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2015 Arena Football Playoff Time ..............................

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Posted: #1
Hey guys, whats happening ? 

It's Arena football playoff time and I thought I run my NFL Power Ratings and see what happens.

I've never tried this before, so I have no clue the results we'll see. I have no history, can't find any past stats to do comparisons, only can count on football being football, NFL or Arena league, we'll see.

So with those thoughts here we go...................................

POWER RATINGS I

This PR gives more weight to the passing game but does take into account balance.


1. Saber Cats 17.21
2. Soul           13.02
3. Rattlers      11.98
4. Sharks       9.28
5. Predators    6.84
6. Gladiators    (-4.26)
7. Thunder       (-5.9)
8. Shock         (-6.65)


My Lines..................

Cats -26.11 over Thunder
Soul - 18.73 over Gladiators
Rattlers - 19.43 over Shock
Predators -.56 over Sharks



POWER RATING II

This PR is based on more overall balance, but I did make a couple of small adjustments to the NFL version because the run game is used far less often in Arena Football.


1. Cats 17.64
2. Sharks 15.06
3. Rattlers 14.79
4. Predators 10.8
5. Soul 8.28
6. Gladiators  (-6.45)
7. Shock (-11.34)
8. Thunder (-15.54)


Wow, the Sharks rate very high here and no.4 in PR I  and just half a point from being 3rd.

The info strongly suggest the Sharks are the most undervalued team in the playoffs, their play on the field is far better then their record and point margin,  and they  could be the big surprise story in this years playoffs.


The Cats look to be easily the best team. No. 1 in both PR's and our favorites to win the Arena Bowl.




We'll see how it goes.............Best of Luck Guys and enjoy what should be a great playoffs of Arena Ball............................
 
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Posted: #2
I went back to 2010, the first year of the 18 game schedule. And took a look at how no. 1 and 2 seeds perform.

NO. 1 SEEDS...................

The 10 no. 1 seeds in their opening playoff game went 8-2 SU but won just 4 of the 10 games by 10 pts or more. Or 4 of 8 wins came by 10 pts or better.

A no. 1 seed VS a team .500 or worse went, 5-1 SU, with just 2 of the 5 wins  being 10 pts or better. Ave per win of 11 pts.

A no. 1 seed VS a team above .500 went 3-1 SU with 2 of the 3 wins being by 10 pts or better. Ave per win of 11 pts.


What the info seems to suggest is the top seeds may get complacent VS lesser talent and save their stronger games for the better teams.
 
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Posted: #3
NO. 2 SEEDS..........................

No. 2 seeds VS no. 3 seeds looks like this, 7-3 SU , 7 of the 10 games were won by 4 pts or less by no. 2 seeds. 2 of the 10 games won by 10 pts or better. Ave win 8.14, but one win was a blow-out 27 pt win,  Ave of the other 6 wins 5 pts.

No. 2 seed playing a 3 seed with a better record, 1-3 SU.

No. 2 seed playing a 3 seed with a worse record, 6-0 SU.

Seems there could be some strong value backing 3 seeds with a better record, although we don't have that situation this year.

Also seems to suggest the 2/3 seed matchup is pretty damn evenly matched over the years, making our Sharks look pretty good.

Sharks opened +6, I did take a 1 unit play, then went to +7 and I took another 1 unit play. Then this morning it was +5.5.

I'd wait it out and try and grab 7 if possible but get 6 if nothing else.
 
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Posted: #4
I have some other interesting finds, and what looks like a monster play next week, will have much more on that later.
 
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Posted: #5
The lines seem to be climbing for the other 3 favorites,  we have a play with a 6 pt difference to the closing line. Which at this time would be no plays, but I'll still take a small stab with the Sharks who have a great chance to win SU.

The Soul line has moved 3 pts up to -17 from -14.

Maybe a over-reaction to the Gladiators getting pounded in last seasons Arena Bowl, I don't know.

Interesting, I broke-down the Arena Bowl teams in 2011, 2012, 2014, could not get the stats to work for 2013.

Of the 6 teams, quess who was easily the worst ? Yep, the 2014 Gladiators who set the record with 17 wins.

The remaining 5 teams would all finish 2cd in this years playoffs according to PR 1. The 17 win Gladiators are almost in 4th.

Gladiators had the worst QB play of any of the 6 teams. And it seems QB play is even more important than in the NFL from some things I'm finding, but it's still a work in progress. 

Also, the 2015 Cats are easily the best team of the 6.

What makes the Cats so damn good ?

It's their incredible pass defense !!  
 
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Posted: #6
Let's have a look at the Cats great pass defense.................

Defensive Passer Rating....

4. Predators 115.16
3. Rattlers 93.97
2. Soul 91.44
1. Cats 76.37

Wow, heads and shoulders better than the other top seeds.

Ave per Pass Att including sacks...............

4.  Predators 6.94
3. Rattlers 6.04
2. Soul 5.77
1. Cats 5.28

Again much better than the other top seeds.

And the easily lead the league in fewest INT's thrown.


Of the 6 teams in the Arena Bowl the best defensive passer rating was 2011 Rattlers 88.17, none of the other 5 teams were below 92.


Only 1 of the other 6 teams had a ave per pass under 6, at 5.89, not close to the Cats 5.28.

And only 1 of the 6 teams comes even remotely close to throwing as few INT's as the 2015 Cats.
 
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Posted: #7
The Cats incredible pass defense was on display last night, easy under in the game and the Cats pick-up the cover winning by 27.

I did get a play in on the Cats to win Arena Bowl last night -140 to win 2 units and to win conference -195 to win 2 units.


It's still a work in progress but from what I see it appears I could give more weight to passing game (combo of off and def) and maybe QB play in some areas.  Either way it would just make the Cats bigger favorites then they already are, so I feel fairly confident Cats will win the title.

We could of made a case for Cats to be as high as a -31.2 favorite over Thunder, but still looking into things and being my first time would rather error on the side of being conservative.


We could make a case today for Rattlers to be as high as a -22.8 favorite and the Soul a -20.77 fav. In which case we'd have a 6 pt diff with Rattlers but not the Soul.

Interesting the books have the Soul being the bigger fav but seems the Rattlers should be the bigger fav.

We could make a case for Sharks to be a -1.5 fav to a +1.26 dog, just depends on how much weight we assign each each stat battle.


The only game we'll take some small action is Sharks , let's wait it out till next week, we'll have our biggest play of the playoffs coming .


 
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Posted: #8
Interesting that last season we did not have the huge favorites in Power Rating I as we do this season.

My Lines opening games in 2014.

17-1 Gladiators -8.65 over 9-9 Georgia
13-5 Cats -5.71 over 11-5 Spokane
15-3 Pitts -3.03 over 11-7 Orlando 
15-3 Zona -14.02 over Thunder 

Only Zona is a big fav but not close to the favories this season, 3 of the 4 being over -18.5.

Pitts was tied for 2cd best record but got the 3 seed because they played in the same division as 17-1 Gladiators. As a team with a top record they were very low rated at 7.88 which would only rank 5th in this years playoffs.

And they lost SU in their opening playoff game.

No. 1 seeded 14-4 San Antonio in 2012 was another top record to lose their opening playoff game. Their PR I was 5.12, easily the worst of the top seeds.

San Antonio would rank 6th in this years playoffs.

In the 3 seasons I could break-down the stats, 2011, 2012, 2014, (2013 did not work) , plus this season,  2012 San Antonio (5.12)  was easily the lowest rated team with the 17-1 Gladiators next at 9.9 in 2014.

This seems to indicate the top teams this season are much, much better and we could see at least 1 blowout today and maybe 2 with the top teams, Soul and Rattlers.

Seems to indicate either the Soul or Rattlers should cover with a good possibility to get both.

I wish I knew this before the Cats played last night, it would seem to indicate the 3 big favorites have a great oppurtunity to go at least 2-1 ATS with 3-0 a possibility.

I may take some small action on both Soul and Rattlers 1 or 2 units and a half unit or 1 unit on both in the 1st half.

All ready on the Sharks game and 1st half.


Good Luck guys and enjoy the games today...............................
 
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Posted: #9
Soul opened -14 then shot-up to -17 and now back to -14.

If we use the PRI with add weight we have Soul -20.77 and Rattlers -22.8 both line better than a 6 pt difference at this point.

Seems the added weight might prove to be the better PR I at this point anyway.
 
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Posted: #10
Soul rolled in the 1st half, 30-14.
 
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Posted: #11
Soul up 26 with little over 11 minutes to play.
 
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Posted: #12
Son of a gun, Gladiators get the onside kick and score back to back TD's, cut the lead to 12 then miss the onside kick and the Soul end the game inside the 5 yard line, blah, blah, blah........

Had the Soul -14.

Sharks up 14 - 0 in 1st quarter.
 
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Posted: #13
Sharks up 21-7 with 5:22 to go in 1st half. We should be able to get this 1st half. 

I have +2.5, Predators would need 3 scores to beat us.
 
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Posted: #14
Sharks rolling, 35-14 halftime lead. We get the 1st half.

 I did give strong consideration to take Sharks ML but did not, being my 1st time I like to be a bit more conservative.

I took a half unit play on Predators 2cd half -2.

I feel pretty good about the +6 and +7 I have on the game with Sharks, Predators would need to win 2cd half by 29 pts to lose both those.


 
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Posted: #15
Predators will likely make a nice run 2cd half, Sharks should hold on for the SU win by 7 to 14 pts or so.
 
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Wow, the Rattlers line jumped to -17.5 a huge move , this is why we need to watch the line, that big move now gives us only a 5.3 difference to  line, 

I did buy off a half unit on Spokane +17.5, maybe will get the middle.

Have Zona -13.5 . That's 2 key numbers 14 and 17 to catch a middle.
 
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Posted: #17
Wow, Sharks rolled the Predators.

I was hoping the Sharks did not win so big, would of been better for next week. And then with the Soul winning a closer game after a big lead does not set next week up as well as I would of like.

We'll see how the game opens. 
 
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Posted: #18
Well, the info looks fairly solid.  The 3 big favorites using the adjusted PR I with added weight for the passing game proved to be the better PR, at least for this week.

2 of the 3 teams won big and the Soul were winning big most of the game untill the onside kick and back to back TD's by the Gladiators, and they still had a chance to cover getting inside the 5 to end the game.

We're on to next week and coming with our biggest play of the playoffs.

And we'll have a strong parlay with week 1 in NFL and the WNBA.

More on that later, untill then..................
 
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Posted: #19
My Lines For Round 2................

I made a mistake with the Power Rating I posted in the 1st post. At the time I was playing around with adding additional weight and Posted the added weight version for Soul and Rattlers, that's why my lines not add up with those ratings.

Here's the NFL Version of the Power Rating I........

Cats 17.21
Soul   11.47
Rattlers 9.78
Sharks  9.28

My Lines.................

Cats -10.43 over Rattlers
Soul -5.19 over Sharks.


Here's the adjusted version for the Arena game...........

 it's still a work in progress, may make some other small adjustments as I find new info, but it will be close enough to make plays this week.


Cats    20.79
Soul    13.76
Rattlers   11.88
Sharks     11.31


Cats - 11.91
Soul - 5.45


Each teams adds roughly 2 pts to their rating except the Cats who add 3.5 pts or so.

The adjusted rating makes the Cats a bigger favorite  while the Soul stay about the same.
 
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Posted: #20
I saw the lines for the 1st time last sunday night, was Cats -14, Soul -6.5.

Monday morning was Cats -12.5, Soul -8.

I took to win 4.5 units on Cats and 1.5 units on Sharks.

Surprisingly the odds to win Arenabowl the Cats came down to -120 from -140 so I took another to win 2.5 units, but I see it's back to -140, must of just moved back today.

The lines I see now Cats -13, Soul -7.5.

The line on the Cats opened bigger then I suspected, I still think it's likely the cover the number.

Cats have lost the past 3 years to Zona in playoffs and 2 of the times Zona rated the better team according to Power Ratings. The other year I can not get the stats to work on the Arena site.

This season Cats have elavated their game to a very strong team, much better than Zona and we can be sure payback is in the minds of the Cats.

It's highly likely they bring their biggest game of the year and a blowout is very possible.

I will also take Cats 1st half to win 2  units.

I'd lean the under on both 1st half and game with the Cats great pass defense putting on a show.


 
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Posted: #21
From the conference final and the Arena bowl the power rating when at least a 4 point favorite is 6-0 SU, not sure about ATS since I can't find past lines.

It's only over 3 seasons a bit of small sample size but it's all we have to work with.

Teams 6 point favs or better are 5-0 SU.

Which seems to indicate the Cats are strong favs to win SU at least, possible upset could be Sharks over Soul with Soul being less than 6 pt fav.

Teams under 6 pt favs 2-2 SU.

It appears in the Arena game that the better passing offense and QB should recieve bonus points , we could give an additional 3.03 pts to the Cats. -14.94

Soul would receive only  .3, now becomes Soul -5.85, still under 6.
 
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Posted: #22
We also have a strong parlay with 2 games on opening day in the NFL and I thought the Lyxn to win the WNBA Title, but may back off the Lyxn , since the Fowles trade they don't seem to be playing as well, maybe it hurt the chemistry, they'll likely work it out but for now I'll pass on that play.

You can check with my WNBA thread if you want to make a play on the Lyxn as I've called 5 of the last 6 champs before the playoffs started.

The 2 opening day NFL Plays are Giants +6 and KC +1.5.

Both plays come from very high probability regression methods, Giants method has produced a 16-2 ATS record on opening day in past 10 years.

KC 9-0 ATS past 10 years.

I would back Cats -13 with Giants and KC
And Cats to win arenabowl with Giants and KC
And take Cats 1st half with Giants and KC in the 1st half, which to do this you need to take the Cats win and make a 2 team parlay when the 1st half lines come out.

I would keep the parlays small, 1 unit each.

Good luck guys and enjoy the great games coming up, Im looking forward to it myself..........................................


 
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Posted: #23
Line down to Cats -12 this morning , son of a gun, hopefully we don't get hurt by the line drop.

1st half Cats -7 for 2 units 
 
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Posted: #24
The lines drooping big time, Cats -10 now and -105 to win Arenabowl.

Added another to win 1.5 units to each and another half unit to Jax +9.

Love it when public is against the info........................will add more if line drops again..................
 
 
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Posted: #25
I kind of expected the public to back Zona getting all those points and being 3 time defending champs.

The public lovers backing defend champs, I love fading them in the right spots................. 
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