Aussie B'Ball Week #16

WNBL: 16-17

Well this season isn't going to plan like I thought it would for myself but plenty of games to turn this around.. Not so great game tonight. Adelaide vs Sydney. Adelaide a big 108-103 win vs the Crocs in Townsville last weekend. Massive scoreline. I would no way take an under in any Adelaide games because if you watched last weekend, you would know they use no more than 10-12 seconds on the shot clock. It was just insane. Kings on the other hand were pathetic vs the Wildcats. 1H looked good, 2H, fell apart like a 5 day old donut. Really bad + they allowed a lot of points. Three meetings already this season,

12.11.15 - Kings won 106-84 in Sydney

07.11.15 - 36ers won 99-98 in Adelaide

23.10.15 - 36ers won 91-80 in Sydney

So we have had totals hit 190, 197 and 171.

1H totals have hit 95, 109 & 87 so these 2 teams do like to score points. Leaning the Kings 1H and potentially their 1H TT as the 36ers do seem to allow some points in the 1H. 

BOL this weekend forum 

Going for the over because 1. The Kings don't defend. 2. The 36ers don't defend and can only win with their offense. 3. Childress has come back and the Kings have put up totals of of 83, 90, 87, 90 and 68. That 68 last weekend was atrocious and think they put up a decent effort tonight on offense because last weekend was against a Perth team that is known for D (keep opponents to 75,5 @ home) where the 36ers have allowed 81.4 points per game at home. This might be a little easier to breath for the Kings in this game remembering last time they played in Adelaide they hit 98 and hit a massive 64 in the 1H of that game and blew a massive lead heading into the 4Q up by 20 points.

NZ Breakers @ Townsville Crocs: NZ Breakers -1.5 1Q

Why, because NZ need to do absolutely everything right tomorrow night to stay in the hunt for the top 4. Crocs have played 22 games so far this season, here is the list of their 1Q's so far this season:

vs Melbourne lost by 9

@ NZ lost by 12

@ Kings lost by 10

@ Taipans won by 2

@ Melbourne lost by 12

@ Perth lost by 17

vs Hawks lost by 13

@ Kings lost by 14

vs Perth lost by 10

@ Adelaide lost by 3

@ Melbourne won by 6

vs Melbourne on by 1

@ Hawks lost by 20

vs Taipans won by 22

vs Breakers lost by 13

vs 36ers lost by 1

@ 36ers won by 7

vs Perth lost by 7

vs Hawks lost by 18

@ Taipans lost by 9

vs 36ers won by 7

As you can see, 1Q's are the Crocs speciality and seeing that they actually won the 1Q vs the 36ers last weekend, I think they come out sluggish vs a very determined NZ team needing a win badly. 

Close but a few seconds to spare. 

A particularly big last quarter for the cover 

Travel is the major concern for the Hawks. Across the Tasman last weekend for the NZ game which went to OT and the Hawks pulled the win out. That was only 4 days ago. The hardest travel in the NBL is going from NZ across to Perth (around 9 hours flight) and Im not sure the Hawks would have gone back home for 1-2 days. I'm guessing no. Perth rested, off a massive win vs the Kings last weekend. Before the NZ game, Hawks had also been bouncing around a lot. They haven't played 2 consecutive home games in over 5 weeks. This is their schedule in the last 5 weeks.

After playing Cairns at home on 09.12.15, they went up to Cairns and lost in OT. Then they went back home to beat the Kings. After, that game, then started a 4 game road trip which started in NZ, then up to Townsville, then down to Melbourne and then back up to Sydney. After that they went home to beat NZ. Then they went across the Tasman to play NZ last weekend and now across to Perth. Thats just brutal. Don't like going against the Hawks but I think they are in a letdown spot tonight against a Perth team that will want to show the NBL world that they are still to be consider a major threat in this league. They have also won the last 7 at home and have only dropped 1 game at home this season. The Hawks are on fire but as mentioned above, think the travel catches up with them tonight..

BOL forum  

Speechless Kriscar.. Such an important game against such a low opponent and they blew it 1Q and then game. Unbelievable. The only thing keeping them in play-off race is that Adelaide have a brutal schedule coming up against the best teams in the league.

Well done to us mate. Such a dominant defensive performance from the Cats tonight. First place is gonna be huge this season. I don't remember a season where home court will count for so much especially for Perth. Hard to see anyone beating them in the cage.

But how about those Breakers. At least Crocs will gain some respect now and I can continue to fade them particularly away from home as I still dont rate them but that Samram does good things

Kriscar - initially lean the Over tonight with Adelaide vs 36ers. Adelaide don't defend, rely on offense and if thats their game plan, I think Melbourne will kindly accept and with Holt and Goulding firing away for Melbourne, think this game can possibly tick over 200 points. No total for me yet with my book,. but guessing its going to be extremely high like 185 or something.. Lean Melbourne as well ATS. Adelaide looked very vulnerable the other night vs the Kings and now face Melbourne who have put together a nice little win streak lately. 

Total looks low but game almost moved from PK to -2.5 36ers

Total looks very low Peekay but dont let that distract you mate. These teams as you know don't play D well at all. Expect the usual from Randle and Co and Holt and Goulding. 

Tough one for me to take but I think its the right side tonight. When I look at the 36ers results, they haven't been amazing. Yes they have won the last 5 games and one of those games was against Melbourne in Adelaide back on 23.12.15 but after that they had had some poor wins so to speak. Beating the Kings last Wednesday night took them until the 4Q to really get ahead. Against the Crocs they were lacklustre and once again took a long time in that game to get away with the win and the game before that was a good away win vs the NZ Breakers but we have all seen them fall apart lately. Melbourne on the other hand have handed the Cairns Taipans 2 beltings, the road game in Cairns was more impressive then their win last weekend at home because we know Cairns is a tough place to get a win. They also beat the most inform team 3 weeks ago (Hawks) in Melbourne by 1 and also beat the Wildcats at home as well by 5. Yes this game is on the road in Adelaide but Melbourne need this win big time (and so do Adelaide) to get their road form improved. Home court is massive in this league but seeing that Adelaide are playing their 2 game in 3 nights and Melbourne well rested, I think Melbourne will have the goods in this game to get a win but will take the points just in case..

Total seems to low for my liking. Adelaide road games have been massive on some occasions. Their totals have hit 161, 178, 149, 163, 178, 145 and 166. All their road games have gone over this total. Last meeting saw a nice 79-63 win for Dandy in Adelaide 2 weeks ago but I think tonight we see a more open game from both teams with Dandy making some pretty easy baskets. Dandy at home do have solid D as they have only allowed 66 (Adelaide TT) points or less 4 times from 9 starts so not bad at all but I think this total clocks over.. 

Melbourne looking good into the 4th Q and then blow it and score 9 points. Then in the WNBL, only need 30 odd points and then those teams stop scoring all together and the under comes in just. Crazy how things can swing in b'ball. Anyways, got 2 games tonight. 

Perth should be too strong for the Taipans who are pathetic on the road and even more pathetic on the road after a home win. in the WNBL we Dandy @ Melbourne which should be a slow grind of a game IMHO. Will check these games out a little later.

Gotta think the Rangers get up for this game as they are in prime position to pounce on the top 4. Penaluna missing is massive for the Boomers as well as Magden in doubt. Rangers embarrassed last game when they lost S/U to the Lightning the other night but don't forget they were -11 fav's in that game so the books do have some love for this Rangers side. Rangers have already beaten Melbourne twice this season by 6 and 6 and both games were in Dandenong's home court but they MUST win this game if they have any hope of the post-season. Its funny, Dandy cant handle the Lightning (losing to them twice now) and the Fire (lost to them twice as well) so im hoping they can stick to a similar game plan they had when they beat the Boomers twice already this season.