Posted:
#1
Opening the round normally this week – feels like a normal week. I learned from last week that, even if I don’t have a feel for any of the games earlier in the week, it’s better to put thoughts down on paper then. Let them marinate for a few days. In any case, I do have some plays that I really like.
Games I really like:
Sydney v. GC Swans are keyed-up again now that finals approach and are keen to secure a top four spot. At the SCG, where the Swans always do well early when they want to. Will definitely play the 1Q and 1H lines heavy (esp 1H). Will have a look at the Under here.
Geelong v. Adelaide Crows are on a tear and don’t think they relent here. Motivation is there to secure a home prelim finals (or however you call the first playoff game), and they’re playing for something more than that. Cats will be dialled in to repent for last week, and likely do well in 1Q, potentially in 2Q. But I see value in laying just over two goals.
Melbourne v. GWS Staying with Freo gave this club a big boost of confidence in my opinion. They’ll bring more to the pitch than they have in some time. At home, last game, they should cover this line against a poor offensive team away from home coming down of a huge win. Dees +17.5. Might sprinkle a little on ML, too.
Games I like:
Brisbane v. WB I view the Doggies in a similar light to the Crows. Loads of talent (though less experience than Crows), high degree of motivation, fearless, move the ball incredibly well, and are lightning fast. I see them winning this by 50+.
Richmond v. NM I think the Tigers really get up for this game (given it’s a single digit line), and think the Roos just don’t have the talent and ability (especially in the clearances). The Roos will come out fighting though, and game may be a bit slow early on. Think the line has value at -7.5 The Over could be interesting, being at Ethihad and I don’t think the Tiges will have the same rigorous defensive pressure throughout the match. On the flip-side, though not as talented, the Roos will be motivated, too. The model has the Roos as the play, so will be curious to hear others’ views on this one especially.
Other matches:
Hawthorn v. Carlton Laying 75.5 points against the Blues? Don’t see how they can’t clear it, especially with Hodges back. At the same time, just not comfortable laying that many (lost my -82.5 3x play last week)
WCE v. STK I don’t trust the Eagles’ at current staffing to lay that many points against the Saints. They’ll be fired up, and probably deliver a performance in the same direction as the Swans (but without the same number of offensive weapons at the moment, deliver fewer points).
Erich
Games I really like:
Sydney v. GC Swans are keyed-up again now that finals approach and are keen to secure a top four spot. At the SCG, where the Swans always do well early when they want to. Will definitely play the 1Q and 1H lines heavy (esp 1H). Will have a look at the Under here.
Geelong v. Adelaide Crows are on a tear and don’t think they relent here. Motivation is there to secure a home prelim finals (or however you call the first playoff game), and they’re playing for something more than that. Cats will be dialled in to repent for last week, and likely do well in 1Q, potentially in 2Q. But I see value in laying just over two goals.
Melbourne v. GWS Staying with Freo gave this club a big boost of confidence in my opinion. They’ll bring more to the pitch than they have in some time. At home, last game, they should cover this line against a poor offensive team away from home coming down of a huge win. Dees +17.5. Might sprinkle a little on ML, too.
Games I like:
Brisbane v. WB I view the Doggies in a similar light to the Crows. Loads of talent (though less experience than Crows), high degree of motivation, fearless, move the ball incredibly well, and are lightning fast. I see them winning this by 50+.
Richmond v. NM I think the Tigers really get up for this game (given it’s a single digit line), and think the Roos just don’t have the talent and ability (especially in the clearances). The Roos will come out fighting though, and game may be a bit slow early on. Think the line has value at -7.5 The Over could be interesting, being at Ethihad and I don’t think the Tiges will have the same rigorous defensive pressure throughout the match. On the flip-side, though not as talented, the Roos will be motivated, too. The model has the Roos as the play, so will be curious to hear others’ views on this one especially.
Other matches:
Hawthorn v. Carlton Laying 75.5 points against the Blues? Don’t see how they can’t clear it, especially with Hodges back. At the same time, just not comfortable laying that many (lost my -82.5 3x play last week)
WCE v. STK I don’t trust the Eagles’ at current staffing to lay that many points against the Saints. They’ll be fired up, and probably deliver a performance in the same direction as the Swans (but without the same number of offensive weapons at the moment, deliver fewer points).
Erich
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