Posted:
#376
@JDD
id be interested 
also, looking like the Midget is sitting again
CD Newsletter Week 11
Posted:
#379
@BIGDTITLE
If you PM me your email I will tell them to add you to the emails. Kind of a dead time right now but March Madness and the baseball 13 run pool is coming up soon.
13 run pool is pretty sweet. You pick a team, first team to score 0, 1, 2, 3.....10,11,12,13+ wins. Sounds easier than it is.
If more than one entry picks same team you split. Then once a team does it, you have 1 day to switch your team if you want, then the next round starts. Last year we got through like 5 rounds I believe, but you only pay once. As you can imagine it is rarely the chalk teams that always win. Fun little pool.
You will like these guys' pools. You get a lot of betting entertainment out of very little financial outlay, and someone else does the accounting.
Posted:
#385
line jumped a bit there......
I felt gross buying SF down to -7, but I am kinda glad I did now. only paid -135 at the time.
ML parlay with KC/SF for 1 unit is still live. When I did that yesterday the niner ML was -366.
Now one of my books has it at -470. other one -450.
Cmon baby, no surprises tonight......TCB
Might see if I can grab an Elijah Mitchell prop, my one book doesn't have props, and the other one only has McCaffrey, but this feels like a game where Shanahan may get ahead and limit McCaffrey, he is on a pitch count anyways.........Mitchell might get a lot of run. Kind of annoyed by this. Mitchell Anytime TD is -115. The book obviously knows. I would love it if there was something like a Mitchell over 35-40 yards. Snap call on that.
Who knows, maybe arizona wins. Maybe the niners have Montezumas revenge and shit the bed en route to a 24-23 loss and CMC sprains his ankle
Strong recommendation to anyone that can find one to go over on Mitchell yards prop if it is a reasonable number. Expected gamescript may make this a good play
Posted:
#388
Bets in for next week:
Bears +6 @ -105 for .5 units
LAC -2.5 @ -110 for 1 unit
LAC -3.5 @ -105 for 1 unit
TB -3 @ -116 for 1 unit
TB -3 @ -113 for 1 unit
Giants +7 @ -110 for .5 units (this isn't aging well)
Ravens -3.5 @ -112 for 1 unit
Lions +9 @ -105 for 1 unit
Very confused as to what I like for this Pats/Vikes game. My gut almost bet on the Vikes late last night when it dipped to -2.5 but was juiced.....now back to -3. IDK. Confusing game.
Adding a 10 pt tease option while this Niners game tonight is available. Niners/Dolphins/open spot.....@ -120
And LFG USA........I don't know a thing about soccer but it sure is fun to watch sometimes.....took USA +143 ML
Posted:
#391
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
@JDD Betcha that Fields isn't playing, that # says so. And that won't be enough to cover imo.
@JDD Betcha that Fields isn't playing, that # says so. And that won't be enough to cover imo.
@undermysac
I don't disagree with ya. Kinda why I went minimal.
Zach Wilson is playing. They had 10 punts and 9 completions yesterday, and the kid is mildly tone deaf at his presser.
Saleh will have a tough time keeping this locker room together imo. Where I could see the Bears rally around Semien, I could also see a Jets O Lineman or 2 not caring much about protection for the entire game
Trevor Semien is serviceable. I may bet the under too. lol
Posted:
#392
@JDD
They just faced Belichick.
The Pats have Judon, even I can't name a Bears DE. Our only bright spot on D is an undrafted rookie LB.
Getsy is going to scratch half his playbook without Fields, and most of the pass plays that Fields turns into runs won't be done by Siemian. Still no Herbert. Montgomery is tired. Our 3rd string RB Treston Ebner runs light.
I see a get right game for the Jets.
Posted:
#395
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
MNF 49ers -8 vs Cardinals(O/U 43.5) This game is in Mexico. The stadium is higher elevation than Mile High in Denver. Getty made a good point that AZ is 1000 ft above sea level, so they may be more acclimated than the Niners. The look ahead was -5.5, so I'm assuming that Kyler Murray won't be playing. I haven't looked at much about the matchup yet. But once again it's a divisional game with a big spread. If this sucker gets up to 10 by any chance then you have to bet the Cardinals. We should look up the history of these Mexico games, as I'm thinking the over could be in play if defenses get gassed.
MNF 49ers -8 vs Cardinals(O/U 43.5) This game is in Mexico. The stadium is higher elevation than Mile High in Denver. Getty made a good point that AZ is 1000 ft above sea level, so they may be more acclimated than the Niners. The look ahead was -5.5, so I'm assuming that Kyler Murray won't be playing. I haven't looked at much about the matchup yet. But once again it's a divisional game with a big spread. If this sucker gets up to 10 by any chance then you have to bet the Cardinals. We should look up the history of these Mexico games, as I'm thinking the over could be in play if defenses get gassed.
Well, do I stick to my guns? Clearly the books moved from 5.5 to 8 anticipating Murray not playing. Remember, the Niners didn't cover last week. So who or what moved this line from 8 to 10?
Is it people betting on the news of Colt McCoy? If so, this is how value is created on nfl lines. Personally, I think Colt Mccoy is a better qb than Murray in a lot of ways.
Posted:
#398
@undermysac
10 is a lot for any game......
even if the niners are up, with shanahan I would expect a lot of running, and the cards should no doubt get plenty of chances.
Mccoy is efficient. If this is your angle you may get a better live line if the niners go up early......just something to consider......niners up 7-0 and grab a cards +15.5, etc.....
Who knows......hopkins hurt. ertz out....CMC on unspoken pitch count....shanahan.....tough to know how it can play out....all I know for sure is the niners need this win to be in sole possession of first place in the NFC west, even though if they win, they and the hawks would both be 6-4 but they beat them straight up......so the only thing I think I can expect is shanahan to not take chances if he is ahead.
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