AFL Rd 4 - Discussion

I'll probably be on the bulldogs as well, have to look more into. 
Will add some more comments later.

Hey quietly, tipped 8/8 winners last week :)

I tipped 7/8...and you can guess who stuffed that up for me..Saints!

I tipped doggies by 1 point.  Only reason I tipped doggies was because I had them +16.5 with the line so I couldn't tip the saints and cheer against them could I ?

this round looks pretty straight forward .... but there is nearly always 1-2 underdogs winning every week ...... this week i like carlton + the points ....went to the game last year between these teams .....and there wasnt much between them ..... i think carlton will give collingwood a run for their money this week ......i took the carlton+ points/over last year and they able to do both ....plus when was the last time carlton gave less than 100 points away .....2 seasons ago ?

Depends what the line will be.

I don't think it will be 'straight forward' round.  Always need to tread carefully.

Carlton have lost 3 line bets in arow ..... is this the week they get one up?

I certainly wont be backing them...
They've lost what 15 games in a row?  I don't care if they have judd, they still make too many errors and collingwood is one of the best pressure teams and will force their mistakes.

I think there will be a lot of value in the lines this round.  Melbourne kept it close against Geelong and that should give the Saints less points.

West Coast is a bit garbage at the moment and if I can pick up the Swannies without paying too big of a head-start, they look pretty good as well.

Nothing certain yet though...

Western Bulldogs might look a sharp bet as well.....nothing yet however...

A couple of points to take note of from this season so far that will change how I'm betting from round 4 onwards... (even though I had a disappointing week last week, 2 wins, 3 losses).

2007 was a year with many dogs getting up, with the rise the fall of a few teams. 2008 is looking a lot more steady and predictable. Last round (except for 2 final results) played out eerily similar to 2007 rivalry round.

I was planning on playing small, from rounds 1-6, then increasing my bets from that point. Due to how the season has played out so far, I am increasing my bets to up to 7 units from this week. I am very confident were I see everybody sitting this year (prior to injuries/suspensions taking their toll).

The Bulldogs are only -7?   Very tempting, esp. since they play the Telstra Dome very, very well.

Norths at the MCG should be good for 30+ more than Melbourne can handle.  If the line is only -24.5, then it is true what I said about the closeness of the Geelong game giving us a lower negative start.

Nothing is for certain yet, but those are two strong leans...  I am glad you also agree tozer...

Swans also at -24.5 against the Eagles....hmmmm....this one is definitely tougher to call and I think the books have been getting right stuffed on Sydney backers for the season.  This might be a play of over-giving points in order to stuff the Sydney backers for a round and get back to it.

Any thoughts about this game?

Sorry everyone...said I'd drop back in with the lines when they were avaliable, and considering they can out earlier today it's fair to say I'm late!  Anyway, here are the lines from Sportingbet as at 11.30 pm on Wed night:

Ess Vs WB -8.5

StK Vs Geel -24.5

Kang -22.5 Vs Melb

Syd -24.5 Vs West Coast

Port Adel -14.5 Vs Bris

Haw -15.5 Vs Adel

Carl Vs Coll -24.5

Freo -35.5 Vs Rich

I still think the Bulldogs line looks too good to be true...maybe a trap. Really like the Syd line with Priddis out this week and Cox struggling at the moment to come up, and also think Freo have a chance to get themselves back into finals talk with about a 10 goal win over Rich.

Anymore thoughts, or stats for that matter, please don't hesitate to make them here. 

Swans/WC is always an eerily close affair, however I just think this season the Eagles have lost their luster and the Swannies, much like their NRL counterpart, are much better than people gave them credit for at the beginning of the season.  I have been riding the Roosters/Swans bandwagon on the sleeping books......but now I fear they might have caught up, on the Swans at least.

Still have to look into it.

Bulldogs do look too good to be true.  Plus, they play very well at Telstra.  Bombers are over-rated, IMO, and the opening-round win over Norths will have distorted their betting lines.

Geelong is worth looking into.  St. Kilda does not nearly have the work rate that the Cats do (who does?) and plays a style of football that gets hit hard and early by offensively-based teams.  Carlton was just not fit nor experienced enough to close the door.  Geelong might also get up big early and not look back.

Roos look to be a great value bet, as mentioned before, since the Cats loss will have surely overinflated Melbourne's abilities.  Roos play well at the MCG as well.

Hawks/Crows...will have to look into this one further.  Value could be on Adelaide here...

No interest yet in the Carlton/Collingwood mash-up.

The dockers should be able to take Richmond to bits, but since it is the late game of the round, I haven't much looked into it yet.

A ML parlay on Roos/Cats/Swans/Dockers is paying 2.39 at my local.  Looks to be a very nice bet, though surely you can get better value...

What do you guys think about it?

ecoute, what do you think about the Swans/WC match?

Port/Brisbane
Brisbane may have Ash McGrath back which will give them their best possible forward line. Port's defence has been its weakness this season and the lions could get a couple of matchups heavily in their favour.

Matthew Lloyd is out, get on the dogs!!!