Cycling: 2009 Tour Down Under

My units are per every $100.

I've set myself 1000 units to use. Just incase they bet on stage wins.

Sometime today I'll be placing these bets on because I need to get prices to cover myself.

Michael Rogers to win @ $12 (1)
Luis Leon Sanchez to win @ $7 (1.5)

Top 3

Michael Rogers @ $4 (3.5)

That should cover me for these riders. Michael is in good form. Very good form.

To win I will also be putting money on the following riders but no price yet as I have to quote them.

Adam Hansen
Trent Lowe
Matthew Lloyd

These guys are very good young australian riders who are in with a chance. Lloyd finished top 10 last year. I'm going to have Lloyd top 3 aswell. The units will be small as these odds will be probably triple figure. So if they are, they will be only .1 or .2 or something like that.

-----

I can't understand Armstrong being favourite. Yes his team couldn't keep up with him on old willunga hill, but this box hasn't raced for like 3 years. He can't expect to win. If he does win, there is something wrong with the quality of the riders nowadays or he's still doping. I would say the latter.

Rogers @ $12/$4 is a steal if you ask me. He is the favourite over here and I believe it. Strong team to back him up and Columbia are determined to win.

I might place more on Rogers yet. I'm being conservative considering it's the first race of the season to any profit will be good profit.

Good luck!

1.5 units on Rogers to win @ $21
3.5 units on Rogers to place @ $3

1 unit on Luis Leon Sanchez to win @ $11
0.5 unit on Bernard Eisel to win @ $17

0.3 unit on Adam Hansen to win @ $31
0.3 unit on Matthew Lloyd to win @ $31

0.2 unit on Trent Lowe to win @ $67

----

Rogers is my main bet. If any of the others get up, I still make a profit. If Rogers gets up it's pay day.

hey man great write ups , was wondering where you actually played these bets

also , do you do matchups fr stages as offered by a major book like bet365 ?

How about finishing 120th haha Lance. This guy is a JOKE. That is such a pathetic effort. Like I said, any other dude in the matchup would have been a decent bet. You'd have to be unlucky like hell to have one of the 13 other guys behind him in the matchup.But, what the hell is David Moncoutie doing in 122nd place .  Now, can Lance beat Jens Voigt in stage 2 ... Try doing better than a 2 - 2 split and never back the cancer crusader who desperately needs to get doped again.

Wow nice, better keep your camera out of the way though.

As for the matchups, please take a look right HERE , they are from Pinnacle and basically are the same as the ones from BET365. Difference is bet365 has so much juice that it's ridiculous.

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts .

oh sorry , screwed up the link ,  should be a shortcut   HERE 

Elmiger @ +151 vs Roche, team partners, it's a coin toss with good odds

Isassi @ +155 vs Santambrogio, Isassi can sprint and climb pretty well.

Rogers @ +145 vs Sanchez, time to impress for Rogers

Armstrong @ +133 vs Voigt, time to show up for Lance.

___

Went 2-2 yesterday with a record of -0.05 units, playing 1 unit on dogs and whatever it needs of favorite to win 1 unit.

Not looking good in those head to heads. I think Rogers was towards the front. and Lloyd attacked the last few laps of the circuit so he might have finished at the back.

Tactical error again by Columbia - should have sent someone up in the break rather than preserve Greipel's lead. But they are obviously trying to either a) save a Rogers onslaught on Saturday or b) hope greipel makes it to the end of Saturday's stage.

I am the king.

5 George Hincapie (USA) Team Columbia - High Road         0.04
6 José Joaquin Rojas Gil (Spa) Caisse D'Epargne              
7 Mauro Santambrogio (Ita) Lampre - N.G.C                    
8 Tom Leezer (Ned) Rabobank                                  
9 Mickaël Buffaz (Fra) Cofidis                               
10 André Greipel (Ger) Team Columbia - High Road             
11 Ryder Hesjedal (Can) Garmin-Slipstream                    
12 Baden Cooke (Aus) UniSA                                   
13 Jussi Veikkanen (Fin) Française Des Jeux                  
14 Wesley Sulzberger (Aus) Française Des Jeux                
15 Mickaël Chérel (Fra) Française Des Jeux                   
16 Mathew Hayman (Aus) Rabobank                              
17 Rémy Di Grégorio (Fra) Française Des Jeux                 
[U][B]18 Michael Rogers (Aus) Team Columbia - High Road [/B] [/U]          
19 Nicolas Roche (Irl) AG2R La Mondiale                   0.08
[B]20 Luis Leon Sanchez Gil (Spa) Caisse D'Epargne    [/B]          
21 Mathieu Perget (Fra) Caisse D'Epargne                     
[B][U]22 Matthew Lloyd (Aus) Silence - Lotto [/U][/B]                      
23 Christian Knees (Ger) Team Milram                         
24 Iñaki Isasi Flores (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi              
25 Matthew Wilson (Aus) UniSA                                
26 Vincent Jérôme (Fra) Bbox Bouygues Telecom                
27 Hubert Schwab (Swi) Quick Step                         0.13
28 Pieter Jacobs (Bel) Silence - Lotto                       
29 Simon Clarke (Aus) UniSA                                  
30 Sébastien Hinault (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale                  
31 Oscar Pereiro Sio (Spa) Caisse D'Epargne                  
32 Anders Lund (Den) Team Saxo Bank                          
33 Javier Megías Leal (Spa) Fuji-Servetto                    
34 Markel Irizar Aranburu (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi          
[B]35 William Walker (Aus) Fuji-Servetto    [/B]      

What is more important though is the General Classification

Rogers now has a 4 second lead over the challengers.

Assuming that he finishes in the group on Saturday and they drop the sprinters like O'Grady on the last climb and someone like Elmiger isn't there, Rogers is in the box seat. Sanchez and Co are unlikely to escape from Rogers.

Elmiger or Rogers takes this.

I am the king.

5 George Hincapie (USA) Team Columbia - High Road         0.04
6 José Joaquin Rojas Gil (Spa) Caisse D'Epargne              
7 Mauro Santambrogio (Ita) Lampre - N.G.C                    
8 Tom Leezer (Ned) Rabobank                                  
9 Mickaël Buffaz (Fra) Cofidis                               
10 André Greipel (Ger) Team Columbia - High Road             
11 Ryder Hesjedal (Can) Garmin-Slipstream                    
12 Baden Cooke (Aus) UniSA                                   
13 Jussi Veikkanen (Fin) Française Des Jeux                  
14 Wesley Sulzberger (Aus) Française Des Jeux                
15 Mickaël Chérel (Fra) Française Des Jeux                   
16 Mathew Hayman (Aus) Rabobank                              
17 Rémy Di Grégorio (Fra) Française Des Jeux                 
[U][B]18 Michael Rogers (Aus) Team Columbia - High Road [/B] [/U]          
19 Nicolas Roche (Irl) AG2R La Mondiale                   0.08
[B]20 Luis Leon Sanchez Gil (Spa) Caisse D'Epargne    [/B]          
21 Mathieu Perget (Fra) Caisse D'Epargne                     
[B][U]22 Matthew Lloyd (Aus) Silence - Lotto [/U][/B]                      
23 Christian Knees (Ger) Team Milram                         
24 Iñaki Isasi Flores (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi              
25 Matthew Wilson (Aus) UniSA                                
26 Vincent Jérôme (Fra) Bbox Bouygues Telecom                
27 Hubert Schwab (Swi) Quick Step                         0.13
28 Pieter Jacobs (Bel) Silence - Lotto                       
29 Simon Clarke (Aus) UniSA                                  
30 Sébastien Hinault (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale                  
31 Oscar Pereiro Sio (Spa) Caisse D'Epargne                  
32 Anders Lund (Den) Team Saxo Bank                          
33 Javier Megías Leal (Spa) Fuji-Servetto                    
34 Markel Irizar Aranburu (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi          
[B]35 William Walker (Aus) Fuji-Servetto    [/B]      

What is more important though is the General Classification

Rogers now has a 4 second lead over the challengers.

Assuming that he finishes in the group on Saturday and they drop the sprinters like O'Grady on the last climb and someone like Elmiger isn't there, Rogers is in the box seat. Sanchez and Co are unlikely to escape from Rogers.

Elmiger or Rogers takes this.

3 dog winners , I'll take that any day . Nicely done.

Man, your bankroll must really be loving these cycling tours

Perfect 2 - 0 with another dog cashing in. Nicely done as well. This thread has quite a lot of signs in it. Might have to jump on board .

BOL with your final tour bets .

Went 3-1 yesterday in plus money, showing a 5-3 record up 3.24 units.

Another flat stage, therefore once again you should put the best sprinter in your card.

Greipel went from 1.65 to 1.49, against Brown, but he's still the best sprinter out there, go for it anyway, cost lot of juice.
Greipel @ -203 vs Brown

Davis won last stage but Cooke has some sprinter skills as well, he's shown as a big underdog so perfect value.
Cooke @ +144 vs Davis

Armstrong did show up a bit last stage, but for #3, he has nothing to win in that sprinter stage. He will take it easy and finish just behind Voigt in early hundred.
Voigt @ -105 vs Armstrong


Elmiger did a good job yesterday finished top 5. I expect something good again, battling for overall top 10.
Elmiger @ -101 vs Santambrogio

One last pick, O'grady is showing good constance with 2 top 5.
O'grady @ -105 vs Rojas

Greipel, Reus and Lowe withdraw from the race after a crash, therefore I'm losing 2.03 units on my play against Brown.

With half race to go, O'grady is looking pretty good.

See, once again, too much juice in a cycling bet leads to a loss. This is a trend that needs to be taken into consideration. Need to look for value around the +100 line if books still offer enough of them as the tour progresses.

Seems like Amstrong is locked up with Voigt in the matchups. Any thoughts Bolar ?