Going to start an early thread, back in melbourne now. Curious what the Geelong/Melbourne line will be. Some of you can help me on this but I think the largest line in AFL in recent times has been in the high -40's-50? I think that would have been the Eagles against Hawks a few years ago perhaps. Anyway I'm looking at this game and can't see how it will not be a massive blowout. Dees lost by 100 points in each of opening two games, whereas Geelong just blew the bombers out by 99 points when everyone was saying how improved the bombers were. I'm thinking if the line is anything under 10 goals it will be worth taking this week... thoughts?
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Going to start an early thread, back in melbourne now. Curious what the Geelong/Melbourne line will be. Some of you can help me on this but I think the largest line in AFL in recent times has been in the high -40's-50? I think that would have been the Eagles against Hawks a few years ago perhaps. Anyway I'm looking at this game and can't see how it will not be a massive blowout. Dees lost by 100 points in each of opening two games, whereas Geelong just blew the bombers out by 99 points when everyone was saying how improved the bombers were. I'm thinking if the line is anything under 10 goals it will be worth taking this week... thoughts?
For the western bulldogs (potential bottom 4 candidate) to beat melbourne by 100 points and for you to say what you just said ......i reckon you go and find the round 3 clash last year between Geelong and Richmond, and think that melbourne will be 2 times shitter than Richmond were ....thats what your gonna get ....... if the line was -100 i would be taking it .....and im not shitting ya ..... Melbourne's team on paper is the worst team ive seen since fitzroy were playing ..... the only thing is will geelong take their foot off ....or will they rest players this week ?
For the western bulldogs (potential bottom 4 candidate) to beat melbourne by 100 points and for you to say what you just said ......i reckon you go and find the round 3 clash last year between Geelong and Richmond, and think that melbourne will be 2 times shitter than Richmond were ....thats what your gonna get ....... if the line was -100 i would be taking it .....and im not shitting ya ..... Melbourne's team on paper is the worst team ive seen since fitzroy were playing ..... the only thing is will geelong take their foot off ....or will they rest players this week ?
For the western bulldogs (potential bottom 4 candidate) to beat melbourne by 100 points and for you to say what you just said ......i reckon you go and find the round 3 clash last year between Geelong and Richmond, and think that melbourne will be 2 times shitter than Richmond were ....thats what your gonna get ....... if the line was -100 i would be taking it .....and im not shitting ya ..... Melbourne's team on paper is the worst team ive seen since fitzroy were playing ..... the only thing is will geelong take their foot off ....or will they rest players this week ?
I agree, Melbourne very similar to fitzroy at the moment. Geelong playing at home against this mob really should easily win by 100 again.
If you have watched Geelong in the last year or two, they don't take their foot off the pedal, especially when the Hawks are edging them out of top spot by percentage. They will not be resting players, only reason they would do that is if a player isn't 100% fit to save risking injury, as in the case with Brad Ottens.
Quote Originally Posted by TWILL:
For the western bulldogs (potential bottom 4 candidate) to beat melbourne by 100 points and for you to say what you just said ......i reckon you go and find the round 3 clash last year between Geelong and Richmond, and think that melbourne will be 2 times shitter than Richmond were ....thats what your gonna get ....... if the line was -100 i would be taking it .....and im not shitting ya ..... Melbourne's team on paper is the worst team ive seen since fitzroy were playing ..... the only thing is will geelong take their foot off ....or will they rest players this week ?
I agree, Melbourne very similar to fitzroy at the moment. Geelong playing at home against this mob really should easily win by 100 again.
If you have watched Geelong in the last year or two, they don't take their foot off the pedal, especially when the Hawks are edging them out of top spot by percentage. They will not be resting players, only reason they would do that is if a player isn't 100% fit to save risking injury, as in the case with Brad Ottens.
ok, sportstab has just released ml odds for the coming round. Geelong listed $1.03 and Melbourne $10.00... perhaps the shortest odds ever on an AFL match? I'm guessing the line comes in at around -55 to -60. Still value in my book :) I think I remember seeing $1.04 odds once on a game.
ok, sportstab has just released ml odds for the coming round. Geelong listed $1.03 and Melbourne $10.00... perhaps the shortest odds ever on an AFL match? I'm guessing the line comes in at around -55 to -60. Still value in my book :) I think I remember seeing $1.04 odds once on a game.
Geelong did take their foot off a little in the Round One match. However, if this line is 60 or under, I am all over it. I cannot see how Geelong doesn't win by 100 or so.
Geelong did take their foot off a little in the Round One match. However, if this line is 60 or under, I am all over it. I cannot see how Geelong doesn't win by 100 or so.
Geelong did take their foot off a little in the Round One match. However, if this line is 60 or under, I am all over it. I cannot see how Geelong doesn't win by 100 or so.
I agree actually, I was yelling and cursing them. They had a comfortable lead and decided to chip it around a bit and ensure the lead, but their best football is when they run and attack. I'm sure they got a blasting after the game, I was involved down at Geelong for a year and met the coaches and players, they are very dedicated to playing good football and wouldn't have liked that.
Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:
Geelong did take their foot off a little in the Round One match. However, if this line is 60 or under, I am all over it. I cannot see how Geelong doesn't win by 100 or so.
I agree actually, I was yelling and cursing them. They had a comfortable lead and decided to chip it around a bit and ensure the lead, but their best football is when they run and attack. I'm sure they got a blasting after the game, I was involved down at Geelong for a year and met the coaches and players, they are very dedicated to playing good football and wouldn't have liked that.
I'll probably be staying away from the Geelong game, sure they might or probably will cover (whatever spread) but its kind of comparable to the Boston/Miami game today (NBA). There's better value games to play.
I'm more likely to put something on Melbourne covering first quarter.
I'll probably be staying away from the Geelong game, sure they might or probably will cover (whatever spread) but its kind of comparable to the Boston/Miami game today (NBA). There's better value games to play.
I'm more likely to put something on Melbourne covering first quarter.
I'll probably be staying away from the Geelong game, sure they might or probably will cover (whatever spread) but its kind of comparable to the Boston/Miami game today (NBA). There's better value games to play.
I'm more likely to put something on Melbourne covering first quarter.
Careful, Geelong was the best first qtr team last year and will come out hard against any side. I don't think it's quite comparable to the Boston/Miami game because Boston have playoffs locked in and when it comes to the crunch they just want the win, the margin doesn't matter so they will rest players (as they did) when game is in the bag. Geelong on the other hand are playing for percentage against inferior competition and the margin does matter, especially when you have the hawks up there slightly higher at this stage due to their percentage.
Quote Originally Posted by tozer:
I'll probably be staying away from the Geelong game, sure they might or probably will cover (whatever spread) but its kind of comparable to the Boston/Miami game today (NBA). There's better value games to play.
I'm more likely to put something on Melbourne covering first quarter.
Careful, Geelong was the best first qtr team last year and will come out hard against any side. I don't think it's quite comparable to the Boston/Miami game because Boston have playoffs locked in and when it comes to the crunch they just want the win, the margin doesn't matter so they will rest players (as they did) when game is in the bag. Geelong on the other hand are playing for percentage against inferior competition and the margin does matter, especially when you have the hawks up there slightly higher at this stage due to their percentage.
So, anybody reckon what the Cats/Dees line will be? Best guesses? How's -53.5 sound?
Thing is, I don't know what kind of head-start you will have to give Melbourne to make punters thinking about not taking Geelong. Has there ever been an OFF game in AFL? Sometimes in U.S. sports when the game is so screwy, the books just take it off the board.
So, anybody reckon what the Cats/Dees line will be? Best guesses? How's -53.5 sound?
Thing is, I don't know what kind of head-start you will have to give Melbourne to make punters thinking about not taking Geelong. Has there ever been an OFF game in AFL? Sometimes in U.S. sports when the game is so screwy, the books just take it off the board.
My only real concern with Geelong is that they may look get slightly ahead of themselves and be looking at the second fav to win the GF in the Saints next week?
My only real concern with Geelong is that they may look get slightly ahead of themselves and be looking at the second fav to win the GF in the Saints next week?
So, anybody reckon what the Cats/Dees line will be? Best guesses? How's -53.5 sound?
Thing is, I don't know what kind of head-start you will have to give Melbourne to make punters thinking about not taking Geelong. Has there ever been an OFF game in AFL? Sometimes in U.S. sports when the game is so screwy, the books just take it off the board.
Good points, it will be hard to temp melbourne backers. Anything under 60 will be a gift to Cats backers I think. I don't think I've ever heard of them taking a line off the board, just increase the line more and more...
I'm guessing under -60 but close
Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:
So, anybody reckon what the Cats/Dees line will be? Best guesses? How's -53.5 sound?
Thing is, I don't know what kind of head-start you will have to give Melbourne to make punters thinking about not taking Geelong. Has there ever been an OFF game in AFL? Sometimes in U.S. sports when the game is so screwy, the books just take it off the board.
Good points, it will be hard to temp melbourne backers. Anything under 60 will be a gift to Cats backers I think. I don't think I've ever heard of them taking a line off the board, just increase the line more and more...
Whatever the line, the Dees must feel like shyte knowing they are such a huge underdog. Geez.
Are the lines released on Wednesday?
Yes usually start coming out Wednesday morning or so, depending on the books.
Was interesting seeing Melbourne have their WHOLE TEAM in the defensive half on the weekend at late stages of the game to try keep margin under 100 points, wonder if they'll try that one again.
Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:
Whatever the line, the Dees must feel like shyte knowing they are such a huge underdog. Geez.
Are the lines released on Wednesday?
Yes usually start coming out Wednesday morning or so, depending on the books.
Was interesting seeing Melbourne have their WHOLE TEAM in the defensive half on the weekend at late stages of the game to try keep margin under 100 points, wonder if they'll try that one again.
Geelong coach Mark Thompson says there will be no hint of
complacency from the Cats this week ahead of what is shaping as one of
the biggest mismatches in AFL history.
The reigning premiers, who
have won 21 of their past 22 matches including a 99-point thumping of
Essendon on Sunday, will unfurl their 2007 premiership flag at Geelong
on Sunday against a Melbourne side that has lost its first two matches
by a total of 199 points.
The Cats will enter the game as the
shortest priced favourites in AFL history at $1.03 compared to the
Demons at $10 in what will be the reigning premier's first home game of
the season.
But Thompson is not taking anything for granted
saying the Demons will be afforded the same amount of respect as any
other opposition team.
"We will go to work and review the
(Essendon) game then have the same amount of meetings and review this
week's opposition in the same depth as we always do," Thompson said
when asked what his approach will be ahead of this week's clash.
"And then we will try to play the best footy we are capable of playing."
Geelong coach Mark Thompson says there will be no hint of
complacency from the Cats this week ahead of what is shaping as one of
the biggest mismatches in AFL history.
The reigning premiers, who
have won 21 of their past 22 matches including a 99-point thumping of
Essendon on Sunday, will unfurl their 2007 premiership flag at Geelong
on Sunday against a Melbourne side that has lost its first two matches
by a total of 199 points.
The Cats will enter the game as the
shortest priced favourites in AFL history at $1.03 compared to the
Demons at $10 in what will be the reigning premier's first home game of
the season.
But Thompson is not taking anything for granted
saying the Demons will be afforded the same amount of respect as any
other opposition team.
"We will go to work and review the
(Essendon) game then have the same amount of meetings and review this
week's opposition in the same depth as we always do," Thompson said
when asked what his approach will be ahead of this week's clash.
"And then we will try to play the best footy we are capable of playing."
So are you saying they weren't really trying to score again, but at least not let the other side score too?
That means if they can get up on the Dees big, they won't let go of that lead....hmmmm.........
Well yeah I'm sure they were trying to score again but main attention looked to their defense, everything in their power to stop bulldogs scoring but it didnt work as the doggies kicked another 4 goals after that.
Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:
So are you saying they weren't really trying to score again, but at least not let the other side score too?
That means if they can get up on the Dees big, they won't let go of that lead....hmmmm.........
Well yeah I'm sure they were trying to score again but main attention looked to their defense, everything in their power to stop bulldogs scoring but it didnt work as the doggies kicked another 4 goals after that.
That's the other thing....this game will be played at Geelong.....a place where home-pitch advantage is huge.
Please someone tell me how the Dees do not suffer the shallacking of the century next round?
Is anyone else on here gearing up to pound Geelong minus whatever this weekend? I don't think I have been geeked up this much for a wagering spot in a long time...
-90.5 or so, however, would temper me a bit...hahaha...
That's the other thing....this game will be played at Geelong.....a place where home-pitch advantage is huge.
Please someone tell me how the Dees do not suffer the shallacking of the century next round?
Is anyone else on here gearing up to pound Geelong minus whatever this weekend? I don't think I have been geeked up this much for a wagering spot in a long time...
-90.5 or so, however, would temper me a bit...hahaha...
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