CD Newsletter Week 11

Anyone want to start talking about this dynamic now, as I think that there has to be either value on the Browns, Lions, or Bills. Not sure yet.

We know the state of the Bills is shakey recently. Will these b2b road game be  good or bad? They essentially lose a home game for the season. In the new era of a 17 game season, half the league will be screwed 8 to 9 on home games every year instead of the previous 8 n 8. The Bills were all ready set for 8 home, 9 away. Now they are 7 home 10 away, in a sense(I know neutral isn't technically "away").

That's a tough draw in the current afc north. Following Thanksgiving, they have 3 straight divisional  games. Starting at New England.

I'm certain we could probably squeeze some value out of some sort of futures bets if we put our collective noggins together. 

I keep track of division futures every week..  I believe Dolphins were +225 on Monday.  I thought about it since I'm sitting pretty with Tennessee +300 and KC -110, but I still think the Bills are the class there and have 1 win already vs Miami.    I haven't really dug into the Jets, they would have the sexy number to root for

That was wrong, Miami is 1 up on the Bills

Tannehill having a really good game.   Packers giving up some wide open stuff

You would think #12 has been doing this long enough to instinctively at least run away and not take that sack after being in the pocket for 22 minutes.

I bet on the titans I am not complaining, just saying, cmon man.......that is something that Malik Willis was doing at the end of the KC game

I hate Aaron Rodgers 

Great fixed thread in the mains, nothing specific but dude is gonna have a legit meltdown

"The Titans sport the 3rd best run D in the league allowing 3.9 ypa, and in their last 3 games allowing only 3.0. If the Packers deploy the run again, how will it fair?"

The Packers averaged 2.9 ypc last night.

Nobody expected Tannehill to go off, he had a game.

Glad I didn't bet because I would of then the under.

@BWS77

 they stopped Henry....and made Tanneyhill 

look like Dan Marino......

@Biscuiteater1

 Think about this......spread is -9.5 now.....

They scored 9 and 7 in their last 2 games.

This has to be uncommon...... a team laying more than they scored in both of their previous 2 games.  

I am already locked in at +10.5 and a little ML sprinkle at +288.  No turning back.

Alright sac, I got odds for AFC East:

Bills -190

Dolphins +225

Jets +1100

Pats +1600

Strength of Schedule remaining goes in reverse order of those (Pats toughest, Bills easiest), but all are currently sitting at .500 remaining at the least

Already talked about Bills having the B2B games in Detroit then 3 straight against the rest of the division

Jets have B2B on road against Minny and Buff, then finish doing a B2B roadie again with Seattle and Miami

Phins have Houston after the Bye, then 3 straight Road games @SF/@Chargers/@Bills, then finish GB/@NE/Jets.  That's a bitch

Pats have road games in Vegas, Minny and Arizona, Bills twice, Jets/Phins and Bengals

Pats are tasty at that number, but 2 games down to Miami and 1 H2H loss already is a steep hill to climb IF Tua stays healthy.  Could be worth a sprinkle I think.  They should hit 2 of those 3 road games, take down the Jets again and hope for a split with Buffalo puts them at 9 wins.  Then it's down to the game with Miami and Cincy, best case going to 11?

@BWS77

 Gotta think the Bills go 2-0 next 2, and Phins beat Houston after the bye, odds won't change much?

Could the Bills possibly flop vs the Browns or Lions?

I'm definitely leaning the Lions next week, I love their o line and the Eagles are missing that stud DT

I'd like to thank the nfl for not forcing me to drink early this sunday.   

@undermysac

 Suh will help until he returns...

Unless Allen's arm falls off there is no way.   Browns and Lions could combine teams and Bills are still -7

fact

NFL 49-40-5 (+18.17)

Cowboys -1.5(-110) *2.50/2.27

Jets +4.5(-110) *1.00/.91

Bears +4(-110) *1.00/.91

Lions +3.5(-110) *1.00/.91

Ravens -11.5(-110) *1.00/.91

Lions 1H +2.5(-110) *1.10/1.00

Lions 1H ML(+135) *.40/.54

Patriots ML(-170) *1.00/.59

Rams ML(+130) *.75/.98

I am betting on a terrible team in the ultimate buy low spot.

The Saints are not a good team either, and their injury list is long. Some folks seem to forget that Andy Dalton is the quarterback. He is so hard to back as a favorite imo.

Stafford had last week off, he should be rested. Without Kupp, maybe it'll make him play qb instead of going with his default outlet. 

With guys like Aaron Donald, Bobby Wagner, Jalen Ramsey, Allen Robinson, and yes Mathew Stafford, if there ever was a game of vets to rally it's this one. Fork in the road, which path do they take?

I grabbed a couple lookaheads that just got released for next week:

Giants +7 @ Dallas @ -110 (Turkey Day).....this line might not age well depending on Sunday, but I think a TD at this point in the season between these 2 teams is too much.  I would be shocked if this line closes -7 or higher

Chargers -2.5 @ Cardinals @ -110 Sunday 11/27 ..... I feel the same here......LAC line is already 2 points worse this week than when I got it at -7, and I feel like the same may happen on this -2.5.  I would be shocked if this line closes -2.5 or lower.

This week these are the games I have more on.  I bet a little on every game just to prove a stupid stubborn point to myself, but if I was being selective, these are all I would bet:

Tenn +3.5 @ +105 and ML @ +155

Chargers +7 @ -105

Pats ML, -2.5, and -3 assorted flavors -168/-135/-110

Bears +3 @ +100

Lions +3 @ -105

Vikes +1.5 @ -105

Commies -2.5 @ -105

Niners -7 @ -135

That is all.  Then UConn and Utah tomorrow.....   and probably a bunch of NCAA hoops in between......

I meant I would be shocked if that giants/dallas line closed at +7 or higher, not -7

@JDD

 Looking at some lines as well, I usually would have fired by now but the increasing injuries at this juncture are tricky. 

Kinda wanting to bet the Dolphins off a bye. Also Seattle but that hook looks so damn ugly.

Tidbit of the day:

Denver Broncos totals have came up short by 104 points so far this year.

@undermysac

 reading my mind......I wanted that seahawks line too......maybe a raider win tomorrow gets us there

the 10.5 on fins bothersome too.....they have been so good to me though.....and they are motivated, guy in the bills armor lately.......