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    All Forums | Other

    AFL Round 9 - Discussion

    12 Next Last»
    tozer
    Bolar
    Miracle1976
    HeadOverHeart
    gmanea
    ...
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 469
    Posts: 26
    12 Next Last»
     
    tozer
    tozer
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    Posted: May. 18, 2008 - 11:03 PM ET #1

    Yes its Monady and already looking at next round. Here are the odds, lines are just guessed but should be pretty accurate. The Hawks line might be a few points off.

     

    Thoughts???

     

    Collingwood $1.22 v Geelong $3.80     34

    Carlton $1.72 v Freo $2.00                    9

    Port $1.60 v Sydney $2.20                   14

    WC $3.35 v Adelaide $1.28                  25

    Essendon $2.75 v Richmond $1.40     23

    Brisbane $1.33 v St Kilda $3.00           21

    Melbourne $8.00 v Hawthorn $1.05      62

    Bulldogs $1.47 v Kangaroos $2.50      19

    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    Yes its Monady and already looking at next round. Here are the odds, lines are just guessed but should be pretty accurate. The Hawks line might be a few points off.

     

    Thoughts???

     

    Collingwood $1.22 v Geelong $3.80     34

    Carlton $1.72 v Freo $2.00                    9

    Port $1.60 v Sydney $2.20                   14

    WC $3.35 v Adelaide $1.28                  25

    Essendon $2.75 v Richmond $1.40     23

    Brisbane $1.33 v St Kilda $3.00           21

    Melbourne $8.00 v Hawthorn $1.05      62

    Bulldogs $1.47 v Kangaroos $2.50      19

     
    tozer
    tozer
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    Posted: May. 18, 2008 - 11:39 PM ET #2

    Early leans...
     
    Cats game:
    If its raining again (which at the moment the forcast is fine) the line is too high and I'll be on the pies.
     
    Blues game:
    Scared to take either side because the dockers have f*cked me 2 round in a row!!!!
     
    Port game:
    As much as I like the swans as they have hardly put a step wrong this year and are my outsider for the cup, Port at home is extremely hard to beat and think 14pts is reasonable to back Port to win.
     
    WC game:
    Probably won't touch, under is always likely with these 2 teams.
     
    Dons game:
    Jesus these lines are tight, I'm going to have to go for some dogs this week. Line about right for this.
     
    Lions game:
    Tempting to take the lions, very strong at the gabba. Possibility!!
     
    Hawks game:
    Probably won't touch, I thought the Dees were much better improved last week, even though they got slaughtered. Will get slaughtered again but 62
     
    Bulldogs game:
    I might take the dogs, west could be back, kangas might have injuries.
    Reply
    Early leans...
     
    Cats game:
    If its raining again (which at the moment the forcast is fine) the line is too high and I'll be on the pies.
     
    Blues game:
    Scared to take either side because the dockers have f*cked me 2 round in a row!!!!
     
    Port game:
    As much as I like the swans as they have hardly put a step wrong this year and are my outsider for the cup, Port at home is extremely hard to beat and think 14pts is reasonable to back Port to win.
     
    WC game:
    Probably won't touch, under is always likely with these 2 teams.
     
    Dons game:
    Jesus these lines are tight, I'm going to have to go for some dogs this week. Line about right for this.
     
    Lions game:
    Tempting to take the lions, very strong at the gabba. Possibility!!
     
    Hawks game:
    Probably won't touch, I thought the Dees were much better improved last week, even though they got slaughtered. Will get slaughtered again but 62
     
    Bulldogs game:
    I might take the dogs, west could be back, kangas might have injuries.
     
    Bolar
    Bolar
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    Posted: May. 18, 2008 - 11:49 PM ET #3

    Hawks will flog Melbourne by 12+ goals.

    Brisbane will flog St.Kilda by 5+ goals.

    Sydney will cover the spread in Adelaide

     

    Reply

    Hawks will flog Melbourne by 12+ goals.

    Brisbane will flog St.Kilda by 5+ goals.

    Sydney will cover the spread in Adelaide

     

     
    Miracle1976
    Miracle1976
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    Posted: May. 19, 2008 - 12:17 AM ET #4

    Quote Originally Posted by tozer:

    Yes its Monady and already looking at next round. Here are the odds, lines are just guessed but should be pretty accurate. The Hawks line might be a few points off.

     

    Thoughts???

     

    Collingwood $1.22 v Geelong $3.80     34

    Carlton $1.72 v Freo $2.00                    9

    Port $1.60 v Sydney $2.20                   14

    WC $3.35 v Adelaide $1.28                  25

    Essendon $2.75 v Richmond $1.40     23

    Brisbane $1.33 v St Kilda $3.00           21

    Melbourne $8.00 v Hawthorn $1.05      62

    Bulldogs $1.47 v Kangaroos $2.50      19

    I'll put a few bucks on the Cats at that price....think they are good value 

    Seriously my main lean's just looking at those lines would be Carl, Bris & Adel.  Will do more research and let you know my thoughts as the week unfolds....and thanks for starting the thread tozer  

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by tozer:

    Yes its Monady and already looking at next round. Here are the odds, lines are just guessed but should be pretty accurate. The Hawks line might be a few points off.

     

    Thoughts???

     

    Collingwood $1.22 v Geelong $3.80     34

    Carlton $1.72 v Freo $2.00                    9

    Port $1.60 v Sydney $2.20                   14

    WC $3.35 v Adelaide $1.28                  25

    Essendon $2.75 v Richmond $1.40     23

    Brisbane $1.33 v St Kilda $3.00           21

    Melbourne $8.00 v Hawthorn $1.05      62

    Bulldogs $1.47 v Kangaroos $2.50      19

    I'll put a few bucks on the Cats at that price....think they are good value 

    Seriously my main lean's just looking at those lines would be Carl, Bris & Adel.  Will do more research and let you know my thoughts as the week unfolds....and thanks for starting the thread tozer  

     
    HeadOverHeart
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posted: May. 19, 2008 - 5:55 PM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by tozer:

    Yes its Monady and already looking at next round. Here are the odds, lines are just guessed but should be pretty accurate. The Hawks line might be a few points off.

     

    Thoughts???

     

    Collingwood $1.22 v Geelong $3.80     34

    Carlton $1.72 v Freo $2.00                    9

    Port $1.60 v Sydney $2.20                   14

    WC $3.35 v Adelaide $1.28                  25

    Essendon $2.75 v Richmond $1.40     23

    Brisbane $1.33 v St Kilda $3.00           21

    Melbourne $8.00 v Hawthorn $1.05      62

    Bulldogs $1.47 v Kangaroos $2.50      19



    Give the Swans 14 and I am all over that like you know what.  Won't even research it.

    Of course, I would and then I would decide, but I would be very, very happy.  I expected 9-ish.

    Bulldogs will cover anything under 20.  At TD and they will outrun and outgun a Roos side that had trouble putting away the Eagles.....a slow and tepid offense for sure.  Freo did us a favor by putting the fright in the Dogs and they will come out blazing in the friendly confines of the Dome.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by tozer:

    Yes its Monady and already looking at next round. Here are the odds, lines are just guessed but should be pretty accurate. The Hawks line might be a few points off.

     

    Thoughts???

     

    Collingwood $1.22 v Geelong $3.80     34

    Carlton $1.72 v Freo $2.00                    9

    Port $1.60 v Sydney $2.20                   14

    WC $3.35 v Adelaide $1.28                  25

    Essendon $2.75 v Richmond $1.40     23

    Brisbane $1.33 v St Kilda $3.00           21

    Melbourne $8.00 v Hawthorn $1.05      62

    Bulldogs $1.47 v Kangaroos $2.50      19



    Give the Swans 14 and I am all over that like you know what.  Won't even research it.

    Of course, I would and then I would decide, but I would be very, very happy.  I expected 9-ish.

    Bulldogs will cover anything under 20.  At TD and they will outrun and outgun a Roos side that had trouble putting away the Eagles.....a slow and tepid offense for sure.  Freo did us a favor by putting the fright in the Dogs and they will come out blazing in the friendly confines of the Dome.
     
    Miracle1976
    Miracle1976
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    Posted: May. 19, 2008 - 11:24 PM ET #6

    My gut feel for this week is Geelong.  Collingwood isn't playing all that great as they haven't 'really' beaten anyone special, and I know that Geel haven't done the same but hwne they came up against the Saints (potential GF team...at the time) they stepped up to the challenge!  They are coasting at the moment, but to date they have the best defence, better midfield than Coll and better attack.

    Can anyone tell me a good reason(s) not to back the Cats in this spot 

    Reply

    My gut feel for this week is Geelong.  Collingwood isn't playing all that great as they haven't 'really' beaten anyone special, and I know that Geel haven't done the same but hwne they came up against the Saints (potential GF team...at the time) they stepped up to the challenge!  They are coasting at the moment, but to date they have the best defence, better midfield than Coll and better attack.

    Can anyone tell me a good reason(s) not to back the Cats in this spot 

     
    tozer
    tozer
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    Posted: May. 20, 2008 - 12:55 AM ET #7

    Nearly 6 goals Miracle, I don't know at this stage. I have little doubt they will win and more than likely about 5 goals. I think the line is about right. The cats wins this year 9, 99, 30, 42, 42, 1, 27, 30
     
    5 of the 8 matches are within a goal of the spread. The majority of the time they do what is needed to get a comfortable win, which is about 5 goals.
     
    So, I'm likely to pick other spots this week to get my large sum of money
    Reply
    Nearly 6 goals Miracle, I don't know at this stage. I have little doubt they will win and more than likely about 5 goals. I think the line is about right. The cats wins this year 9, 99, 30, 42, 42, 1, 27, 30
     
    5 of the 8 matches are within a goal of the spread. The majority of the time they do what is needed to get a comfortable win, which is about 5 goals.
     
    So, I'm likely to pick other spots this week to get my large sum of money
     
    HeadOverHeart
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posted: May. 20, 2008 - 5:28 PM ET #8

    Wagering on Geelong is 80 minutes of frustration because you know they could eviscerate whomever are playing.....but they choose to lollygag most of the time.

    Wagering against Geelong is 80 minutes of shitting your pants anticipating the inevitable 'five goals in three minutes' burst that seemingly lurks around every corner.










    That's why I bet on and against Geelong each and every round.

    At 1.91 apiece.  Make sure I am covered.
















    Reply
    Wagering on Geelong is 80 minutes of frustration because you know they could eviscerate whomever are playing.....but they choose to lollygag most of the time.

    Wagering against Geelong is 80 minutes of shitting your pants anticipating the inevitable 'five goals in three minutes' burst that seemingly lurks around every corner.










    That's why I bet on and against Geelong each and every round.

    At 1.91 apiece.  Make sure I am covered.
















     
    gmanea
    gmanea
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    Posted: May. 21, 2008 - 2:16 AM ET #9

    Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:

    Wagering on Geelong is 80 minutes of frustration because you know they could eviscerate whomever are playing.....but they choose to lollygag most of the time.

    Wagering against Geelong is 80 minutes of shitting your pants anticipating the inevitable 'five goals in three minutes' burst that seemingly lurks around every corner.










    That's why I bet on and against Geelong each and every round.

    At 1.91 apiece.  Make sure I am covered.


















    You see it is like this, Geelong is clearly the benchmark of the competition.  All teams see how far they are based on playing Geelong, they will look at their game against Geelong for weeks in advance and do everything they can to get it right, come out super hard.  Geelong is the prey of every team in the competition and is facing the hardest the other teams can put out week in and week out, Geelong has been "weathering the storm" so to speak for most of the games and then inevitably running away with the game at some stage.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:

    Wagering on Geelong is 80 minutes of frustration because you know they could eviscerate whomever are playing.....but they choose to lollygag most of the time.

    Wagering against Geelong is 80 minutes of shitting your pants anticipating the inevitable 'five goals in three minutes' burst that seemingly lurks around every corner.










    That's why I bet on and against Geelong each and every round.

    At 1.91 apiece.  Make sure I am covered.


















    You see it is like this, Geelong is clearly the benchmark of the competition.  All teams see how far they are based on playing Geelong, they will look at their game against Geelong for weeks in advance and do everything they can to get it right, come out super hard.  Geelong is the prey of every team in the competition and is facing the hardest the other teams can put out week in and week out, Geelong has been "weathering the storm" so to speak for most of the games and then inevitably running away with the game at some stage.
     
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: May. 21, 2008 - 2:23 AM ET #10

    Seems like not too many dog moneylines have hit this comp.....at least not as many as usual.
     
    Am wondering if this trend continues all comp where the public whips the book?
    Reply
    Seems like not too many dog moneylines have hit this comp.....at least not as many as usual.
     
    Am wondering if this trend continues all comp where the public whips the book?
     
    claycourtlesson
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: May. 21, 2008 - 2:24 AM ET #11

    2.75 on Bombers is intriguing..........hmmmm.
    Reply
    2.75 on Bombers is intriguing..........hmmmm.
     
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posted: May. 21, 2008 - 7:24 PM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:

    2.75 on Bombers is intriguing..........hmmmm.


    It is, but I couldn't back them ML right now.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:

    2.75 on Bombers is intriguing..........hmmmm.


    It is, but I couldn't back them ML right now.
     
    ecoute
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    Posted: May. 21, 2008 - 11:58 PM ET #13

    Quote Originally Posted by gmanea:



    You see it is like this, Geelong is clearly the benchmark of the competition.  All teams see how far they are based on playing Geelong, they will look at their game against Geelong for weeks in advance and do everything they can to get it right, come out super hard.  Geelong is the prey of every team in the competition and is facing the hardest the other teams can put out week in and week out, Geelong has been "weathering the storm" so to speak for most of the games and then inevitably running away with the game at some stage.

    Geelong are playing exactly like the Lions played the year they lost the GF to Port, ie, vulnerable. Who is going to lose first though, Dogs, Hawks or Cats.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by gmanea:



    You see it is like this, Geelong is clearly the benchmark of the competition.  All teams see how far they are based on playing Geelong, they will look at their game against Geelong for weeks in advance and do everything they can to get it right, come out super hard.  Geelong is the prey of every team in the competition and is facing the hardest the other teams can put out week in and week out, Geelong has been "weathering the storm" so to speak for most of the games and then inevitably running away with the game at some stage.

    Geelong are playing exactly like the Lions played the year they lost the GF to Port, ie, vulnerable. Who is going to lose first though, Dogs, Hawks or Cats.

     
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posted: May. 22, 2008 - 12:22 AM ET #14

    Quote Originally Posted by ecoute:

    Geelong are playing exactly like the Lions played the year they lost the GF to Port, ie, vulnerable. Who is going to lose first though, Dogs, Hawks or Cats.



    OOH!  OOH!  The Dees will!  The Dees will!!

    Do I win?  Huh? HUH?!  Do I win?  Oh boy, oh boy, oh boy.....
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by ecoute:

    Geelong are playing exactly like the Lions played the year they lost the GF to Port, ie, vulnerable. Who is going to lose first though, Dogs, Hawks or Cats.



    OOH!  OOH!  The Dees will!  The Dees will!!

    Do I win?  Huh? HUH?!  Do I win?  Oh boy, oh boy, oh boy.....
     
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posted: May. 22, 2008 - 12:23 AM ET #15

    Seriously though, great question and I think it is the side that runs into an opponent all-out run-and-gun for them.  It will have to be in a situation in which that team finds itself in an almost must-win, or must-win situation, and just happens to be playing the (one of those three teams).
    Reply
    Seriously though, great question and I think it is the side that runs into an opponent all-out run-and-gun for them.  It will have to be in a situation in which that team finds itself in an almost must-win, or must-win situation, and just happens to be playing the (one of those three teams).
     
    Miracle1976
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    Posted: May. 22, 2008 - 12:43 AM ET #16

    I think so HOH...Adel kicked 3.9 in the 3rd quarter so it could have been alot worse...my only concern is that 'another Hawk got suspended on the weekend, just another player that is missing from the side including one of their best in Hodge.
    Reply
    I think so HOH...Adel kicked 3.9 in the 3rd quarter so it could have been alot worse...my only concern is that 'another Hawk got suspended on the weekend, just another player that is missing from the side including one of their best in Hodge.
     
    tozer
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    Posted: May. 22, 2008 - 1:02 AM ET #17

    Quote Originally Posted by ecoute:

    Geelong are playing exactly like the Lions played the year they lost the GF to Port, ie, vulnerable. Who is going to lose first though, Dogs, Hawks or Cats.


    My prediction...

    Unfortunately the dogs will be first to go, followed by the cats.

    The dogs are a step or two off the pace of the cats and hawks. Plus the dogs play the hawks next week and I expect the hawks to come out comfortable winners.

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by ecoute:

    Geelong are playing exactly like the Lions played the year they lost the GF to Port, ie, vulnerable. Who is going to lose first though, Dogs, Hawks or Cats.


    My prediction...

    Unfortunately the dogs will be first to go, followed by the cats.

    The dogs are a step or two off the pace of the cats and hawks. Plus the dogs play the hawks next week and I expect the hawks to come out comfortable winners.

     
    Miracle1976
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    Posted: May. 22, 2008 - 9:13 AM ET #18

    Just a quick few points I want to make mention about this weekend which IMO are very important....
     
    1.  The Hawks have a couple of 'new' players into their side due to injury and suspension to some really good play makers, and the fact that the lines makers have woken up a bit more this week regarding Melb's line....I mean they were playing interstate against a top 4 side in Adel last week and the line was at 38.5 with a near full strength Adel side, and now this week they are laying an 'extra' 10 points at 48.5 back home in Melb against another top 4 side but with a few missing in Hodge, Crawford (not as gd as he used to be I know but...), McGlynn and the fact they are debuting Kennedy plus a couple of lesser likes being named on an extended bench, and also the fact that they have made 3 forced changes which from memory I don't think has happened too many times this year.
     
    2.  Stay away from the Port Vs Syd game if you are looking at backing the Swans at the line of approx 10-11 as Mark Williams is pissed off at the suspension of Burgoyne due to what he believes was accidental head high contact...what that means is, combined with the fact that they were very easierly beaten by the Swans in Syd in Rd 2 they will be 'extra' focused this week to make amends and throw in the fact that Chad Cornes and Michael Wilson has been named only adds alot more strength to their side.  When people get pissed off they simply become 'more' competitive and put in extra time and energy into achieving more from themselves. Throw in the fact that Syd have beaten Port, Bris, West Coast & Ess, drew with Nth Melb and lost to Bulldogs, Geel & Saints (Geel will finish in top 4, but the other two I'm not sure), thus the form line isn't all that flash.  Port have beaten West Coast, Saints & Ess, two of the same sides Syd have beaten, and I know Ports wins aren't that great, but then their losses are to Geel, Adel, Hawks, Bris and Syd which looking at the above Geel, Adel & Hawks will finish in the top 4. 
     
    3.  Onto the Kangaroo's Vs Bulldogs game where the points are set at 17.5  with the Dogs as favourite...why be careful, two reasons in that the Dogs have to travel back home from the West which always makes life that much more harder the following week, and 2nd factor is that this is a 'Milestone' game for North in Brent Harvey playing his 250th which for some reason (maybe the shin boner spirt) they seem to win.  Last year Glen Archer played a Milestone game and they beat the Dogs (who were favourites), North beat Freo (at Subi) in 2005 for a Milestone game which I'm not sure who it was, but guessing I think it was Leigh Colbert.  Don't know many other games, but a good mate of mine is a Kangaroo's supporter and he always siad that they don't lose too many Milestone games.
     
    Anyway, they are just acouple of thoughts on the above games so take them as you wish and I hope the above comments help you out.  Comments are of course more than welcome.
     
    P.S. Really like the LA Lakers on Sat at the generous line of -6.5, Spurs had their chance to take home court advanatge away from the Lakers today but coughed it up(they were up by 20 about half way through the 3rd), add the fact that they lost by a combined 59 points in the first 3 games of their NO (not as experienced or ready made finals side just yet when compared to the Lakers) series, before having their backs to the wall and winning Game 7.  And also the fact I don't think you will see Bryant playing such a bad first half game (2 points) again like he did today, thus they will get off to a good start and continue on in the 2nd half   
    Reply
    Just a quick few points I want to make mention about this weekend which IMO are very important....
     
    1.  The Hawks have a couple of 'new' players into their side due to injury and suspension to some really good play makers, and the fact that the lines makers have woken up a bit more this week regarding Melb's line....I mean they were playing interstate against a top 4 side in Adel last week and the line was at 38.5 with a near full strength Adel side, and now this week they are laying an 'extra' 10 points at 48.5 back home in Melb against another top 4 side but with a few missing in Hodge, Crawford (not as gd as he used to be I know but...), McGlynn and the fact they are debuting Kennedy plus a couple of lesser likes being named on an extended bench, and also the fact that they have made 3 forced changes which from memory I don't think has happened too many times this year.
     
    2.  Stay away from the Port Vs Syd game if you are looking at backing the Swans at the line of approx 10-11 as Mark Williams is pissed off at the suspension of Burgoyne due to what he believes was accidental head high contact...what that means is, combined with the fact that they were very easierly beaten by the Swans in Syd in Rd 2 they will be 'extra' focused this week to make amends and throw in the fact that Chad Cornes and Michael Wilson has been named only adds alot more strength to their side.  When people get pissed off they simply become 'more' competitive and put in extra time and energy into achieving more from themselves. Throw in the fact that Syd have beaten Port, Bris, West Coast & Ess, drew with Nth Melb and lost to Bulldogs, Geel & Saints (Geel will finish in top 4, but the other two I'm not sure), thus the form line isn't all that flash.  Port have beaten West Coast, Saints & Ess, two of the same sides Syd have beaten, and I know Ports wins aren't that great, but then their losses are to Geel, Adel, Hawks, Bris and Syd which looking at the above Geel, Adel & Hawks will finish in the top 4. 
     
    3.  Onto the Kangaroo's Vs Bulldogs game where the points are set at 17.5  with the Dogs as favourite...why be careful, two reasons in that the Dogs have to travel back home from the West which always makes life that much more harder the following week, and 2nd factor is that this is a 'Milestone' game for North in Brent Harvey playing his 250th which for some reason (maybe the shin boner spirt) they seem to win.  Last year Glen Archer played a Milestone game and they beat the Dogs (who were favourites), North beat Freo (at Subi) in 2005 for a Milestone game which I'm not sure who it was, but guessing I think it was Leigh Colbert.  Don't know many other games, but a good mate of mine is a Kangaroo's supporter and he always siad that they don't lose too many Milestone games.
     
    Anyway, they are just acouple of thoughts on the above games so take them as you wish and I hope the above comments help you out.  Comments are of course more than welcome.
     
    P.S. Really like the LA Lakers on Sat at the generous line of -6.5, Spurs had their chance to take home court advanatge away from the Lakers today but coughed it up(they were up by 20 about half way through the 3rd), add the fact that they lost by a combined 59 points in the first 3 games of their NO (not as experienced or ready made finals side just yet when compared to the Lakers) series, before having their backs to the wall and winning Game 7.  And also the fact I don't think you will see Bryant playing such a bad first half game (2 points) again like he did today, thus they will get off to a good start and continue on in the 2nd half   
     
    MaineRoad
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    Posted: May. 22, 2008 - 9:33 AM ET #19

    Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

    Hawks will flog Melbourne by 12+ goals.

    Brisbane will flog St.Kilda by 5+ goals.

    Sydney will cover the spread in Adelaide

     

     

    I like the use of the word "flog."  It's an under-rated verb in my opinion. 

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

    Hawks will flog Melbourne by 12+ goals.

    Brisbane will flog St.Kilda by 5+ goals.

    Sydney will cover the spread in Adelaide

     

     

    I like the use of the word "flog."  It's an under-rated verb in my opinion. 

     
    Miracle1976
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    Posted: May. 22, 2008 - 9:48 AM ET #20

    Nice the see the AFL website working well as usual
    Reply
    Nice the see the AFL website working well as usual
     
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posted: May. 22, 2008 - 10:35 AM ET #21

    Miracle, thanks for the insight.
     
    I am very close to backing the Swannies however.  A little heartoverhead in that, but I do rate the Swans as a better team and they are getting a dd headstart.  A rare combination.  Yes, I know they don't play too well in Adelaide, but the ground should suit them and Port just got back after a grueling loss to Hawthorn and could be a bit spent.  I do not like the revenge factor in here, but I think the Swans will not be complacent.
     
    Still thinking about it, but the finger is on the trigger.
    Reply
    Miracle, thanks for the insight.
     
    I am very close to backing the Swannies however.  A little heartoverhead in that, but I do rate the Swans as a better team and they are getting a dd headstart.  A rare combination.  Yes, I know they don't play too well in Adelaide, but the ground should suit them and Port just got back after a grueling loss to Hawthorn and could be a bit spent.  I do not like the revenge factor in here, but I think the Swans will not be complacent.
     
    Still thinking about it, but the finger is on the trigger.
     
    Miracle1976
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    Posted: May. 22, 2008 - 10:56 AM ET #22

    Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:

    Miracle, thanks for the insight.
     
    I am very close to backing the Swannies however.  A little heartoverhead in that, but I do rate the Swans as a better team and they are getting a dd headstart.  A rare combination.  Yes, I know they don't play too well in Adelaide, but the ground should suit them and Port just got back after a grueling loss to Hawthorn and could be a bit spent.  I do not like the revenge factor in here, but I think the Swans will not be complacent.
     
    Still thinking about it, but the finger is on the trigger.

    Don't pull the trigger, so don't say I didn't tell you.  The last time they played (in Syd) Barry Hall kicked 5.4 and this is where Port have the most trouble as they don't have 'big' defenders, but they are more suited to the smaller sides that Syd are running out with this weekend. Just my opinion..and like I have said before we are all big boys, so GL with which ever way you go

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:

    Miracle, thanks for the insight.
     
    I am very close to backing the Swannies however.  A little heartoverhead in that, but I do rate the Swans as a better team and they are getting a dd headstart.  A rare combination.  Yes, I know they don't play too well in Adelaide, but the ground should suit them and Port just got back after a grueling loss to Hawthorn and could be a bit spent.  I do not like the revenge factor in here, but I think the Swans will not be complacent.
     
    Still thinking about it, but the finger is on the trigger.

    Don't pull the trigger, so don't say I didn't tell you.  The last time they played (in Syd) Barry Hall kicked 5.4 and this is where Port have the most trouble as they don't have 'big' defenders, but they are more suited to the smaller sides that Syd are running out with this weekend. Just my opinion..and like I have said before we are all big boys, so GL with which ever way you go

     
    binomial
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    Posted: May. 22, 2008 - 6:06 PM ET #23

    A couple of points:
    Hawthorn beat Melbourne by 100 in round 1 without several players: Brown, Hodge, Lewis and Crawford maybe others.
     
    Kennealy is a big out for Sydney IMO. Bigger factor than S Burgoyne being out, especially with Cornes and Wilson back in. Thinking about Port 1-39 but haven't done much work yet.
     
    Reply
    A couple of points:
    Hawthorn beat Melbourne by 100 in round 1 without several players: Brown, Hodge, Lewis and Crawford maybe others.
     
    Kennealy is a big out for Sydney IMO. Bigger factor than S Burgoyne being out, especially with Cornes and Wilson back in. Thinking about Port 1-39 but haven't done much work yet.
     
     
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posted: May. 22, 2008 - 7:00 PM ET #24

    Quote Originally Posted by Miracle1976:

    Don't pull the trigger, so don't say I didn't tell you.  The last time they played (in Syd) Barry Hall kicked 5.4 and this is where Port have the most trouble as they don't have 'big' defenders, but they are more suited to the smaller sides that Syd are running out with this weekend. Just my opinion..and like I have said before we are all big boys, so GL with which ever way you go



    Yes, you may be very right and I may be very stubborn.    Book is offering +12.5 which is basically a lay of Port +13.

    I really don't think the handicap will matter.  Either Port wins convincingly or Sydney wins straight-up.  Of those two, I can conceive of the latter as while I can surely see Sydney losing, I cannot envision them being torn up.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Miracle1976:

    Don't pull the trigger, so don't say I didn't tell you.  The last time they played (in Syd) Barry Hall kicked 5.4 and this is where Port have the most trouble as they don't have 'big' defenders, but they are more suited to the smaller sides that Syd are running out with this weekend. Just my opinion..and like I have said before we are all big boys, so GL with which ever way you go



    Yes, you may be very right and I may be very stubborn.    Book is offering +12.5 which is basically a lay of Port +13.

    I really don't think the handicap will matter.  Either Port wins convincingly or Sydney wins straight-up.  Of those two, I can conceive of the latter as while I can surely see Sydney losing, I cannot envision them being torn up.
     
     
    tozer
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    Posted: May. 22, 2008 - 7:17 PM ET #25

    Quote Originally Posted by binomial:

    Kennealy is a big out for Sydney IMO. Bigger factor than S Burgoyne being out, especially with Cornes and Wilson back in. Thinking about Port 1-39 but haven't done much work yet.
     

    It'll be a great contest. Burgoyne was IMO was a must inclusion (in the side) for Port to cover. I may still play Port 1-39 but definately not the line anymore.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by binomial:

    Kennealy is a big out for Sydney IMO. Bigger factor than S Burgoyne being out, especially with Cornes and Wilson back in. Thinking about Port 1-39 but haven't done much work yet.
     

    It'll be a great contest. Burgoyne was IMO was a must inclusion (in the side) for Port to cover. I may still play Port 1-39 but definately not the line anymore.
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