Posted:
#76
hmmm, very rudimentary capping from me has this total at 189.8, which makes me think UNDER is a play.
Battler's NBL Round 13
Posted:
#78
feeeeeyarrrk Battler!
Ok here's my leans on totals alone, based on my totals capping "system" (fugging hate that word)
Toronto vs Indiana o209
Memphis vs Ocklahoma o202.5
Minnesota vs Denver o205
your game comes out as a marginal under, but not enough to justify a play and the Atlanta vs SA game is also a marginal under but not quite strong enough.
I'll wait and see on a few, what happens with line movement vs public action.
Posted:
#79
Battler, I'm continually evaluating and re-evaluating this league. And I've long wondered whether fronting up each day and playing spreads / totals is a highway to nowhere.
Unlike the NBL, the NBA lines and totals are really really sharp. I'm looking at whether big + ML dogs are worth hitting up when the situation is right or when their price is "over the odds" based on history / schedule ect.
Also, you know those spots where a line just looks way too soft? ie Detroit vs Portland a week or so ago. You know when you (or me at least) has fallen hook, line and sinker into betting along with the rest of the "squares" by thinking detroit "looks like a steal" at that price and sure enough you feel like a big fat barracuda when you wake up on monday morning and see the 'stones' trailing by 8 midway through the third period ! 
In other words, lines that look way too easy, going agianst what looks too easy.
yeah.
Posted:
#80
Quote Originally Posted by Jive_Turkey:
feeeeeyarrrk Battler!
Ok here's my leans on totals alone, based on my totals capping "system" (fugging hate that word)
Toronto vs Indiana o209 - not sure Tor should be fav, but the total is right on IMO. Under if anything
Memphis vs Ocklahoma o202.5 - agree
Minnesota vs Denver o205 - marginal again. Under maybe
your game comes out as a marginal under, but not enough to justify a play and the Atlanta vs SA game is also a marginal under but not quite strong enough. - haven't looked at the Atl v SA yet
I'll wait and see on a few, what happens with line movement vs public action.
Posted:
#82
Quote Originally Posted by Jive_Turkey:
Battler, I'm continually evaluating and re-evaluating this league. And I've long wondered whether fronting up each day and playing spreads / totals is a highway to nowhere. - this could be said for any league, anywhere (other than the WNBL, in which case you're my man)...I plug along, will probably have a bet most days.
Unlike the NBL, the NBA lines and totals are really really sharp. I'm looking at whether big + ML dogs are worth hitting up when the situation is right or when their price is "over the odds" based on history / schedule ect. - I agree, I win more playing dogs (ml or spread) than favs.
Also, you know those spots where a line just looks way too soft? ie Detroit vs Portland a week or so ago. You know when you (or me at least) has fallen hook, line and sinker into betting along with the rest of the "squares" by thinking detroit "looks like a steal" at that price and sure enough you feel like a big fat barracuda when you wake up on monday morning and see the 'stones' trailing by 8 midway through the third period ! - Of course. Get done often. I even convince myself of the double reverse, jet-filtered, turbo-charged, hyper-trap lines. Those things fuckng shit me...
- Of course. Get done often. I even convince myself of the double reverse, jet-filtered, turbo-charged, hyper-trap lines. Those things fuckng shit me...In other words, lines that look way too easy, going agianst what looks too easy. - the public do win sometimes (Carolina this MNF)
yeah. - word
Kerry 
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