Cycling: 2010 Paris-Nice & Tirreno Adriatico (next week)

Verdugo just tried to make a breakaway. Gave intentions that they are riding for Sanchez meaning Sicard is going to be a trump.

I was wrong on my info before. It's Samuel Sanchez that is their leader but they do have someone in the break to help later on.

Easy for Contador. Too easy.

Got the Sanchez over Sagan bet

We await confirmation of the Sicard bet.

Boonen won Tirreno

Rojas beat Hushovd. Hopefully Farrar got the better of Hutarovich

Got the Sicard bet.

We await Farrar over Hutarovich

6 units Sanchez over Sagan @ $1.90

Sanchez is going for the win. Sagan has had his time in the sun and is going to help out Kreuziger. Sagan shouldn't be there when Sanchez crosses the line. He should be back.

5 units Contador to win @ $2.40 - Cant' see him getting beaten. Can you?
2 units Schleck top 3 @ $6 - Schleck hasn't shown himself yet. Today is the day he will.
3 units Rodriguez over Valverde @ $1.77- Rodriguez should be too strong here.
2 units Machado over Cunego @ $2.25 - Cunego doesn't care about this stuff anymore.

3 units Sicard over whatshisname @ $2.15 -

Bounce back day.

Thor Hushovd over Jose Rojas Gil @ $2.25  
Luis Leon Sanchez over Peter Sagan @ $1.90  
Romain Sicard over Gorka Verdugo @ $2.10  
Tiago Machado over Damiano Cunego @ $2.25  


Even... Better than a loss...

We got Farrar over Hutarovich

Paris-Nice - Stages

Prologue: +1.25
Stage 1: -9.9 units
Stage 2: -3.1 units
Stage 3: -0.2 units
Stage 4: +8.85 units
Stage 5:
Stage 6:
Stage 7:
Classification:
Overall:


Tirreno-Adriatico Stages:

Stage 1: -12 units
Stage 2: +0.9 units
Stage 3:
Stage 4:
Stage 5:
Stage 6:
Stage 7:
Classification:
Overall:
YTD

Tirreno-Adriatico - Stage 3

4 units Farrar over Pozzato @ $1.87

In PN tonight I'm going to whack $5 on about 4 or 5 guys well down in the GC. The conditions should be miserable again tonight and a break will survive so I'm going to test my luck with 2 skil shimano riders and a couple other French guys

Tirreno-Adriatico

.5 unit Hushovd @ $23
.5 unit Farrar @ $21

Time these two get things right. The climbing tonight isn't as bad as the stage yesterday and it was a bunch sprint. I expect another bunch sprint tonight and these guys are way over the odds.

Over on BWIN

8 units Any other rider to win @ $1.55

The quoted riders are:

Valverde, Sagan, Sanchez, Gilbert, Chavanel, Lorenzetto, Rodriguez, Ivanov, Kolobnev, Roche, Voeckler, Gerrans.

If any of those riders win, the bet loses.

I can always hedge in-play if need be. But I can't see this bet losing.

.2 unit Fuglsang @ $126
.2 units Veelers @ $51
.1 unit Rolland @ $51
.1 unit Galland @ $51
.1 unit R Feillu @ $67
.1 unit Huguet @ $81
.1 unit Vande Velde @ $41
.1 unit Popovych @ $51

Fuck... missed the Tirreno-Adriatico start... Was gonna have something small on Thor... Oh well Good Luck Bolar...

Farrar was fourth. He was a bit too far back when Liquigas had the train going and Bennati won the stage. If he was closer, he could have snagged it.

+2.48 for the stage in TA

Just before I put .5 unit on Gilbert @ $15 - just as a hedge.

Fuck me blind Sagan is a sensation.

anyone have a chance of beating Contador?

Yes

He has a 24 odd second lead. He doesn't have a strong team. If he gets isolated, he could very well be dropped. Will it happen, probably not.

It all depends what Caisse do. Contador said he doesn't want his team to work tonight so Caisse and the others need to bring it up to him. If they can isolate him, he may struggle. The good thing is they have Valverde and Sanchez and can use either one of them as the sacrificial lamb.

If Contador loses, it's to Valverde or Sanchez.

“You have to be super attentive and there has been a moment”, said Contador, “that I had to answer to an attack because they where Joaquin Rodriguez, Kreuziger and Luis Leon. That\'s what this race is that there are many riders in a few seconds and is very difficult to control. Although I wear the yellow jersey now, I will not take the whole responsibility because neither my team nor I can”.

Contador said his team “has done what it could. The stage seemed for the sprinters, but nothing at all, has been a very hard stage and almost impossible to control, because in the kilometer 100 had not yet made the break”.

Alberto said he is “feeling good, but in this race you need a very, very strong team to keep it under control, it is a race that is easier to win at counter-attack than being defensive. Tomorrow will be very difficult and I will not take more responsibility than me and my team can take”.

---------

Anyone who has money on Contador should be a little nervous. He shouldn't lose from here, but he was in a similar position last year and broke down due to hydration issues.

Tirreno-Adriatico - Stage 4

1 unit Lokvist top 3 @ $4

3 units Lovkvist over Rogers @ $1.77
6 units Gerdemann over Hesjedal @ $1.87

Paris-Nice - Stage 6

5 units Valverde over Sagan @ $1.50
3 units Le Mevel over Taaramae @ $1.55
2 units Gerrans over Roche @ $2.10
4 units Tondo over Machado @ $1.55

.1 unit Fuglsang @ $201
.1 unit Martinez @ $126
.1 unit Rolland @ $81
.1 unit Vande Velde @ $81
.2 units Popovych @ $51
.4 unit Cunego @ $21

Good luck!

Contador doesn't want to work today and if a group gets away early, then they could win the stage.

Popovych could try a break. Vande Velde said he wants to win a stage, so he could try a break. Cunego is down on the GC and will be allowed to run free. Depending what his motivation is. Rolland is one of France's big cyclists, so he might do something for BBOX. Martinez is just a small value bet and Fuglsang is over the odds by $100 so it's just a small play on him.

Naturally, I don't expect these to get up. But, I did get a few of those last year, best being a .2 unit play on Voeckler @ $101 in the TDF. I'll never forget that day.

.2 unit De Koet @ $101 - The guy twittered that he's going for the break today and hopes the guys let the break go.

Word around is they might let a break go, hence these longish plays.