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AFL Round 3

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Fremantle v Hawthorn

Rarely do I play a game so early in the week but I believe the line will continue to go higher as the week goes on.

Fremantle have been dealt several blows today.

1. Fyfe ruled out by his rough conduct on Michael Rischitell for two weeks.
2. Michael Barlow injured and out for 4 weeks+
3. Defender Zac Dawson also accepted a suspension.

Hawthorn has moved from +5.5 dogs to -3.5 favourites.

I believe this line could blow out as the public begins to jump on board as well.

Hopefully this doesn't bite me in the bum, but I truly believe that they are major outs and with the Hawks regaining some premiership players, they should be able to get the points at home.

I'll be playing my first 5 unit bet of the season on Hawthorn, on the line at (-3.5)
 
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Posted: #2
looks a great bet, i think line will move and get closer to 8
 
Legend
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Posted: #3
All things being equal it was incredible the Dockers started as 5.5 favorites against the Hawks at the MCG

Mitchell and Sewell are back?
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by Luckylunchbox:

looks a great bet, i think line will move and get closer to 8


I agree! Line will be smashed over the next few days.

Exactly Rod. Bookies placing all their faith in how Freo have played their past two matches...hardly does not seem right to be giving the team that beat them, at the MCG, in the Grand Final, +5.5 points originally. I did my early week multi and got the Hawks at 1.95 at Pinnacle after Fyfe was announced...As soon as the other outs were announced, that's when I can't see any other result apart from a strong Hawks win.

Fyfe and Barlow are two of Freo's best at both ends of the ground. Dawson has also become a juggernaut in defence.... Let's see how this plays out!
 
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Posted: #5
H2H multi (weekly lotto ticket)
Hawks @ 1.952 (At pinnacle prior to all 3 Freo outs)
Tigers @ 1.332
Swans @ 1.685
Lions @ $2.31
Cats @ 1.645
Power @ 1.787

= 29.74 x (.4u)

...line multi I will do in a few days. Always love to do a multi early in the week, can often catch good lines but can obviously easily be burned by late outs etc. Still, more then often, I find early ".2u multis provide value (never my main plays).

Early main h2h leans:

**I know Gold Coast is playing well this year but traditionally they suck at the Q-Clash. Brisbane must be looking for a win and have the wood on them. Brisbane played well against both Hawthorn and Geelong.

**I'm not impressed with North Melbourne at all. I took the -20.5 last week and only had it over the line within the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarter. Port Adelaide seem like extreme value against a disjointed North Melbourne side who could barely beat an ugly bulldogs team.

**Obviously I have the value with the Hawks, and have already made a bet on that game.

**Geelong "should" beat the pies, but generally the contests are always close.

**Sydney will be searching for their first win more then Adelaide will have the skill to win it. Adelaide were woeful against a strong Port Adelaide and Sydney had their chances against a form changing Pies team. I'll go with the 2012 premiers here with some hesitation.

**Don't call me crazy, but there may be extreme value in taking Melbourne this week. Not convinced yet, and please do shoot me in the meantime, but I'll come back to this come Friday.
 
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Posted: #6
Hawks out to -4.5...and moving.

Carlton may be value against Essendon with the news of Ryder.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
liike them all so far, staying clear of sydney for now but and staying away from melbourne for at least another decade lol
 
Prospect
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Posted: #8
Freo for me - hodge Sewell and lake vs fyfe Dawson Barlow. Big outs for freo yes but hodges leadership massive for hawks as we saw last week when he left the game vs bombers.

Freo get it done tonight by 5pts.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #9
@ AFL_Capper/

Very true, but I feel the outs at Freo negate this. And after all, the G is still is the G.

As we predicted, the line for the Hawks has now moved to -8.5. Hoping everyone got it at the early price of -3.5.

Lots of value this weekend. I'll do my 2-3 plays early this week in case of late line moves again.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #10
**Early this weekend I meant :)

Sharp line moves on Saints (in from +68.5 to +58.5)
Carlton (in from +14.5 to +12.5)
Port/North, GC/BL and Sydney/Adelaide are all nearly PK's!!!

Glad I got the juice on Brisbane. Will post my line multi that I placed yesterday shortly.
 
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Posted: #11
and Hawks now in to -9.5. What a week. From +5.5 to -9.5.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by AFLGuru:

H2H multi (weekly lotto ticket)
Hawks @ 1.952 (At pinnacle prior to all 3 Freo outs)
Tigers @ 1.332
Swans @ 1.685
Lions @ $2.31
Cats @ 1.645
Power @ 1.787

= 29.74 x (.4u)

...line multi I will do in a few days. Always love to do a multi early in the week, can often catch good lines but can obviously easily be burned by late outs etc. Still, more then often, I find early ".2u multis provide value (never my main plays).

Early main h2h leans:

**I know Gold Coast is playing well this year but traditionally they suck at the Q-Clash. Brisbane must be looking for a win and have the wood on them. Brisbane played well against both Hawthorn and Geelong.

**I'm not impressed with North Melbourne at all. I took the -20.5 last week and only had it over the line within the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarter. Port Adelaide seem like extreme value against a disjointed North Melbourne side who could barely beat an ugly bulldogs team.

**Obviously I have the value with the Hawks, and have already made a bet on that game.

**Geelong "should" beat the pies, but generally the contests are always close.

**Sydney will be searching for their first win more then Adelaide will have the skill to win it. Adelaide were woeful against a strong Port Adelaide and Sydney had their chances against a form changing Pies team. I'll go with the 2012 premiers here with some hesitation.

**Don't call me crazy, but there may be extreme value in taking Melbourne this week. Not convinced yet, and please do shoot me in the meantime, but I'll come back to this come Friday.

Only things that I am wary about with this multi now is Sydney.

Brisbane has come right in. Will show my multi soon, got some excellent lines yesterday before the money came in.

Will be playing:

Hawks tonight obviously (at -3.5) 5 units from earlier in the week

And considering:

Brisbane ML
Geelong -8.5

But will lock these in tomorrow morning

 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
Here are my multis for the week. I know they contradict each other, but method to my madness. A of of good value there too. Thats why there are a few mixes. I am hoping that I get through the first few so I can trade out the last legs.

See what happens!

Parlay #3 was trying to take advantage of lines I knew would change.

https://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img822/4872/kl2t.png


 
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Posted: #14
McEvoy out for the Hawks. Freo +8.5 getting smashed and Hawks blowing out from 1.62 to 1.70....Shiiiiittt.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #15
Hawks not firm at 1.76 and line moved back to -6.5......Going to be an interesting game lads. Lock down the hatches! 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #16
Yeah we are looking good. Lol
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by AFLGuru:


I'll be playing my first 5 unit bet of the season on Hawthorn, on the line at (-3.5)

Wahooooo! Read this one right. Didn't need to worry about the line moves at the end or the injuries.

5 units cashes and gets all of my multis off to a good start 

Ross Lyon must be fuming. Hard game to predict with so many squad changes happening though, threw everyone off.

Back tomorrow :)
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Manila_Playa87:

Didn't play it since I've been destroyed on the punt recently and opted for the Brumbies instead.

Hope it turns around mate this weekend for ya.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #19
(11-5 +12u)
 
Prospect
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Posted: #20
As all my multis are currently in play thanks to the Hawks starting them off al nicely (my main banker, along with geelong), I am only making one play for today.

Gold Coast v Brisbane

I'm not biting in to the hype around GCS suns. WHAT? You say? Yes, they are an exciting young team and they will do well, but Brisbane matches up with them exceptionally well.

Brisbane has a strong mental edge over GCS with the Q-Clash and I don't expect that GCS will be able to revenge these...yet.

The mid-field of Brisbane I believe is a class above GCS as well. Ablett is a machine and I love him, but I believe he will be tagged successfully today (maybe to below 35 disposals! Lol).

I'll be playing on Brisbane on the line (+5.5) for 1.5u

I also like Geelong tonight but all the lines have been blown out and away this week and as I have them as my other main banker in my active multis, I won't be making a single play on them.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by AFLGuru:



I'll be playing on Brisbane on the line (+5.5) for 1.5u



Wow. I think the Demons have a chance against Brisbane. Absolutely smoked.

Thankfully I dont have them in my third multi.

Still no play for other games tonight. In my multi I have the Saints +62.5 and Cats -8.5

Back tomorrow though for more plays.

(11-6 +10.5u)
 
Prospect
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by AFLGuru:

Here are my multis for the week. I know they contradict each other, but method to my madness. A of of good value there too. Thats why there are a few mixes. I am hoping that I get through the first few so I can trade out the last legs.

See what happens!

Parlay #3 was trying to take advantage of lines I knew would change.

https://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img822/4872/kl2t.png




And Parlay #3 is just about a winner.

As you can see, I had Hawks ML, Bulldogs +18.5, St Kilda +62.5, Cats -8.5 and last leg is Blues +14.5.

Can trade out and will check my options tomorrow morning =)

Multi payout = 20.46
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by Manila_Playa87:


The worst possible scenario happened for me today. Took richmond live, then figuring it was gonna lose managed to get Doghies -5.5 before the flood gates opened. Thought I was safe since the tigers aren't notorious for reeling in big deficits. There is no worse feeling in gambling than being middled.

What do you think you'll do with your last leg? I used to do a lot of AFL/NRL multis last year.


Hey Manila,

That sucks man. Either team had chances at covering both. Tough luck mate. Hope it turns around soon.

I traded out last night. Essendon were -11.5 at Pinnacle, so I have 3 points to work with to win both bets as well with a middle but either way, I have a profit.

Playing today:

North Melbourne H2H for 1 unit for today. I have changed my mind with regards to Port.
 
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Posted: #24
why did you buy out of Carlton? 
 
 
Prospect
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Posts: 142
Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by Enjoi:

why did you buy out of Carlton? 


Traded out of Carlton at Essendon -11.5 for guaranteed win. Glad I did!

So multi ended up paying 14.87 :)
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