AFL - RD 10

Record end of round.

Swans v Roos Under 178.5

BOL

Like the Melbourne/Port Over 191.5 and the Saints/Dockers Under 179.5 for tonight.

Also a small pisstake bet on the Lions ML against Hawthorn.  Something smells here.  Wish I got on the early line of 50.5.  Value is gone now.

Also leaning the Under 201.5 for Hawthorn/Carlton.

Here's hoping Freo doesn't kick 70 or more or my Unders on that game will implode.

And as I type that, Hawthorn/Carlton goes out to 204.5.  Definitely liking the Unders now.

Disclaimer:  Purely a opposites bet as both of these sides and the Gabba have been extremely Overs friendly.  I'm banking on the Lions no longer playing the G as well as they did earlier in the season and Hawthorn wanting to continue their dominance in limiting oppostion I50's.  And we know the Lions can't kick for much of nothing unless they are getting right in front of the sticks.

Wow!  More strange line movements.  Going to change up my picks to match.  Final card for tonight:

Brisbane/Carlton UNDER 204.5
Melbourne/Port Adelaide OVER 191.5
St. Kilda/Fremantle OVER 178.5

A lot of plays on the Saints/Freo Over coming in all week but that line keeps dropping.  I wonder if they will be playing with the roof open?  Somebody knows something so I will back the Overs in that one.  Hopefully I can hit two of three....

Good luck man, today's totals aren't doing anything for me. May change my mind later... Did take the lions +53.5 early in the week but won't count that here. Didn't feel like posting early in week. Do have Criws -1.5, and will play Dees with points, prolly Saints too. More soon.

Like Adelaide and St. Kilda.

I think Port is the play though.  Dees the better team, people finally having confidence in backing them now, and they are getting 5.5?

Hmmmm....

I'd play Port or just stay off.  Seems too good to be true, like GWS at Evens.

I'm going to hedge the Dees bet a little with the 1H line, but I may lose both haha. Giants line makes sense to me: better team right now, and Cats rolled the Crows in Adelaide. Crows aren't infallible there. I'm playing them, but a small bet.

Today's plays:
Dees 1H +2.5
Dees +5.5
Dees/Power 197.5

Saints -22.5
Tiges 1H -16.5

Good luck!

Tough round for sure!

As I said beforehand, I really do think it will be a dog round and it has been almost all favorites the past two rounds.

We shall see!

Brisbane/Hawthorn up to 206.5 now. 

Adding Lions +48.5

Lions only 4 down at the Half! 

I've got the Saints at 113 points for this match.  Can the Dockers get me 66 points?

I watched the Saints/Bombers last round because I'm a certified masochist and Essendon was able to consistently put together some solid end-to-end play against them.  Freo is very similar is the statistical categories so I am assuming the free-flowing ground of Etihad will allow for this combined with Freo being poorer at defence than Essendon will allow for the Over.

While -22.5 looks value, it does seem a little low, no?  That I assume means Freo will fire somewhat this round getting the Over.

What a cement wall of a round!   

And to note, these plays are for action-only, not bankers or big plays as I don't really see anything to go mad on this round.

It's Friday night here in Michigan and Memorial Day weekend, so I'm just looking for a good time, booze, and a nice footy game.  What more could you ask for?

 

Should have taken note of your Port comment, especially since I know better, haha!

Hope your Lions play comes in...

NBA tomorrow OKC -2.5 going large!

Line Trends

146 points at three quarter time. 

Yep.  OKC has to win tomorrow as they will not win at Oracle in a Game Seven.

Well, it's not over yet, but it shall soon be Over with Brisbane and Hawthorn.



Nice three goals in 1:14 to start the quarter. 

Still smelling something wrong with the Saints/Dockers total.  It was set to pull you Under and is now almost an irresistible Under.

And why is Saints just -22.5 if Freo is last in Inside 50s and have an injury list the size of a marathon start?

OK, added another two units to the Saints/Dockers Over.  What the hell?

As far as sides go, Adelaide has to be the best remaining pick.  Very similar to the Port/Melbourne line.  Better team not favored.  Too fishy.

Are you American?? Living in the States?

Won my Lions bet by the hook, haha!

Let's go Saints! Agree line seemed a bit low, but not fishy like the Power one IMO

BTW, disagree with you on Crows being better team. They just have a massive home adv. I was going to play Crows, but I think Giants have a good enough chance to win that I'm gonna pass and just enjoy. I got burned by the Crows at home v Cats... Giants beat the Cats...

Do you get these stats from a service?

Mate, isn't your play on the Over the opposite your call on the Port line?? As in, line moving such that the "obvious" play is the one NOT to play?