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Cycling: 2009 Tour Down Under

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Posts: 34
 
Captain
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Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 5831
Posted: #26
If Armstrong is in the betting groups tomorrow, take him against whoever he is matched with. He will attack tomorrow. If he is matched with Voigt - take it.
 
Also, take whoever Rogers is matched with. Rogers is desperate to win this. He showed desperation yesterday and on today's stage tried to attack near the end and upstage the sprinters. He will attack tomorrow on Old Willunga hill and finish in a group consisting of Sanchez, Perero, Armstrong, Lowe and maybe one or two others. They will drop off the sprinters and possibly O'Grady and if that's the case, Rogers takes the TDU.
 
My bet Rogers top 3 is looking very good right about now.
 
Veteran
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Joined: Apr, 2007
Posts: 3552
Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

If Armstrong is in the betting groups tomorrow, take him against whoever he is matched with. He will attack tomorrow. If he is matched with Voigt - take it.
 
Also, take whoever Rogers is matched with. Rogers is desperate to win this.


Oh man, this matchup looks interesting :

 Luis Leon Sanchez     1.645
 Michael Rogers     2.450

OR

Oscar Pereiro     1.952
Lance Armstrong     1.952

Are you familiar at all with those "hills" the guys are gonna have to ride up on ? I guess this is it right, time to win or lose it before the completely straight final stage on Sunday.
 
Prospect
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Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 289
Posted: #28
Lets say a bad yesterday, losing twice by 1 position, setting the top 4 in my matchup, getting 2nd et 4th instand of 1st and 3rd.
 
O'grady @ -158 vs Rojas
Brown @ +135 vs Davis 
Cherel @ +126 vs Roche
 
Showing an overall 1.89 units up.
 
___

Brown and Davis are good sprinters. Brown hasn't finished in front of Davis yet, but with this value, he is a perfect pick
Brown @ +333 vs Davis
 
I'm backing O'grady once again...
O'grady @ -124 vs Rojas
 
Rogers will be in the first group crossing the line, a few positions in front of Sanchez
Rogers @+145 vs Sanchez
 
Pereiro had bit crash last year in France but he seems in good shape.  He has a good team with him, a good reason to finish in front of Lance.
Pereiro @ -105 vs Armstrong
 
Cherel is my pick once again against Roche
Cherel @ -103 vs Roche
 
That's all for today. One last stage afterward.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Veteran
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Joined: Apr, 2007
Posts: 3552
Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by n1ck:



Brown @ +333 vs Davis    
 

O'grady @ -124 vs Rojas            
 

Rogers @+145 vs Sanchez    
 

Pereiro @ -105 vs Armstrong          
 

Cherel @ -103 vs Roche            
 


-1.24 ... Oh well, there goes the nice profit overall. One more chance to see if your capping skills can get you up over 1 unit profit overall.


 
Prospect
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Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 289
Posted: #30
I went 1-4 in fact.
 
Cherel was my only winner @ -103
Therefore I'm showing a -1.4 units record
 
Brown is the only pick I really lost, for the 3 others, O'grady was once again in the top 5 but Rojas finished 2 positions in front...for the 2ne place overall.
 
Rogers ranked 18th, Sanchez 12th
Armstron 23rd, Pereiro 32nd
Cherel 15th, Roche 22nd
 
There were all in the same group which included 38 cyclists
 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 289
Posted: #31
Last day, flat closed circuit....
 
Renshaw @ -125 vs McEwen
O'grady @ +145 vs Rojas
Elmiger @ -155 vs Santambrogio
Davis @ -125 vs Brown
 
Adding Davis @ +200 for the stage win
 
Veteran
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Joined: Apr, 2007
Posts: 3552
Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by n1ck:


 
Renshaw @ -125 vs McEwen       
O'grady @ +145 vs Rojas         
Elmiger @ -155 vs Santambrogio     
Davis @ -125 vs Brown        
 
Adding Davis @ +200 for the stage win           


Ouch, not that great of a tune-up for next Tours but seems like you always finish the tours with losing picks. So it's following the beginning and fading the end.

Rogers ends up 6th so it was a close call.
 
Prospect
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Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 289
Posted: #33
Bad ending, hard start for the season.
 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 289
Posted: #34
-4.9 units...damn
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