Posted:
#1
2012 YTD: +5.19units (11-5 68.75%)
EARLY LEANS:
Pies -6.5
Freo h2h
GWS +66.5
Cats -22.5
WCE -20.5
PLAYING:
PIES -6.5 1.5units@ $1.92
--- A little bit filthy at myself here because the line seemed to shorten (to -2.5) within minutes of me placing my bet, but i will taking the Pies to cover 6.5 points in the Anzac game. The reason i jumped on this is due to the very bruising encounter the Bombers had on Saturday against the Blues. It was announced yesterday (Sunday) that the Bombers could be without 6 of the players who took the field last w/e for this game. I know the Pies are still missing Daisy, Shaw and Reid but they played without all of these guys against Port. I personally don't think Port are nearly as bad this year as they were last year so the fact Collingwood only won by 4 goals doesn't worry me. One of the reasons is because the Bombers only beat Port by 25points (@ home) in rd2 and that was with all of their players fit. Hurley is surely a goner for this game and if they do put him out there i can't imagine he will have much of an impact at all due to the injury being his hammy. Break off speed is crucial for a forward and Hurley will have minimal nullifying his production. I also think the Pies are starting to come around to Buckleys new style and i don't think they are as bad as everyone is claiming. They are still a threat and this is a game they will all really wanna get up for! I see them getting the win here in a very close seesawing affair. Pies by 8 points.
DOCKERS h2h 1.5units@ $2.00
--- Looking over the fixtures i actually have Dockers and WCE winning all of their 11 home games this season. So getting the Dockers as dogs in this game amazes me. Why on earth are Carlton favourites? They are playing away at one of the hardest grounds to play at (as an away side) and they have just been exposed to fullest extent last week against the Bombers (who they were actually 40pt favs over). Carlton had some of the easiest scheduling in the first few rounds in regards to the amount of rest they had. When they played the Pies they got very lucky with all the players that were dropping like flys (Reid subbed early, Ball ACL injury and Daisy playing injured). All these injuries happened early too. Another thing the Pies fucked hard was nobody was tagging Judd! they let him run free. NO team can afford that and the Pies paid dearly. Bombers proved last week that if you tag Judd and Murphy then the wheels fall off at Carlton and dont expect the Dockers to do any different. Another key factor is Carrazzo is out for 6-8 weeks. He is by far the best tagger the Blues have and it showed last week against the Bombers when he went down early and they had no one to control Watson or Stanton. I can't see the Blues being able to replace him, especially at Subi. The Dockers also proved last Friday they have more to offer then everybody thought. They were 3goal underdogs and proved that line stupid. They have one of the most dominant ruckmen in the game and this will be a key factor. Also star midfielder Mundy now has 2 games under his belt and Ballantyne proved his worth to this line up also. Dockers to win this by 4goals+
GL
EARLY LEANS:
Pies -6.5
Freo h2h
GWS +66.5
Cats -22.5
WCE -20.5
PLAYING:
PIES -6.5 1.5units@ $1.92
--- A little bit filthy at myself here because the line seemed to shorten (to -2.5) within minutes of me placing my bet, but i will taking the Pies to cover 6.5 points in the Anzac game. The reason i jumped on this is due to the very bruising encounter the Bombers had on Saturday against the Blues. It was announced yesterday (Sunday) that the Bombers could be without 6 of the players who took the field last w/e for this game. I know the Pies are still missing Daisy, Shaw and Reid but they played without all of these guys against Port. I personally don't think Port are nearly as bad this year as they were last year so the fact Collingwood only won by 4 goals doesn't worry me. One of the reasons is because the Bombers only beat Port by 25points (@ home) in rd2 and that was with all of their players fit. Hurley is surely a goner for this game and if they do put him out there i can't imagine he will have much of an impact at all due to the injury being his hammy. Break off speed is crucial for a forward and Hurley will have minimal nullifying his production. I also think the Pies are starting to come around to Buckleys new style and i don't think they are as bad as everyone is claiming. They are still a threat and this is a game they will all really wanna get up for! I see them getting the win here in a very close seesawing affair. Pies by 8 points.
DOCKERS h2h 1.5units@ $2.00
--- Looking over the fixtures i actually have Dockers and WCE winning all of their 11 home games this season. So getting the Dockers as dogs in this game amazes me. Why on earth are Carlton favourites? They are playing away at one of the hardest grounds to play at (as an away side) and they have just been exposed to fullest extent last week against the Bombers (who they were actually 40pt favs over). Carlton had some of the easiest scheduling in the first few rounds in regards to the amount of rest they had. When they played the Pies they got very lucky with all the players that were dropping like flys (Reid subbed early, Ball ACL injury and Daisy playing injured). All these injuries happened early too. Another thing the Pies fucked hard was nobody was tagging Judd! they let him run free. NO team can afford that and the Pies paid dearly. Bombers proved last week that if you tag Judd and Murphy then the wheels fall off at Carlton and dont expect the Dockers to do any different. Another key factor is Carrazzo is out for 6-8 weeks. He is by far the best tagger the Blues have and it showed last week against the Bombers when he went down early and they had no one to control Watson or Stanton. I can't see the Blues being able to replace him, especially at Subi. The Dockers also proved last Friday they have more to offer then everybody thought. They were 3goal underdogs and proved that line stupid. They have one of the most dominant ruckmen in the game and this will be a key factor. Also star midfielder Mundy now has 2 games under his belt and Ballantyne proved his worth to this line up also. Dockers to win this by 4goals+
GL
. Im very lucky they won though. They were the final leg of an NBA/AFL multi for the day. Cant say I will be trusting them again this season until they prove they have a little more balls under Buckley. Definitely hurts them that they dont have Daisy out there. He is a massive gun!
that's punting 
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