Posted:
#26
***Note, cancelled bet on Lovkvist over Hesjedal ( 7 units refund)
Cycling: 2009 Giro d'Italia
Posted:
#27
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:
Stage 2
5 units Cavendish to win @ $1.80
3 units Davis over Farrar @ $2.61
Adding
2.5 units Haedo over Forster @ $2.58
Good luck!
LOST
WON
WON
Profit 3.78 units
Giro: 6.28 units
Another profitable day.
Yes they are small profits but in the end they do add up.
Posted:
#30
Columbia (Cav) never fuck up 2 stages in a row. This happeend last year in some major races that they fucked up and got it right the next time around. The same pattern will follow.
There was a Giro stage last year.
There was a Tour stage last year
There was a Tour Down Under stage this year.
And a few other ones over past 16 months that Columbia seem to fuck up and the next day bounce back. Yesterday was a warmup after a heavy stage 1. Cav did a lot of work stage 1.
Posted:
#34
Final GC Winner
.5 units Rogers @ $46
He should fuck off his TDF ambitions and go straight out for the win here. He is in career best form! Use it when you have it.
Stage 4 Winner
1 unit Rodriguez @ $13
.5 units Rogers @ $41
.2 units Voeckler @ $51
2 units Rodriguez over Garzelli @ $2.25
8 units Rogers over Bruzeghin @ $1.70
Taking the risk here. Rodriguez is in good form and I have pinpointed him for this stage. Rogers is in excellent form so should be at the end.
Voeckler will be in today's break. That Frenchman is going all out for a Giro stage win this year. Keep him in the back of your mind. He will probably go for a stage where the break will go away, but I'm not taking any chances.
.5 units Rogers @ $46
He should fuck off his TDF ambitions and go straight out for the win here. He is in career best form! Use it when you have it.
Stage 4 Winner
1 unit Rodriguez @ $13
.5 units Rogers @ $41
.2 units Voeckler @ $51
2 units Rodriguez over Garzelli @ $2.25
8 units Rogers over Bruzeghin @ $1.70
Taking the risk here. Rodriguez is in good form and I have pinpointed him for this stage. Rogers is in excellent form so should be at the end.
Voeckler will be in today's break. That Frenchman is going all out for a Giro stage win this year. Keep him in the back of your mind. He will probably go for a stage where the break will go away, but I'm not taking any chances.
Posted:
#35
After doing some more research on this final climb of the day, I have made a last minute play.
.2 units Lovkvist @ $51
.2 units Cancellara @ $101
Basically this climb is going to suit someone with power. It's not that hard and the last 500m is pancake. So Cancellara has had an injury riddled year. What more to get back into form than win this stage tonight? Yes he can climb and he could chrono away from them. Possibility. Something worth considering in my eyes for a lousy .2 units @ $101 to make over 20 units. If it doesn't get up, all I have lost is .2 units. Worth the play IMO.
Lovkvist is in good form and putting a nibble on him.
Good luck!
What were those odds ? 
Posted:
#39
I think it was around 3.5 or 4. I found inside info and yesterday race resume. Petacchi said Di Luca would probably be in rosa at the end of today's stage.
Anyway, I ended up in plus money.
Szmyd set up the pace for the last climb, he did his domestique job perfectly for his teamates finishing 3rd and 8th.
Today's results : 2-2 (+1.59 units)
Total : 4-5-0 (-1.45 units)
Posted:
#40
Pinnacle is offering sweet odds for tomorrow's stage
Here are my plays for stage 6:
Basso over Lovkvist @ 2.8 (4 units) Very good value, Basso will be part of the break and should finish in the top 15
Rogers over Kessiakoff @ 1.654 (4 units) I've never heard of him before.
Cunego over Pellizotti @ 1.685 (4units) Cunego is one of the favorite to win the stage, probably a top 10 for him and Pellizotti win be around 50th.
Haedo over Cavendish @ 2.48 (2.5 units) I'm not sure Cavendish will be in the group but Haedo might be, I'm taking the risk at high price low units.
Here are my plays for stage 6:
Basso over Lovkvist @ 2.8 (4 units) Very good value, Basso will be part of the break and should finish in the top 15
Rogers over Kessiakoff @ 1.654 (4 units) I've never heard of him before.
Cunego over Pellizotti @ 1.685 (4units) Cunego is one of the favorite to win the stage, probably a top 10 for him and Pellizotti win be around 50th.
Haedo over Cavendish @ 2.48 (2.5 units) I'm not sure Cavendish will be in the group but Haedo might be, I'm taking the risk at high price low units.
Posted:
#41
Quote Originally Posted by n1ck:
Pinnacle is offering sweet odds for tomorrow's stage
Here are my plays for stage 6:
Basso over Lovkvist @ 2.8 (4 units) Very good value, Basso will be part of the break and should finish in the top 15
Rogers over Kessiakoff @ 1.654 (4 units) I've never heard of him before.
Cunego over Pellizotti @ 1.685 (4units) Cunego is one of the favorite to win the stage, probably a top 10 for him and Pellizotti win be around 50th.
Haedo over Cavendish @ 2.48 (2.5 units) I'm not sure Cavendish will be in the group but Haedo might be, I'm taking the risk at high price low units.
Pinnacle is offering sweet odds for tomorrow's stage
Here are my plays for stage 6:
Basso over Lovkvist @ 2.8 (4 units) Very good value, Basso will be part of the break and should finish in the top 15
Rogers over Kessiakoff @ 1.654 (4 units) I've never heard of him before.
Cunego over Pellizotti @ 1.685 (4units) Cunego is one of the favorite to win the stage, probably a top 10 for him and Pellizotti win be around 50th.
Haedo over Cavendish @ 2.48 (2.5 units) I'm not sure Cavendish will be in the group but Haedo might be, I'm taking the risk at high price low units.
Good risk on that Cavendish one.
Looks like you are doing okay. I'm going average.
Posted:
#42
Stage 6 reaks of a breakaway attempt
Although now Columbia don't have pink anymore, expect them to try and set it up for Cav if noone is in the break. Has the makings of MSR. The last climb of the day (there are only 2 climbs) comes just over 40km from the end. Leaves Columbia enough time to bring back a break providing the break hasn't gone out far. Therefore odds of Pettachi @ $12 and Cavendish @ $34 are juicy. I'm banking on Columbia taking this back and setting it up for Cav.
I'm also looking at a few breakaway chances.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If a break was to get away I've narrowed the teams down and riders who will be represented.
Barloworld will send someone to the front. Bellotti, Froom and Augustyn will be the main candidates. Augustyn is 3 minutes down so that will be a risk of being chased down as he can climb. Froom did a lot of work yesterday? I would say Bellotti.
BBOX will send someone up there. I don't think it will be Voeckler. Tschopp or Sprick will be the two candidates. Although it wouldnt' surprise me if Voeckler tried again. He's that type of rider and he wants a win.
David Millar will definately try and get in the group for Garmin. He has unfinished business after last year.
Caisse may try and send David Garcia Lopez.
ISD - As Visconti tried yesterday, I don't think he will try again today. Although I could be wrong. Dario Cioni would be my main bet or Andriy Grivko.
Lampre will send someone. The logical choice will be Manuele Mori
Serramenti might try someone again. It was Serpa yesterday so again I don't think he will try. Maybe Rodriguez or Scarponi? Probably Scarponi as he is far down.
Columbia will send someone. Possoni is my bet.
Katusha will send someone. Ignatiev will be the guy.
Milram will send someone aswell. I reckon Marcus Fothen.
Saxo Bank will have someone. Cancellara or Voigt. I fancy Cancellara!
Cervello may send Gerrans up the road. Possibility.
Although don't count out one or two of the sprinters try and get there. Pozzato or Forster.
Gilbert will definately try and get in the break.
AG2R will send Efimkin
Although dont' count out a sprint finish with 40 - 60 riders featuring Pettacchi and Cavendish. Afterall the last climb comes more than 40km from the end. Depends how motivated Columbia are. Considering they don't have the pink jersey if they can't get anyone in the break, then see them work their arse off for Cavendish.
Although now Columbia don't have pink anymore, expect them to try and set it up for Cav if noone is in the break. Has the makings of MSR. The last climb of the day (there are only 2 climbs) comes just over 40km from the end. Leaves Columbia enough time to bring back a break providing the break hasn't gone out far. Therefore odds of Pettachi @ $12 and Cavendish @ $34 are juicy. I'm banking on Columbia taking this back and setting it up for Cav.
I'm also looking at a few breakaway chances.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If a break was to get away I've narrowed the teams down and riders who will be represented.
Barloworld will send someone to the front. Bellotti, Froom and Augustyn will be the main candidates. Augustyn is 3 minutes down so that will be a risk of being chased down as he can climb. Froom did a lot of work yesterday? I would say Bellotti.
BBOX will send someone up there. I don't think it will be Voeckler. Tschopp or Sprick will be the two candidates. Although it wouldnt' surprise me if Voeckler tried again. He's that type of rider and he wants a win.
David Millar will definately try and get in the group for Garmin. He has unfinished business after last year.
Caisse may try and send David Garcia Lopez.
ISD - As Visconti tried yesterday, I don't think he will try again today. Although I could be wrong. Dario Cioni would be my main bet or Andriy Grivko.
Lampre will send someone. The logical choice will be Manuele Mori
Serramenti might try someone again. It was Serpa yesterday so again I don't think he will try. Maybe Rodriguez or Scarponi? Probably Scarponi as he is far down.
Columbia will send someone. Possoni is my bet.
Katusha will send someone. Ignatiev will be the guy.
Milram will send someone aswell. I reckon Marcus Fothen.
Saxo Bank will have someone. Cancellara or Voigt. I fancy Cancellara!
Cervello may send Gerrans up the road. Possibility.
Although don't count out one or two of the sprinters try and get there. Pozzato or Forster.
Gilbert will definately try and get in the break.
AG2R will send Efimkin
Although dont' count out a sprint finish with 40 - 60 riders featuring Pettacchi and Cavendish. Afterall the last climb comes more than 40km from the end. Depends how motivated Columbia are. Considering they don't have the pink jersey if they can't get anyone in the break, then see them work their arse off for Cavendish.
Posted:
#43
Stage 6
1 unit Mark Cavendish @ $34
1 unit Alessandro Pettachi @ $14
1 unit Alessandro Pettachi @ $14
Banking on a sprint!
On a breakaway.
.15 unit Millar @ $36
.15 unit Voeckler @ $31
.15 unit Cancellara @ $51
.1 unit Possoni @ $67
.1 unit Cioni @ $67
.1 unit Mori @ $51 - Now that Cunego is out of the hunt, Lampre hunt stage wins?
.15 unit Ignatiev @ $41
.1 unit Fothen @ $51
.1 unit Forster @ $101
.1 unit Tschopp @ $81
.1 unit Sprick @ $81
.5 units Gilbert @ $15
.2 units Voigt @ $14
.15 unit Voeckler @ $31
.15 unit Cancellara @ $51
.1 unit Possoni @ $67
.1 unit Cioni @ $67
.1 unit Mori @ $51 - Now that Cunego is out of the hunt, Lampre hunt stage wins?
.15 unit Ignatiev @ $41
.1 unit Fothen @ $51
.1 unit Forster @ $101
.1 unit Tschopp @ $81
.1 unit Sprick @ $81
.5 units Gilbert @ $15
.2 units Voigt @ $14
4 units staked!
Good luck!
Posted:
#45
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:
Stage 6
1 unit Mark Cavendish @ $34
1 unit Alessandro Pettachi @ $14
1 unit Alessandro Pettachi @ $14
Banking on a sprint!
On a breakaway.
.15 unit Millar @ $36
.15 unit Voeckler @ $31
.15 unit Cancellara @ $51
.1 unit Possoni @ $67
.1 unit Cioni @ $67
.1 unit Mori @ $51 - Now that Cunego is out of the hunt, Lampre hunt stage wins?
.15 unit Ignatiev @ $41
.1 unit Fothen @ $51
.1 unit Forster @ $101
.1 unit Tschopp @ $81
.1 unit Sprick @ $81
.5 units Gilbert @ $15
.2 units Voigt @ $14
.15 unit Voeckler @ $31
.15 unit Cancellara @ $51
.1 unit Possoni @ $67
.1 unit Cioni @ $67
.1 unit Mori @ $51 - Now that Cunego is out of the hunt, Lampre hunt stage wins?
.15 unit Ignatiev @ $41
.1 unit Fothen @ $51
.1 unit Forster @ $101
.1 unit Tschopp @ $81
.1 unit Sprick @ $81
.5 units Gilbert @ $15
.2 units Voigt @ $14
4 units staked!
Adding
.3 Scarponi @ $34
.2 Froom @ $34
Good luck!
Scarponi won
4.5 units staked.
Stage 6 - +5.7 units
Stage 1. +2.5 units
Stage 2. +3.78 units
Stage 3. -10
Stage 4. -12.1
Stage 5. -0.5 units
Stage 6. +5.7 units
Overall -10.62 units
No big fuss. Leipheimer is in a prime position.
Posted:
#47
The descent on this stage might be tricky but I think the sprinters teams will keep this under control.
Cav finished 15 minutes behind yesterday so he either a) struggled up the climb b)took it easy and didn't over exert himself on the climb. I think B
Therefore a motivated Cav will win this.
7 units Cav @ $4.25
Good luck!
Cav finished 15 minutes behind yesterday so he either a) struggled up the climb b)took it easy and didn't over exert himself on the climb. I think B
Therefore a motivated Cav will win this.
7 units Cav @ $4.25
Good luck!
Posted:
#49
Basically this stage tonight is a general incline of about 150km going to 1200m. It shouldn't be that hard for the sprinters teams to get it under control. The descent starts just over 30km from the finish. From there the first 4km are technical so if the break is within 2 minutes, it should be chased down as the road is completely straight.
However, this stage is tailormade for a powerful rider who can time trial who is daring enough to escape before the top and before the descent or on the descent. That's where Cancellara and Millar come into play. I know Millar is going to try a break eventually. I'll keep backing the brittish box till he does. It would not surprise me to see him there today to take the pressure off garmin when setting it up for Farrar. However, this is where Cancellara can also come in handy.
However, this stage is tailormade for a powerful rider who can time trial who is daring enough to escape before the top and before the descent or on the descent. That's where Cancellara and Millar come into play. I know Millar is going to try a break eventually. I'll keep backing the brittish box till he does. It would not surprise me to see him there today to take the pressure off garmin when setting it up for Farrar. However, this is where Cancellara can also come in handy.
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