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June Cycling: Dauphine Libere, Tour of Switzerland and Nationals

Participants:

Posts: 86

n1ck

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 289

Posted: Jun. 21, 2009 - 7:10 AM ET #76

5 min before the start.

I've been thinking about it for the last 50 min, couldn't figure out why Cancellara wouldn't have the determination to win this last stage and win in Berne. He knows the course perfectly and he has shown all his power in the last week.

Placing what I had in mind yesterday :

10 on Cancellara @ 1.342

7 on Hincapie over Chavanel @ 1.42

2.8 on Kreuziger over Kloden @ 3.07

Hope to win 12.1 units

About 6 km where added to this year's TT. Cancellara won it by 20 seconds over Kloden in 2007. He had taken the Prologue by 8 seconds that same year.

Karpets and Dekker had shown pretty good results finishing in the top 10.

I hope to be right.

elithepunk

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 3552

Posted: Jun. 21, 2009 - 8:22 AM ET #77

Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

You have to be crazy to bet against Cancellara tonight.

At first, I thought this was what you meant but then I read the matchups and there seems to be a minor contradiction to say the least. I have to agree with the bets overall. No way I would lay that much juice on a single rider to win it all but we'll see soon enough if it pays off for you Nick.

n1ck

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 289

Posted: Jun. 21, 2009 - 11:02 AM ET #78

Hard to understand what's going on. There's basically no time out.

Cancellara had a 30 sec advantage at the first checkpoint.

Valjavec is out of business 50 sec back at the 10 km gate.

So far, Chavanel has the 2nd best time 5 sec behind Burghardt.

Kreuziger was 5 seconds behind Martin who was second at the 1st gate.

Dekker is on fire...

More to come in the next 30 min.

n1ck

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 289

Posted: Jun. 21, 2009 - 11:18 AM ET #79

One checkpoint to go, 1'08'' ahead for Cancellara. Kreuziger is in 6th place probably in front of Kloden but I'm not quite sure.

Dekker

Burghardt

Chavanel

Martin

Kreuziger

Karpets

There's an unknown rider between 2nd and 4th place.

n1ck

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 289

Posted: Jun. 21, 2009 - 4:30 PM ET #80

10 on Cancellara @ 1.342

7 on Hincapie over Chavanel @ 1.42

2.8 on Kreuziger over Kloden @ 3.073

Cancellara destroyed the field as expected. 1'27'' in front of Martin, what a week for him. Hincapie took it way too easy finishing 1'10'' behind Chavenel. Kreuziger gave all he could and finished 9 seconds in front of Kloden.

I ended up with +2.2 units

Overall for Swizertland : 6-4 +8.3 units

Overall Dauphine: 8-1 +16.75 units

Both : 14-5 +25 units

We're now heading for France on July 4th

elithepunk

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 3552

Posted: Jun. 21, 2009 - 6:03 PM ET #81

Quote Originally Posted by n1ck:

Cancellara destroyed the field as expected. 1'27'' in front of Martin, what a week for him.

Unreal. This guy is just simply too strong. Quite an entertaining ride so far with these pre-France races. Take it easy until the big one comes July. Cheers

delasoul_iam

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 1098

Posted: Jun. 26, 2009 - 7:21 AM ET #82

Have a question for you guys. How do you see Oscar Freire chances for the green yersey again, or at least having more points than Cavendish at the end of the Tour? I know Cavendish is the man on plain stages finishing with a sprint, but three of heavy mountain stages are coming early on (stage 7,8 and 9) so could he maybe retire from Tour at one of these stages to prepare for 2009 Track Cycling World Championships in Sidney? After those stages there is a day of rest and 4 more plain stages before the killer last week starts with four mountain stages. Think Cavendish will give up before stage 15 at best, but the problem is there are only 2 plain stages after stage 15 for Freire to collect big points. What do you think? Thanks

elithepunk

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 3552

Posted: Jun. 26, 2009 - 8:56 AM ET #83

Quote Originally Posted by delasoul_iam:

I know Cavendish is the man on plain stages finishing with a sprint, but three of heavy mountain stages are coming early on (stage 7,8 and 9) so could he maybe retire from Tour at one of these stages to prepare for 2009 Track Cycling World Championships in Sidney?

Nick was telling me the same thing. This proposition has to be taken under consideration through a very critical and strategic perspective IMHO. Another angle is the head to head matchup between Freire and Cavendish ( with respect to overall points ). Not enough experience or knowledge to help you out with the particular question of when exactly Cavendish will drop out but I'm looking forward to hearing what both these cyclist "connaisseurs" have to say about it.

This is a very interesting aspect of the race

n1ck

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 289

Posted: Jun. 26, 2009 - 6:57 PM ET #84

I was writting a nice write-up when my computer closed for no reason, so I won't spend as much time writting it, I'll come to the point.

Fuck Cavendish, there's no way I will take it overall and my personal odds for him to withdraw are @ 1.50 so you better take all matchups where you see him.

With Pinnacle, go Freire and Hushovd over Cavendish with max bet @ 162 $, you will win 725 $. Please don't try to play Freire @ 3.5 for the overall, H2H is the key.

Cavendish and Columbia are in France for stage wins, they don't even bother about jerseys. Freire and Hushovd are stronger cyclist then Cavendish.

n1ck

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 289

Posted: Jun. 26, 2009 - 7:16 PM ET #85

My leans so far :

Teams :

Saxo Bank over Astana @ 4.85 It's a crazy play but I love the team and if Astana has any trouble Shleck will do the job.

Saxo Bank over Rabobank @ 1.80, where to take the money for the risky bet.

Not Astana @ 3.02, you never know.

Mountain :

I like Voeckler here, he's always ready to attack :

Voeckler over Di Gregorio @ 1.746

I have a strange feeling on heavy favorite. I would try Contador over Moncoutie @ 2.48

Yellow Jersey :

I still believe Armstrong is the leader for Astana in France...better take him now @ 3.79 over Contador and 2.19 over Evans

Not too sure about Contador to take it all, too much pressure and from what I've seen in Swizertland, he's in the same elite categorie as the other climber. Andy over Contador @ 4.07

Forget about "I don't know how to attack" Menchov over Evans @ 2.30

"I was a kid before but my team is there this year" Andy over Sastre @ 1.80

"I'm the best overall man for Columbia" Kirchen over Rogers @ 1.699

"I won't crash 2 years in row and you might not know but I've won the Tour " Pereiro over L-L Sanchez @ 2.71

"I'm the leader versus I help my leader" Efimkin over Astarloza @ 1.813

Points :

No way Cavendish can do something good, he's not interested

Freire @ 2.68 and Hushovd @ 3.79

Stage 1 : Take Leipheimer @ 17 for the win...a feeling.

Bolar

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 5831

Posted: Jun. 27, 2009 - 9:55 PM ET #86

With the Tour, there will be a huge write-up coming. BUT!

Nick, do not take Armstrong over Contador. I will have the full reasoning soon. But here's a brief outline.

The Hog said Contador won't lose. I agree with him. Remember the Dauphine? Contador was helping Valverde? Same thing will happen in the Tour.

IF there is an inhouse rivalry in Astana, Caisse D'Epargne without a leader will be bringing Contador up the mountains. Contador have Caisse there as backup. LLS will be dragging Contador up the climbs if no one on Astana supports him.

There may be some riders that will support Contador on Astana, some that won't. He has Caisse as his second team. They owe him. That's why Contador helped Valverde win the Dauphine.

Naturally Contador was hoping Valverde would ride the tour so Valverde can drag Contador up the climbs.

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June Cycling: Dauphine Libere, Tour of Switzerland and Nationals

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