AFL Round 3

I know its only been 2 rounds of play so far, but in terms of the Brownlow betting i can really start to hear '3 votes S Mitchell' over and over in the back of my mind....Centrebet has got him for $8 although you can pick him up for $12 at Betfair....considering how he polled last year and he must have come out the gates with at least 5 votes so far I think hes strong value at the $12....although early days

well no doubt bartel got 3 votes this week, not sure what he got round 1.

god the Geelong line is -73.5 at lasseters, going to wait for more lines to come out and have more of a think about it.  Might wait until later in the week and see how the weather is looking.

Generally I don't like to go for big lines but -73.5, I think i'd still take that.

Simon Black is my early brownlow favourite. Last year he stated at 50/1 finished equal second with Mitchell and co. Similar start to this year, will finish high currently 17/1

Melbourne +73.5

Read the following article:

https://www.realfooty.com.au/news/news/barassi-and-flower-want-bigger-effort/2008/03/31/1206850812605.html

Basically states that the mission for the Demons this weekend is not to worry about the score, but put in a better effort than the first two rounds.  That's it.  Screw the score, don't worry about it, just play hard.

Doesn't sound like the type of attitude that will stave off the Cats.

The last paragraph does it:

Flower said the club might be better off playing the competition benchmark after two defeats by an average of nearly 100 points. "If you went out and played one of the lower teams and you got beaten by another 100 points, you'd be devastated. So it can be a positive."

That does it.  Melbourne know that they are going to get shallacked and there is nothing that they can do about it except try their best.

Geelong -73.5 =

If the weather is good, someone will need to bring up some heavy advice for me not to make my biggest bet of the year on Geelong minus the points.

Who's got something?

The weather forecast for the game is fine and 22 deg, perfect weather. Saturday is fine too so the ground should be nice and firm.

Fuck me 73.5 points

I don't think even the Sydney team of 93/94 ever got odds that bad.

I'm tempted to put a dollar on it just for the shits and giggles value.

Surely the Dees couldn't lose by 100 points again could they

Just my thoughts on the Geelong/Melbourne line......

If here could be a benchmark set by the Mebourne Football club upon which they could guage the amount of effort put forward by their players and coaching staff, what would you think that benchmark could be? Could it be....ummmmm...lets see......hmmmm.....perhaps it could be the line set by the professional handicappers? What could be more motivating for the team than beating Geelong for the line? I couldnt think of anything that Melbourne would want to do more than beat that filthy line....and trust me, they might know that they wont beat Geelong, but they will be fighting tooth and nail to beat that line (and the bookies dont give frre money remember, there is the reason that is the line, set by handicappers who want to sucker you in to take the minus..) Imjma wait for the line to give me 80 then its on Melbourne.

A dollar ecoute?  Dude, if this thing is only at -73.5, it's the bargain of the century and the books are going to get hammered.  Geelong @ Geelong v. a Melbourne team that has gotten dumped twice by inferior competition by 100 each time.

The only way this doesn't beat the spread is if the Geelong players and coaches force themselves to go easy on the Dees.  Any indication that they will?  Don't think so.

Surely the players will all know about the line, but having the ability to beat that line is another thing altogether!  Do you think Geelong will just let Melbourne beat that line?  Do you think Geelong isn't talented enough to beat them at home by 74+?

Again, the only way the 73.5 isn't beaten is if Geelong let's it happen.  We need to find out some bits of information from the Cats camp as to how they are going to play this thing.

But what your saying is along the exact same lines in what im saying....do you think the bookies will let you take their money? Do you think the bookies arent proffessional enough to beat you out of your money? They dont hand out one, not one single point to the public. They are very good at what they do and very very accurate for the majority of the games they post odds for. Now believe me when i tell you that they would have spent even more time analysing this game than the regulour AFL game, due to the publics baited breath of 'free money if the lines under 75' etc etc......Round 5 2007 Geelong 222-Richmond 65.....fast forward to round 18 at Skilled Stadium Geelong 139-Richmond 69.....70 points.....does that make Richmond a better football club by 157 points when they play at Skilled Stadium? Im honestly not trying to sound like a prick, just giving you my very honest opinion on this game. If you had a gun to my head and made me pick Id pick Geelong at the minus.....but the problem is would Geelong know the gun was at my head......??

Well, I'd assume that the line for Round 18 was certainly less than 70 points and Geelong would have covered again against the Tigers.  I know the bookies aren't dumb, but here in the U.S., this game would be OFF as it is going to be tough for them to get a middle on it.

OK, take a look at this.....either the books are setting the sharpest trap I have ever seen in professional sport, or it is a clear indication of where things truly lie for the Cats/Dees destruction.

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The Cats are anywhere from 21 to 51 to win by less than 60.  That's right.21-51-to-1 to win by less than 60 points.

60+ is a very depressed 1.45.  Obviously the books see a 60+-point win coming here.

Now, if the line does indeed come out at -73.5, and the book expect a 60+-point win, then that only gives them and the Dees a 14-point margin (60-73) in which to beat out the inevitable flood of punters that will be on Geelong minus the points.  If the books can so accurately predict the final of this match, so that the final margin falls within 60-73 points, well then, I will shit my pants.

That betting market above just tips me off even more what the books expect, and what they expect is a massive Geelong victory.

Ok.......Picture if you will the crazy scenario that the Demons come out and give everything they have and they are as McCavaney would say 'so brave' and finish the first quarter level with Geelong....now thats possible, and then it turns in to only 3 quarters to get that spread......you see it all the time ( just last week in the Carlton Vs St Kild game)

We are going to need a moderator to fix the margins on this thread.  You can't read the stuff on the right since I posted that link.  Didn't know it would do that.

Shits and giggles only. Look the Cats are the team that can do it but I just hate playing these big lines. Who knows we may have last minue exclusions, it might be windy, the players might have a let down, the Dees could flood, hotdogs might be sold under $6 at Skilled............... anyhow point. Relax and enjoy the Cats put on a clinic.

AS GEELONG prepares to unveil its premiership flag on Sunday against the winless Melbourne, an Australian betting agency has made history offering unbackable odds of $1.01 for the Cats to win.

The Demons, who have been beaten by a combined total of 199 points in the first two rounds of the season, are out to $34 to knock off the premiers on their home turf by Sportsbet.com.au.

Not since 1996, when Fitzroy — in its last season — played West Coast, has a team had such long odds, but Geelong coach Mark Thompson said he expects the Demons to be competitive.

"I'm sure they won't be like that all year," he said. "They'll win a game soon."

Thompson said his players would pay the same amount of respect to the bottom-placed team as they would any other.

"Look at their line-up, they'll still play a strong line-up. Sure, they haven't played the most competitive football but you know that they'll come out of this cycle.

"If we don't give them as much respect as other teams … we're not that much better than Melbourne that we can afford to do that."

Thompson said he will keep the process leading into the match "as normal as possible" and does not believe his players will be distracted by the unveiling of the 2007 premiership flag in front of a packed Skilled Stadium crowd.

"For a couple of moments, we will enjoy … our performances of 2007, but as soon as we go back into the rooms, we'll be locked back into the game.

"I'm sure it will be a proud moment, (but) I think it is more for the fans."

Robertson might want to revise his statement, eh?  I think this is what is so wrong about it all:

"Everyone's talented enough to play in the AFL and every team is talented enough to play in the finals, it's that even and we have to go out there and believe we can beat other teams."

Obviously if he thinks that, his views on the League and the sport itself are truly misaligned.

Dees up to $34.....who the hell would be stupid enough to take that.  I wouldn't even take it at $1000.

Seriously, if the Cats can pound the Dogs by 99.......who would think they can't beat the Demons at home by 75?  What are we missing here?