AFL Rd 21

Exciting round, especially the first and last match on Sunday, wow!  It’s surely me, but it feels like there is more excitement this year than last, coming into the finals season.

Despite my poor performance last week on pre-game bets, I’ll stay with the format for this round kick-off note.  A lot more effort goes into the ones on Saturday and Sunday morning, though with mixed results.  The “view” developed for those days helps the live plays.

Matches I Love

Hawks line, at -42.5 v. Port, at Ethihad.  A bit risky and little “value”, but I don’t see how Hawks win by less than 60.  Port is the anti-Hawks, and that spells one outcome for me: smacked, hard.  Furthermore, Port beat them earlier this season, so a bit of revenge factor.  Finally, Power realise they need to be more physical.   My $ says they’ll be more intimidated here; and if they aren’t they score rather than prevent scoring.  Over 194.5, as well.

Pies +14.5 and the Over.  Pies have competed with the best (within a few goals), and will be looking to redeem themselves for letting Swans get away from them on some awful kicking.  Tigers can win this by 4 goals, and it’s no secret I doubt their determination.  I feel like the Pies get up for this match, the Tiges not as much, and the Pies keep it competitive.  Another rematch, favouring the closer margin IMO.  Tempted on the Over. 

I Like

Over in Eagles v. Doggies.  These run-and-gunners are going to hit close to 200. 

Eagles the line.  Despite injury upon injury over the weeks and months, they dominate at home.  Freo the latest scalp.  Granted, Freo’s offense is worse anywhere than Doggies’ at Ethihad… but Doggies haven’t played a true opponent away in over six rounds.  4 goals+ feels about right.

Suns -16.5 at home vs. Bombers.  With Hird quitting and Suns’ injuries, won’t make a play here.  Too many uncertainties.  

Saints/Cats over 178.5.  Ethihad.  Two determined teams, both with offensive weapons.  Prime candidate to graduate to "love" category.

Roos/Dockers over 168.5, just a gut feel.  Roos can score, no doubt.  Dockers have on occasion.  I think they do here as it’s such a focus area now for the Dockers.

GWS +19.5.  Buddy in/out (think he’ll be out)… whatever:  when the Swans’ coach is saying in the presso that he’s proud of his team pulling out the win last Friday, it’s clear the club does not have a culture of winning/fighting any longer (if they ever have – I haven’t seen it consistently past 3 years, in person).  It was the freaking Pies, at home, after an embarrassing loss that Swans’ couldn’t get up for.  Giants fight, and I might go to the match and root for them. 

Blues +13.5.  Actually, this is pure hunch.  Think Blues have more fight In them than Dees; look no further than Roosey excusing his players. 

More later Gents - Erich

With line moving out again to 46.5, making first play:

Hawks -10.5 QT line.

Power crushed them 1st Q last time, so this will get ugly fast.

Hawks1-39 is pretty juicy at 2.80

Richmond has generally been an unders team this year but I think the collingwood richmond match goes over 163.5

Swans h2h is a gimme, they are fighting for that top 4 spot at the moment. I'll never forget though when GWS beat them in round 1 last year. But it's different now.

Will not touch the suns vs bombers game.

Crows haven't secured the top 8 spot yet and should beat the lions by 40+ and should cover the -43.5 at home.

Not touching the north freo game either.

Carlton vs Melbourne is a tough one to pick, Melbourne as a 1.44 favourite is too low but at the same time just can't back Carlton. No bet.

Eagles vs Bulldogs. One to watch, both teams are well and truly exceeding expectations. Eagles at home, still need to keep winning as the home final in week 1 is not sured up yet. A -17.5 line is low enough to take on this game. Three goal win is easily done. Or the 1.38 h2h multi booster is good value too. It's 2nd vs 4th but the doggies have had a very easy draw. Time to put them in there place.

Geelong h2h for a multi is also good. Opened at 1.40 is now 1.30

Good stuff. Agree with most of it, except Swans. Not a gimme h2h, and I'll like put 100 on Giants. Very likely, yes... gimme? Not even close. Swans know they won't be at Premiership, and are secretly relieved they won't have to get embarrassed by Hawks again. Top 4, 8, if finish was that important, they would have been playing much better.

Swans have often been playing undermanned and could be in a much better position but I do agree with you that they wont be winning or making the grand final. They are however a much better chance than the doggies provided they steal that 4th spot, anything can happen. Out of the current top 3 will be the grand finalists this year with richmond and sydney the smokeys

True dat

Thx guys.  Very good infors.. I will keep on eye.  

For your parlays?

Lol!!!!

i got lot rugby for my parlays this week isport.  but still i  others.

Swans have moved from 1.37 to 1.52, all on the back of no Franklin?

All good Target, you're a funny guy...

I don't think it's all Buddy, but that the Swans aren't playing that well/hard and Giants at home with a first finals on the line.

Hawks out to 51.5 now and 200.5. Might have to play the Under.

Under looks pretty good, I wont play the total though. Port put up a big score last week and Hawks generally score over 100 most games. It's a pretty sharp line set by the bookies. Going by averages i think its 199 points for per game combined. Shulz is back for more scoring power for port.

Coincidentally, the line has landed spot on with the model i get. But model's total is 15 pts lower... think it's going to be physical.

Shite, forgot it was / is at Ethihad... have to honor the Peekay rule and not bet the under there...

Forgot or omitted is at Ethihad... sticking to Peekays rule and not playing Under there.

Forgot that it's at Ethihad, so have to stay with Peekays advice on never playing Unders there... hmmm

Test

User error / phone cache issue, sorry guys... may have to look at Port under then, at 74.5

Test

Sorry, let me correct that these two plays don't accomplish a goal relative to the Total, lol... I've effectively played the handicap with one important caveat:  300 on Hawks over and 200 on Port under. 

Also doubled-down on the 1Q line, which is now at -12.5 at 365 (-11.5 at SB). 

BOL tonight if you make plays. 

Like the 1st quarter play

Adding a play to (hopefully) help hedge my Port game under:

Port 1Q Under 17.5.

No more pre game plays.