CD Newsletter: Playoffs??? Edition

Don't sell yourself short Mr. Pergo

A couple of

@dubz4dummyz

 I highly doubt the public comes in on the Cowboys. 

Hugh's fav time...'The Unreliables'.

The Cowboys are playing their fourth consecutive road game this weekend in the Divisional Round at San Francisco. Over the last 20 years, only two other teams have entered a playoff game on four consecutive road games:

2015-16 Steelers – PIT +7, Lost 23-16

2009-10 Ravens – BAL +6.5, Lost 20-3

The 49ers have won 11 consecutive games straight up entering their Divisional Round game. In the last 20 years, 16 teams have played a playoff game on a 10+ game SU win streak. Those teams are 8-8 SU and 3-13 ATS (including a 49ers win last w/e).

When the game is played in the Divisional Round or later, those teams are 6-8 SU and 1-13 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 7.7 PPG.

Which voodoo spell works?

@lbcake

Great post

Bigger data base for the 9ers trend....

Purdy the wildcard imo....he plays how he has been 49ers should win...now do they cover.....

@undermysac

 Sorry I more meant the huge cowboys  fan base pounding the number on Saturday night and Sunday ....

Prob not enough to move the line...but their should be more of those cowboys bettors than 49er bettors

@lbcake

 Thank you 

@lbcake

 Obviously the 49ers win but don't cover in a low scoring game.  Say 20-17. Of course the 17 assumes that Maher makes the extra point. It makes perfect sense. It really does. 

First play for me is Jax 1H +5. I think it works and then the game gets ugly from there. They may cover the +8.5 for the game and they may not. I'm not going to invest in that. I do believe that Pederson will want to get a leg up on Reid early. He knows the Jags offense has been too slow out of the gates and will fix it. KC doesn't tend to wake up until later and with a bye week they'll be rested but rusty. 

So does Harbaugh get to start next year with those extra timeouts?  

@Getty3

 KC 1H PR #4, Jax 1H PR #25

And then you got the Andy Reid off a bye master planner thing...

I'm kinda thinking U53 in this game, not sure yet.

NFL REG SEASON: 86-75-8 (+21.07)

PLAYOFFS 7-1 (+6.03)

FUTURES 0-2 (-1.50)

Futures:

AFC:

Chiefs(+250) *1.00/2.50

Bengals(+650) *1.00/6.50

Bills(+170) *1.00/1.70

NFC: 

Cowboys(+300) *1.00/3.00

Eagles(+165) *1.00/1.65

SB:

Chiefs(+500) *.50/2.50

Bengals(+1200) *.50/6.00

Bills(+350) *.50/1.75

Cowboys(+750) *.50/3.75

Eagles(+550) *.50/2.75

Added futures on the Bills and Eagles. I'm taking the risk of leaving the 49ers out, but the reason that I am is Brock Purdy. And if this kid continues to win, then God Bless him, we may be seeing the next Tom Brady for years to come.

Will assess my hedging options as the playoffs unfold. 

I got $550 invested in Bengals...   

AFC Champ:  +600    $150/900

Super Bowl:  +750  $200/1500

Lose In AFC Champ:  +450  100/450

Lose In Super Bowl:  +850  100/850

Current Lose In Divisional Round is -270, not worth it.  Would just take Bills ML at -240 if I go that route (but I won't).   In-game has been my best option.  Also have an Open spot in a parlay with NYG ML from last week for $100 that I could put Buffalo in, but that only pays $225.  Could be part of the plan, but the goal is to secure positive money despite Sunday's result

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2023/dexter-lawrence-heart-giants-defense

When we were watching the Giants/Vikings game, Hugh mentioned that Dexter Lawrence was unblockable. Correct. He even blew through double teams.

And he likes to line up right over the center. On the other side will be Jason Kelce. He grades out at 88.5 by PFF. Huge matchup, and I suspect a much tougher task for Lawrence than vs Garrett Bradbury(70.2), who had a 3 game layoff.

If there is one game that will result in a 38-27 type final it's the Chiefs/Jags. Both teams are very vulnerable to what the other does on offense. I don't/can't see a slugfest here. First game had 6 total turnovers but they're a double edged sword. Depends on where they happen on the field. Typically a turnover filled game results in more points scored than expected. That didn't happen in KC earlier. There will be turnovers again but this time they'll favor offensive possession. I honestly predict a track meet and wouldn't touch the under. 2 cents better than a penny. 

In their first meeting, where the Eagles scored 48, Dexter Lawrence had 1 tackle, and 1 qb hit.

In their second meeting, Lawrence did not play as many other NYG starters were rested.

@Getty3

Any chance the Getty's upset the Chiefs and 2 more of my futures tickets go up in smoke?

wtf  hahahaha

i just carry around the rookie card that you mailed me everywhere i go

got a necklace with it, wear it like a backstage pass?  

https://athlonsports.com/.amp/nfl/breaking-mike-mccarthy-announces-official-decision-on-kicker-brett-maher

Read somewhere that #1 seeds are 13-25-1 ATS in the Divisional Round.  If they are single digit favorites it’s even worse 8-24-1. 

Maybe that bye week isn’t an advantage?

Are you saying we have chance? I think we do. Beyond Mahomes magic which is very real, I don't see a significant difference between the two especially over the past month. Lots of people will assume the Jags got lucky last week and have hit the Peter Principle. I'm not convinced of that. KC is a team they can beat. If they advance, Buffalo will kill them.

The Bills, Bengals and Chargers managed a worse dvoa score of special teams than the Cowboys, despite Maher missing 4 extra points.

If things revert back to normal, as he may have just had a "bad day", his ranking by fg's and extra points combined is 4.7, which is 8th best of 32.

Robbie Gould is -5.1, which is 26th

Jets interviewed Nate Hackett for their open OC position. I could care less about the Jets but if you want to hire the excitable summer camp counselor you deserve to suck again next year.