Swans/Essendon Under 178.5 looks a banker. Essendon is pegged around 55-60. Unless the Swans blow a nut, this looks good.
Bulldogs/Crows Under 185.5 as well. Remember what we said last week about the books over-estimating the Dogs' attacking prowess and under-estimating their defensive lock-down ability. Adelaide isn't particularly a fast-track team so this should stay well under.
GWS -23.5 over Fremantle.
Just early thoughts. Best bet looks the Dogs Under.
Good luck this round, Erich!
One-million on Hawthorn ML over Richmond! Hahaha!
Swans/Essendon Under 178.5 looks a banker. Essendon is pegged around 55-60. Unless the Swans blow a nut, this looks good.
Bulldogs/Crows Under 185.5 as well. Remember what we said last week about the books over-estimating the Dogs' attacking prowess and under-estimating their defensive lock-down ability. Adelaide isn't particularly a fast-track team so this should stay well under.
GWS -23.5 over Fremantle.
Just early thoughts. Best bet looks the Dogs Under.
Thanks buddy, you too. Look forward to chatting more as the round progresses.
Thought about that same under based on your mentioning last week. I will likely join you on that one.
Was a bit nervous on my Freo pick, so can see why you'd take GWS. Giants are simply on fire. Staying with mine for now as I don't think the line moves out further.
That Swans under does actually look really good, will look more closely at the numbers.
Hawks ML paying 1.10... I wouldn't risk it haha... Tiges might bring knives to this match they're so desperate, haha
Thanks buddy, you too. Look forward to chatting more as the round progresses.
Thought about that same under based on your mentioning last week. I will likely join you on that one.
Was a bit nervous on my Freo pick, so can see why you'd take GWS. Giants are simply on fire. Staying with mine for now as I don't think the line moves out further.
That Swans under does actually look really good, will look more closely at the numbers.
Hawks ML paying 1.10... I wouldn't risk it haha... Tiges might bring knives to this match they're so desperate, haha
Given the highest they've hit there is 183 with an average far lower than that, what is there to shy from? Can always lose of course, but what makes this match different?
Given the highest they've hit there is 183 with an average far lower than that, what is there to shy from? Can always lose of course, but what makes this match different?
Just like last round's Doggies/Roos match-up at 196.5/198.5. That was a joke and didn't even hit 100 points. Dogs' outs or not, opponent's firepower or not. That match all but confirmed these matches are being over-lined.
Now that I've said that, watch a 125-111 scoreline this round.
Quote Originally Posted by peekay89:
Dogs/Crows Under 186.5 - good luck with that one.
Best bet of the round, I reckon.
Just like last round's Doggies/Roos match-up at 196.5/198.5. That was a joke and didn't even hit 100 points. Dogs' outs or not, opponent's firepower or not. That match all but confirmed these matches are being over-lined.
Now that I've said that, watch a 125-111 scoreline this round.
I'm switching my bet on the Dogs/Crows match to Over 186.5.
I know all the numbers for Dogs at Ethihad suggest the Under, with all but one match there sub 140 I believe (could be 150, don't have my comp handy).
That the line hasn't changed is telling. It's going to "pop", and I can see the mechanism as Crows will get close to 100, and Dogs will be scoring a heck of a lot more in transition.
I'm switching my bet on the Dogs/Crows match to Over 186.5.
I know all the numbers for Dogs at Ethihad suggest the Under, with all but one match there sub 140 I believe (could be 150, don't have my comp handy).
That the line hasn't changed is telling. It's going to "pop", and I can see the mechanism as Crows will get close to 100, and Dogs will be scoring a heck of a lot more in transition.
I'm switching my bet on the Dogs/Crows match to Over 186.5.
I know all the numbers for Dogs at Ethihad suggest the Under, with all but one match there sub 140 I believe (could be 150, don't have my comp handy).
That the line hasn't changed is telling. It's going to "pop", and I can see the mechanism as Crows will get close to 100, and Dogs will be scoring a heck of a lot more in transition.
Good luck, Erich!
I am still kicking myself for not getting on the Dogs Under last week against the Roos. I got scared off. Not going to happen this time.
Win or lose, I have to take the Under here.
Quote Originally Posted by Erich777:
I'm switching my bet on the Dogs/Crows match to Over 186.5.
I know all the numbers for Dogs at Ethihad suggest the Under, with all but one match there sub 140 I believe (could be 150, don't have my comp handy).
That the line hasn't changed is telling. It's going to "pop", and I can see the mechanism as Crows will get close to 100, and Dogs will be scoring a heck of a lot more in transition.
Good luck, Erich!
I am still kicking myself for not getting on the Dogs Under last week against the Roos. I got scared off. Not going to happen this time.
On to today's matches. STK +23.5, Total up to 202.5 @ Ethihad Both teams playing with confidence, North with better and deeper talent. This line is too high, IMO. The teams North has beaten by that margin this year: Brisbane, Gold Coast and Freo. They only beat Melbourne by 5, and we know how the Saints played them last week. The Saints meanwhile have lost 3 times by worse than that, Rd 1 at Port, Rd 2 WB, and Rd 4 GWS, the latter two being the best teams in the comp (along with NM, though I reckon the Giants, Dogs, Crows would all beat the Roos at the moment). The other loss was by 3 points to the Hawks. Also, that performance against the Hawks was preceded by a 29 point win against the Pies. This tells me that they carry momentum (of course, it's one data point this season). North gets off to great starts, having won the past four by 12 or more (36 was the highest, 18 the second). Saints have lost the past 3 by 11 or more. Ethihad has been it's usual offensively friendly stadium - except when the Dogs played there in the first 6 rounds. I bet correctly that would change last night. I'm counting on the roof being closed (will cash out if it isn't). But no other game has gone under 202 that the Dogs didn't play in. Plays: NM -5.5 1Q / STK +23.5 / Over 202.5
Port v. Brisbane: Line 17.5 ./ Total 186.5 I'm still torn on this game. Bris smarting after having the last game stolen from them by Swans at home. How do they respond? I don't know the team well enough. Past two rounds have seen good play, even with the 55 point loss against WB. Port, get Wyngard back, and this line is still well below the inflated 27.5 open. Port also a good 1Q team, Lions not so much. Port has won 3 of last 4, and Lions not even close away games. Plays: Port -17.5 / Port 1Q -5.5
Good luck today gents... if you know the roof is open at Ethihad, PLEASE advise. :)
Erich
On to today's matches. STK +23.5, Total up to 202.5 @ Ethihad Both teams playing with confidence, North with better and deeper talent. This line is too high, IMO. The teams North has beaten by that margin this year: Brisbane, Gold Coast and Freo. They only beat Melbourne by 5, and we know how the Saints played them last week. The Saints meanwhile have lost 3 times by worse than that, Rd 1 at Port, Rd 2 WB, and Rd 4 GWS, the latter two being the best teams in the comp (along with NM, though I reckon the Giants, Dogs, Crows would all beat the Roos at the moment). The other loss was by 3 points to the Hawks. Also, that performance against the Hawks was preceded by a 29 point win against the Pies. This tells me that they carry momentum (of course, it's one data point this season). North gets off to great starts, having won the past four by 12 or more (36 was the highest, 18 the second). Saints have lost the past 3 by 11 or more. Ethihad has been it's usual offensively friendly stadium - except when the Dogs played there in the first 6 rounds. I bet correctly that would change last night. I'm counting on the roof being closed (will cash out if it isn't). But no other game has gone under 202 that the Dogs didn't play in. Plays: NM -5.5 1Q / STK +23.5 / Over 202.5
Port v. Brisbane: Line 17.5 ./ Total 186.5 I'm still torn on this game. Bris smarting after having the last game stolen from them by Swans at home. How do they respond? I don't know the team well enough. Past two rounds have seen good play, even with the 55 point loss against WB. Port, get Wyngard back, and this line is still well below the inflated 27.5 open. Port also a good 1Q team, Lions not so much. Port has won 3 of last 4, and Lions not even close away games. Plays: Port -17.5 / Port 1Q -5.5
Good luck today gents... if you know the roof is open at Ethihad, PLEASE advise. :)
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