Denver still -6.5 -102 at FanDuel. It seems there’s a late push on Denver.  They scrimmaged Green Bay this summer and held their own.  I think they can control The Browns.

Not only is McCaffrey going on IR, so is Jordan Mason. And d lineman Kevin Givens.

Mash unit

@undermysac

 SF was pushing all their players last night.

The icy field conditions took their toll on the walking wounded.

I'm mentally on the Broncos winning this. Monetarily, I'm invested in the Broncos ML on a parlay.

The line is at -7 on my book. It was at -6.5 earlier in the day. I would've loved this mythical (?) -5.5, though. However, once bottom feeder teams seem to be playing closer games now and covering the spread. Browns still have a good defense (although I haven't checked the injury report) and they actually have a quarterback who can keep you in games. I'm content with what I have on the line already, but if anyone has any compelling arguments either way, I'm all ears.

EDIT:  It's -7, but at +105. I just noticed that they have an "Adjusted Lines" option, in a separate section. Nothing I like too much though.

*insert Brandon Staley brought the injury curse with him to the 49ers joke*

But, really, something's going on with all them California teams, as the Chargers and Rams are all "working through something," as Jim Harbaugh would say.

Week 14 look ahead bets:

Bears +6(-110) *3.30/3.00

Bears ML(+205) *1.00/2.05

Chargers +4(-108) *2.00/1.85

Chargers ML(+180) *.50/.90

Locked in

Chiefs get their first loss of the season. 

@iConsciousness

 I hate the line movement from 2 weeks ago till today on the Broncos and Browns game. As I, everyone here, the public, and their grandma's all have the Broncos kicking the Browns ass. And they should.

Then why did they drop it to 5.5 after the -7 look ahead lines? It was obviously going to get back to 7 and most books have.

The books will need the Browns big time tonight. 

But hopefully it doesn't matter at all.

 

?

I love your enthusiasm, and it's engrained in the Chargers DNA to always play the Chiefs tough. They got the horses on defense to win this, despite the injuries. And maybe Denzel Perryman and Cam Hart come back for this.

I'm worried about the offense though. Ladd McConkey got banged up with a shoulder injury and Harbaugh gave the usual "he's working through something" response when reporters asked about him. I'm not sure where the offense comes from. I'm surprised the Chargers are only at +4 playing in Arrowhead, though. Ballsy bet, and can honestly say I love it. 

I read about your Bears angle. It's not like they're not in all of their games until the very end, so they're bound to pop one of those close games in the win column.

If the Browns have an answer to Nix, then they most certainly can keep it close. Nix can beat you with his legs, so they'll have to contain those edges. He throws smartly, from what I've observed. He's only thrown 6 interceptions. I haven't looked up when those were thrown, but he's grown since the Chargers played them earlier in the season, so if most of those were earlier on, then that's some insight on how well he protects the ball. I suspect a lot of his scrambles are when protection breaks down or he sees nothing downfield.

One thing I can say, throughout most of this football betting season, the obvious bet turns out to be the one that really does win at the end. Just like most of the forum overthinking the Bills-49ers game last night. 

This is all you need tonight 

 

Chubb TD / Browns +7.5 / Nix O½ INT / O37.5

 

+686

 

@trainwreck66

 I meant at home

Browns passing game is working.

If I could, I might try to buy out of Denver minus the points.

I can’t though.

I made my bed.

Expect a low scoring 2h, according to this:

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/2nd-half-points-per-game

It makes me think whoever has the lead at the end of the first half will win this game, barring any significant injuries.

TOTAL u21½-103 (2H CLE BROWNS vrs 2H DEN BRONCOS)

Let's go small here.  $52 to win $50.

2h :

 

Broncos -1  (10u ) 

 

 

 

 

  GL

I'm going to add a parlay -- Broncos ML/2H under   $25 to win $62

So two plays total:

TOTAL u21½-103 (2H CLE BROWNS vrs 2H DEN BRONCOS) - $52/$50
Broncos ML+2H under   $25/$62

Uh, so you're telling me both offenses decided to have explosive drives?

Nix-to-Mims: 98 yard TD
Winston-to-Jeudy: 70 yard TD

And both occurring within less than a minute of each other. Goodnight to both those bets.

Week 14 :

 

Vikings -5

 

 

brutal beat if they don’t come down and score for you here .

You deserved the win . Moore falling asleep not making contact with that defender .

Yo !

P.I. !

God damn . Fuck that shit . Sorry man . Was rooting for that to hit .