Cycling: 2010 Paris-Nice & Tirreno Adriatico (next week)

Okay, been a crap start to the year. Last weekend was bad, but time to kick on. The real racing begins now.

The way I see it this is a race between Valverde and Sanchez. Don't know who they will ride for yet. Chances are it will come down to the time trial on Sunday.

There are some mountain stages, but even though the climbs are big, the last climb comes 30-40km from the finish. So you won't be able to solo it.

There is one stage, a 10.7% 3km climb at the end - stage 5. This could decide the race. That is more suited to Valverde and Sanchez than Contador.

Joaquim Rodriguez is also a chance, though he needs the climb higher and I wouldn't rule out Kreuizger, F Schleck or T Martin. Kreuziger and Martin can time trial and they can climb.

Sanchez was runner up to Algarve last month but in the TT, he beat Contador. Valverde won Meditteranean, which was a tough race.

So what do I think?

I think this current bet on Unibet is a steal.

Over 3.5 Spanish Riders to finish top 10 @ $2

This is going to be a 4 unit play.

Alberto Contador (should podium)
Alejandro Valverde (should podium or win)
Luis Leon Sanchez (should podium or win)
Samuel Sanchez (should come top 10)
Joaquim Rodriguez (should come top 10)

Don't rule out the possiblity of Tondo too.

There are 5 big spanish names right there. It wouldn't surprise me if the podium is filled with Spanish riders.

The first three by rights will finish top 10. We just need to hope for Sanchez or Rodriguez to bring home the bacon. Sanchez is in good form too. He came third or fourth in Algarve.

Onto the overall win.

3 units Valverde @ $6.50
3 units Sanchez @ $8
.5 units Kreuziger @ $19
.5 units Martin @ $41

Good luck!

I've been watching the cycling for a couple of years now... Love it... do you ride Bolar?...

Might tail you on some of these...

Martin to podium @ $7.50 looks good to me...

I ride casually and I'm a cycling reporter/journalist. WBU?

Yeah, Martin to podium looks alright. I mean, with the way the route is intended this year, if he can get say, 10-20 seconds over the rest of the climbers in the prologue, your podium bet is looking alright.

A) he'll be able to maintain it in the mountains with them considering they don't go near the end.

B) he should be able to go with any attacks on that 3km 10.7% climb.

1st and second will be decided by 5-10 seconds and third place won't be that far behind. So it's going to be a close top 3-5. I can understand why Contador is 1.80 favourite. I mean, if it were a huge mountaintop finish, I would jump on him at that price. But the route tells me otherwise and there is value around considering the top 3-5 will be separated by within half a minute.

I do however wish I knew what Caisse's plans were so I could hammer either Sanchez or Valverde for a place as one of them will come top 3. both could come top 3, but i reckon one will be top 3 and the other will be 4/5.I would probably lean Sanchez as defending it means more to him. $2.40 for a place for Sanchez is very fine odds.

Sanchez's goals are Paris-Nice, classic, Veulta podium () and TdF stage wins

Valverde is looking at paris roubaix, TdF and defending Veulta

Final Overall Bets:

Winner:

3 units Valverde @ $6.50
3 units Sanchez @ $9
.5 units Kreuziger @ $19
.5 units Martin @ $41

Podium:

5 units Sanchez top 3 @ $2.40

H2H

3 units Sanchez over Kreuziger @ $1.70
2 units Gerrans over Hoogerland @ $1.80
3 units Machado over Horner @ $1.66

Stage 1:

2 units Roulston over Flens @ $1.70
4 units Monfort over Peraud @ $1.71

.2 unit Martin @ $12
.2 unit Miller @ $12

Good luck!

Machado is in solid form at the moment.

In regards to the Stage 1 TT. I have no confidence in the winner, but for a value interest play, I chose two riders who would be excellent at 8km.

In regards to the matchup - Roulston has track background and is in form at the moment. Flens, even though he can time trial, is out of Roulston's league.

Monfort is a solid prologue rider and I don't rate Peraud, even if he won a French TT.

Is there anything new happening with Monfort?? I see you got him at 1.78 while be365 is offering 2.00 at him right now... Any reasons??

Also as you mentioned that Machado is in solide form --- what you think about Machado over Brajkovicon the first stage @-120??

I don't know what is happening with Monfort. He's okay against the clock time trialing. The guy he is up against is the french national time trial champion.

And I wouldn't take Machado over Brajkovic in the time trial. I don't know Machado's skills against the clock and off memory Brajkovic is alright.

Take Machado overall if you can find on overall. Sportingbet, Unibet etc will have more head to heads up.

Overall matchups on Bet365 worth checking out.

Machado over Horner
Gerrans over Hoogerland
Tondo over Casar - just saw that one then.

Stage 1 - I really don't like what is on offer at bet365 other than what I said. The others are too close to call.

Adding overall

2 units Tondo over Casar @ $2.25

My other overall bet is Over 3.5 Spanish riders in the GC @ $2 - 3 unit play in the end.

4 units Martin over Rosseler @ $1.75 - stage 1

Final Stage 1 Bets:

5 units Thomas over Cummings @ $1.71 - he has said he is targeting this prologue. Good enough for me.

2 units Boom over Gutierrez @ $1.71

Further 3.5 units on Thomas @ $1.71 over Cummings.

.2 units on Thomas to win the stage @ $51

Final Overall Bets:

Winner:

3 units Valverde @ $6.50
3 units Sanchez @ $9
.5 units Kreuziger @ $19
.5 units Martin @ $41

Podium:

5 units Sanchez top 3 @ $2.40

H2H

3 units Sanchez over Kreuziger @ $1.70
2 units Gerrans over Hoogerland @ $1.80
3 units Machado over Horner @ $1.66
2 units Tondo over Casar @ $2.20

3 units over 3.5 Spaniards in top 10 @ $2

As mentioned before:

This could be Valverde's last race for a long time.
Sanchez wants to defend.
Contador will be hard to beat, but there are value in these guys.

Head to heads

Tondo might be too strong for Casar. Machado will be too strong for Horner.
Sanchez should do enough to get over Kreuziger and Gerrans is an outsider for top 10 whereas Hoogerland probably isn't so to speak. Gerrans is Sky's leader.

Stage 1: Final Plays:

2 units Roulston over Flens @ $1.70
4 units Monfort over Peraud @ $1.71
4 units Martin over Rosseler @ $1.75
8.5 units Thomas over Cummings @ $1.71
2 units Boom over Gutierrez @ $1.71

.2 unit Martin @ $12
.2 unit Miller @ $12
.2 unit Thomas @ $51

Good luck!

Chavanel over Larsson is also a good play but as I have so much on already, I'm not taking it.

Fuck it

3 units Chavanel over Larsson @ $1.72

Dream start

Thomas beat Cummings by 21 seconds.

Boom easily beats Gutierrez.

So far so good.

So Boom was 27 seconds ahead of Gutierrez and Thomas was 21 seconds ahead of Cummings. Big time gaps over 8km in a head to head.

2 units Roulston over Flens @ $1.70
4 units Monfort over Peraud @ $1.71
4 units Martin over Rosseler @ $1.75
8.5 units Thomas over Cummings @ $1.71
2 units Boom over Gutierrez @ $1.71
3 units Chavanel over Larsson

.2 unit Martin @ $12
.2 unit Miller @ $12
.2 unit Thomas @ $51

Day 1: +1.25

Stage 1:

3 units Haussler over Chicchi @ $1.85
4 units Haedo over Fernandez @ $1.65
3 units Haussler over Roelandts x Greipel over Henderson @ $2.05
3.5 units Haussler to place @ $2

Good luck!