CD Newsletter Week 11

Teams on bye: Jaguars, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Seahawks 

TNF:

Titans +3(-115) @ Packers(O/U 42)

The Packers seemed to have saved their season for a week by beating the Cowboys as 4.5 dogs at home, in OT. The public and a whole lot of other people were on the Cowboys who were coming off a bye. We speculated that sharp $ would come in on the Packers and it did. Hugh reminded us of the painful ways that Rodgers has beaten the Cowboys in the past, and that theme continued. 

The Packers committed to the run here, something they haven't done since beating the Bears in week 2. Will they keep up this gameplan on a short week? I don't see why not, especially when they lost 5 straight games before last Sunday. 

The Titans keep winning ugly games. Metrics say that they shouldn't be winning most of these games. Vrabel knows how to get his team ready for any breed of team. Winning 6 of their last 7, and going 1-1 with a QB who completed 11 total passes in those 2 games. All though, if you take out KC(the 1 close loss), the Titans schedule has been nothing short of facing the JV of the nfl.

The Titans sport the 3rd best run D in the league allowing 3.9 ypa, and in their last 3 games allowing only 3.0. If the Packers deploy the run again, how will it fair?

Green Bay is 27th allowing 4.8 ypa, and just allowed 5.1 to the Cowboys. This will be their 2nd game without LB Rashan Gary.

It's TNF, I think both teams will run often and we will be outdoors in the frozen tundra. We have a cold front coming to the midwest on Thursday. 

The only way I could play this would be the Under.

Lions +3.5(-115) @ Giants(O/U 46)

I have a position on the Lions, so I'll try not to be biased.

The Giants off a bye did not impress, albeit covering the spread. I was on the Giants for 2 units simply because the Texans are that bad. As odb mentioned in last week's thread, the Texans spoiled the cover on 4 different drives.

Saquon Barkley had 35 carries! Wtf was he reincarnated as Earl Campbell for a day? I got to think that he will not be going into this game in tip top shape.

Daniel Jones only attempted 5 runs for 24 yards. They've been holding him back from the run game since he got banged up earlier in the year. He was sacked 3 times and was efficient going 13 of 17 for 197 in a heavy run game plan. The Giants could take advantage of the Lions crappy run D, especially vs a running qb. But I'm not sure the gmen unleash Jones on the ground.

You know how I feel about the Lions O line. They still graded out well vs the Bears, when I saw the best effort of the year by the Bears D line(not saying much) last game. Goff has time to throw. And he is a big upgrade over Davis Mills. I believe he is the least sacked QB next to Tua.

The Giants are 7-2 with the Cowboys on deck. We may get them looking ahead here.

Coaching advantage goes to Dabol I'd guess. Both guys are of the motivated type.

Rams +3(-105) @ Saints(O/U 39)

How fast things have gone down the shitter for the defending SB Champs. They are 3-6, and have lost 5 of their last 6 games with the lone win coming vs the Panthers.

To make matters worse, Cooper Kupp tweaked his ankle really bad and is listed as doubtful. Will Stafford play 1 week after concussion protocol? The Rams can't run the ball. But hold my beer...

The Saints are nothing to write home about either. They managed 22 rushing yards yesterday. They are 3-7 and I think these darlings of some sharps out there have fallen out of their good graces. They were up against it vs Pitt yesterday, in what was an out of the park spot for the Steelers. Even BigD said that he might make Pitt his biggest play of the year, but didn't. I only had 1 measly unit on em. Hindsight...

Either way, this total is suggesting an ugly game between 2 bad teams. But the Saints have a winnable game here, the spread says so.

Eagles -8(-106) @ Colts(O/U 44.5)

Hard to make any moves as the Eagles are yet to play on MNF. But I seen this look ahead open at 11 I think? Maybe 10.5 but still, it has to be the difference from Sam Ehlinger to Matt Ryan back in the saddle.

It will be Jeff Saturday's home debut, and only second game as HC. You can't blame him for going with the vet Matt Ryan last week. But we have to imagine so much of that game was how bad the Raiders are.

The Eagles are undefeated and still should be after tonight(don't quote me, quote the spread).

The Colts did beat KC outright earlier in the year, with Ryan. I was somehow on that ML that week and don't remember why.

There will be a lot of variance with this Colts team moving forward so it'll be hard to bet on their games for me. All though the AFC South will get interesting if the Titans lose on TNF. Maybe the Colts will find new life with this absurd new coaching hire?

@undermysac

 Saints/Rams total of 39. Don't care who is QBing or what either team has been so far. On the Superdome turf at noon local time that is an easy over play. Watch that total shoot up. I played it giving -115 on the juice. No problem. These 2 defenses are tired of carrying the load in what strangely has become a meaningless game. These players aren't idiotic robots. They have ebbs and flows and this is a huge ebb tide for the defensive units. 2X play NO/LAR Over 39.

Sorry to interject, carry on. 

Commanders -2.5 @ Texans(O/U 40.5)

Another one where Washington plays tonight. The look ahead was also 2.5 and has not budged.

I'm guessing that any line movement will be determined on how tonight's game goes and if any injuries pop up.

The Texans are bad at about just everything except an ok defense and special teams.

The Commanders won 3 of their last 4, and have faced a much tougher schedule than the Texans.

The -2.5 looks like a lay up and this gives me pause.

The game feels like a dead nut under. Not sure I can do anything with this one.

I had this exact same thought in mind while typing, but forgot to type it out. At some point when someone has carried the heavier load for a bit, they will need a break.

Browns +9.5 @ Bills(O/U 47)

I lost money on both these squads last week. Who will pay me back this week? 

The Browns were out classed by Miami, and they generated ZERO pass rush against Tua. In a post game interview, a reporter asker Tua "how is your jersey so clean?". I'm convinced that the only way to beat Miami at this point is to pressure Tua, and the Browns failed miserably. 

Do we need to talk about the topsy derby game in Buffalo? The Bills had the spread covered for most of the game, until multiple random acts of variance just kept happening over n over.

So much of the Bills offense is generated by Josh Allen, and he has a gunslinger mentality reminiscent to Brett Favre. He'll win for you, and he'll kill you. 6 interceptions in his last 3 games.

I don't see a wr the likes of Jefferson on the Browns roster, so if you were to back the Bills here keep that in mind. The Bills division has become a power house of sorts, none of their divisional games will come easy.

I think they need this one more than the Browns. The Browns had a spark of hope after beating the Bengals, but I don't see them surpassing them or the Ravens. 1 more week till DeSean Watson though...

Hard # to bet, gun to head I'd bet the Bills at home.

Panthers +13 @ Ravens(O/U 43)

Line is off at Betonline and Bovada, so something is going on. Draft Kings is hanging a 13. As you know I bet this at -11.5 earlier today, so I feel as sharp as a spoon at the moment.

Ravens off bye. Harbaugh doesn't show mercy for any team, he keeps the foot on the pedal. He's been criticized in the past for going so hard in preseason and other games, when as a coach you have to manage your team's energy and health for future games. BigRed and Biscuit can attest, we see how many injuries they sustain. 

But I could care less as I only need them for this one game.

The addition of Roquon amongst other defensive starters coming back from injury last week, and Mark Andrews probable this week has them at almost full strength. 

The Panthers are going back to Baker Mayfield, as PJ Walker got hurt. After benching PJ Walker mid game, the game before, where Mayfield stepped in and played well in garbage time. And then they started PJ Walker again last game.

This reminds me when a baseball manager moves a pitcher in and out of the bullpen over n over and fucks with his schedule. Or when a guy from AAA gets called up on short notice.

That's enough for me to lay it here.

Speaking of defenses that are tired of carrying the load…. If the Broncos had scored 19 points per game, they would be 8-1.  19 points

Bears +3 @ Falcons(O/U 50)

Got Bears +4.5 last week.

Falcons on 10 days rest.

Looks like the books are catching up on Bears totals. Indoor game with 2 non existent defenses. 

If we're to bet the over here(as we should), can Marcus Mariotta match Fields on the ground? He doesn't have a strong arm, and this new offense has managed to devolve Kyle Pitts from their playbook. The dude is gigantic, and runs better than most WR's in this league.

Cordarelle Patterson is an ex Bear. He started the year out by lightning up fantasy boards. Then he got hurt, missed a couple, and has played one game since returning from that injury. I could see him having a game.

I mentioned a few times how the Falcons went 6-0 ats to start the year, since that worm has turned to 0-4 ats.

I don't think that they should be laying points to anyone. 

Crazy to think that the Falcons are in 2nd place in their division despite a 4-6 record. 

Raiders +2.5 @ Denver(O/U 41.5)

This is the worst game on the board. This is a game between 2 coaches who should be relegated back to a role as coordinators.

If Denver could only muster 10 pts out of their bye week, albeit vs a defensive genius in Mike Vrabel, will they ever fix their offense?

I guess you could say this would be the show me spot, as the Raiders can't stop a leaking faucet. 

Awesome post above by Lifebythedrop. That is an amazing bit. But could Denver be also tired of holding up their end of the bargain on defense at this point? It'll also be their 3rd game without Bradley Chub.

If you saw Derek Carr's post game interview it was moving. If there is any humanity left in that locker room, could they rally for him for at least this one game?

I can't suggest a play on this game side or total, talk amongst yourselves. 

Nathaniel Hackett's offensive playbook is on par with the average high school coach. I saw this coming from his time as the Jaguars OC and the placeholder for Lafleur and Rodgers in Green Bay. Russ Wilson doesn't throw over the middle because he can't see it. That's why he's never gotten production out of his slot receiver or tight ends. It's a match made in hell.

Josh McDaniels has one more win than Jeff Saturday this season.  When Blake Martinez retired last week in the middle of the season if I’m thinking what I think I’m thinking….I think there could be problems behind the curtain in Sin city

Does the NFL coaching community root against Jeff Saturday in Indy because he's not part of the system of climbing the company ladder? Tony Dungy had a great response to Joe Thomas' quote that hiring Saturday with no experience was an insult to head coaches who live and die football 24/7. Dungy simply said "That's not a requirement just a choice. Jim Caldwell and I coached a Super Bowl winner and we saw our kids more than twice a week." 

Cowboys -1/-1.5 @ Vikings(O/U 47.5)

I took Dallas -1.5 last week, and for a hefty 2.50 units. If this # flips, I think it will, I will add some to Dallas ML. I'll probably be biased on this one.

The # says it all. It's a buy low spot on the boys, and sell high on the Vikings. And the books know it. Any regular Joe who sees this line would ask "why isn't it Vikings -3?"

At this point, we have to trust all the metrics, dvoa and epa #'s when it comes to the Vikings. They can't be wrong about the Vikings every fuckin week. I study these #'s and watch the Vikings games. They are truly lucky in a lot of instances. 

But more importantly, this is not sustainable. These guys are going to need a break. Since week 2, they have had 7 straight one score games. And now coming off OT after b2b travel to the east coast.

Offensively, I think that they may try the Packers strategy and run at the Cowboys D, but I don't think they will be successful. When all else fails, they will throw the ball to Jefferson. And that's when Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons can play how they want to, and that's to rush the passer.

The Cowboys went into Lambeau vs a wounded dog in the Packers. It was a bad spot, and outdoors. The Cowboys will be in a dome here, even if not their own it's still in their comfort zone.

Since Mike Mccarthy has become the Cowboys coach, they are 6-1 with a winning margin of 13.86 points after a loss.

@Lifebythedrop

 McDaniels just got the dreaded vote of confidence from Mark Davis that he'll be coaching next season. 

Bengals -5 @ Steelers(O/U 41.5)

Bengals coming off a bye.

It's a road divisional favorite, and most wise guys(I'm assuming) will say it's Pitt or nothing.

They are coming off a tremendous defensive effort, and ran the living shit out of the ball. It was fitting after Getty posted that stat about Pitt's RB only having a few runs over 20 yards in his career.

A lot of things happened last week that was unexpected, but that stuff keeps us humble. The league changes often in a short 17 game season, coaches adjust.

I have no leans or angles in this game. Joe Burrow is a hard guy to fade, and the Bengals have an under the radar awesome defense.

I'll be all ears throughout the week about this matchup. 

SNF

Chiefs -7 @ Chargers(O/U 49.5)

Woa...7, really?

Am I having Deja Vu?

You gotta think that one of, if not both the Bolts WR's will be back for this game.

Home divisional dog catching 7 on prime time when Herbert is your qb, how can we not bet that? I don't want the Chargers as a fav, but as a dog they are good people. 

Talk me out of it.

Teams have 8 games left, seems like it's been a slog for 20-25 teams already and we're barely halfway.  

MNF

49ers -8 vs Cardinals(O/U 43.5)

This game is in Mexico. The stadium is higher elevation than Mile High in Denver. Getty made a good point that AZ is 1000 ft above sea level, so they may be more acclimated than the Niners.

The look ahead was -5.5, so I'm assuming that Kyler Murray won't be playing.

I haven't looked at much about the matchup yet. But once again it's a divisional game with a big spread. If this sucker gets up to 10 by any chance then you have to bet the Cardinals. 

We should look up the history of these Mexico games, as I'm thinking the over could be in play if defenses get gassed.

That's it. I'll post my record after tonights game, let's get the cover Washington 

Well done as usual old friend 

I’m also on the Over