7's most cappers use systems that entail nothing more than guessing and half baked "systems". You're a rare breed. A man who has a real method in all of this madness! Skoal to you!
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7's most cappers use systems that entail nothing more than guessing and half baked "systems". You're a rare breed. A man who has a real method in all of this madness! Skoal to you!
CAPITALS 1ST PERIOD ML @-115, FOR 1.15 UNITS TO WIN 1 UNIT
I just registered to say thank you for your picks. Been following you for couple of days with great success !
As I understand your 1st period pick, if it's a tie, you push. If it's the case, would it be better to play the 1st period 3way ?
Exemple for Washington in my book: +200 for a 1st period win and +160 for a 1st period draw. Take approximately 60% of what you would have bet on the -115 line on the 1st period win and the other 40% on the draw.
Let's say 1 unit = $100 so, for your bet, you would have bet $115 to win $100.
60% of $115 = $69 at +200 = $138
40% of $115 = $46 at +160 = $73.6
If it's a 1st period win, you win more than one unit and if it's a draw, you recover your bet and a little bit more. Am I missing something ?
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Quote Originally Posted by 7NoLuckNeeded7:
CAPITALS 1ST PERIOD ML @-115, FOR 1.15 UNITS TO WIN 1 UNIT
I just registered to say thank you for your picks. Been following you for couple of days with great success !
As I understand your 1st period pick, if it's a tie, you push. If it's the case, would it be better to play the 1st period 3way ?
Exemple for Washington in my book: +200 for a 1st period win and +160 for a 1st period draw. Take approximately 60% of what you would have bet on the -115 line on the 1st period win and the other 40% on the draw.
Let's say 1 unit = $100 so, for your bet, you would have bet $115 to win $100.
60% of $115 = $69 at +200 = $138
40% of $115 = $46 at +160 = $73.6
If it's a 1st period win, you win more than one unit and if it's a draw, you recover your bet and a little bit more. Am I missing something ?
7's most cappers use systems that entail nothing more than guessing and half baked "systems". You're a rare breed. A man who has a real method in all of this madness! Skoal to you!
Thanks buddy, I do appreciate your words of kindness. Admittedly, it never fails to floor me that so many 'fall' for the old 'system' thing. What people don't seem to realize is that the Books/Lines are run/set by some very, very smart people--I know quite a few of them, take my word for it that there is not a stupid one among them. ANY 'system' that is beating the Book, they will move lines, change formats, set limits, or whatever they have to do to counter it. Anyway, off my 'soapbox' lol.... have a great evening my friend!
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Quote Originally Posted by whicks25:
7's most cappers use systems that entail nothing more than guessing and half baked "systems". You're a rare breed. A man who has a real method in all of this madness! Skoal to you!
Thanks buddy, I do appreciate your words of kindness. Admittedly, it never fails to floor me that so many 'fall' for the old 'system' thing. What people don't seem to realize is that the Books/Lines are run/set by some very, very smart people--I know quite a few of them, take my word for it that there is not a stupid one among them. ANY 'system' that is beating the Book, they will move lines, change formats, set limits, or whatever they have to do to counter it. Anyway, off my 'soapbox' lol.... have a great evening my friend!
I just registered to say thank you for your picks. Been following you for couple of days with great success !
As I understand your 1st period pick, if it's a tie, you push. If it's the case, would it be better to play the 1st period 3way ?
Exemple for Washington in my book: +200 for a 1st period win and +160 for a 1st period draw. Take approximately 60% of what you would have bet on the -115 line on the 1st period win and the other 40% on the draw.
Let's say 1 unit = $100 so, for your bet, you would have bet $115 to win $100.
60% of $115 = $69 at +200 = $138
40% of $115 = $46 at +160 = $73.6
If it's a 1st period win, you win more than one unit and if it's a draw, you recover your bet and a little bit more. Am I missing something ?
Classically, you can get better odds 3 way betting. Unfortunately my Book does not offer 3 Way Betting, and I have been cut off by most that do offer it ....
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Quote Originally Posted by GiveMe_Money:
I just registered to say thank you for your picks. Been following you for couple of days with great success !
As I understand your 1st period pick, if it's a tie, you push. If it's the case, would it be better to play the 1st period 3way ?
Exemple for Washington in my book: +200 for a 1st period win and +160 for a 1st period draw. Take approximately 60% of what you would have bet on the -115 line on the 1st period win and the other 40% on the draw.
Let's say 1 unit = $100 so, for your bet, you would have bet $115 to win $100.
60% of $115 = $69 at +200 = $138
40% of $115 = $46 at +160 = $73.6
If it's a 1st period win, you win more than one unit and if it's a draw, you recover your bet and a little bit more. Am I missing something ?
Classically, you can get better odds 3 way betting. Unfortunately my Book does not offer 3 Way Betting, and I have been cut off by most that do offer it ....
They've been consistently winning in the 58% to 70% range, which is a profitable range.
Subscribing to their service now (for the rest of the NBA season & playoffs) would require an investment of around $650.
If one bets, say, $500 each bet -- and many, many cappers in Covers do bet those amounts and more -- it would take only two extra winning bets to fully cover the investment into Swish Analytics for the rest of the season.
Swish posts numerous plays each day and wins absurd numbers of them, especially given the sheer numbers of their plays in a league that's as tough to bet in as the NBA.
It would take YEARS of effort and losses/wins of many thousands of dollars for a capper to reverse-engineer the picks of the pro cappers to reach the point of not needing their services, yes?
One could amortize the cost of buying a capping service and spread the cost over the whole season and count that cost as extra juice if one wants, but that would not be an accurate reflection of the true ROI of investing into a good capper service.
So, I don't see how investing into a good capper system, like Swish, would not be a good investment for a capper who does not have the full repertoire of capping tools that one needs to be successful in this brutal biz.
2 things - I wish I could wager 500 a bet & that be just a fraction of the ideal Kelly wager! If one did that & had consistent winners, you could probably justify the cost. 7's is right though & you have to look at many years of capper performance to see if they are consistent. I can think of a handful of legitimate good ones offhand but won't mention names due to forum rules & such.
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Quote Originally Posted by Mozart:
7s~
Ok, excellent. Thank you.
Hardtimes75 mentioned that it would not be worth paying for a quality capper to make picks for one, but how can that be for an inexperienced capper?
They've been consistently winning in the 58% to 70% range, which is a profitable range.
Subscribing to their service now (for the rest of the NBA season & playoffs) would require an investment of around $650.
If one bets, say, $500 each bet -- and many, many cappers in Covers do bet those amounts and more -- it would take only two extra winning bets to fully cover the investment into Swish Analytics for the rest of the season.
Swish posts numerous plays each day and wins absurd numbers of them, especially given the sheer numbers of their plays in a league that's as tough to bet in as the NBA.
It would take YEARS of effort and losses/wins of many thousands of dollars for a capper to reverse-engineer the picks of the pro cappers to reach the point of not needing their services, yes?
One could amortize the cost of buying a capping service and spread the cost over the whole season and count that cost as extra juice if one wants, but that would not be an accurate reflection of the true ROI of investing into a good capper service.
So, I don't see how investing into a good capper system, like Swish, would not be a good investment for a capper who does not have the full repertoire of capping tools that one needs to be successful in this brutal biz.
2 things - I wish I could wager 500 a bet & that be just a fraction of the ideal Kelly wager! If one did that & had consistent winners, you could probably justify the cost. 7's is right though & you have to look at many years of capper performance to see if they are consistent. I can think of a handful of legitimate good ones offhand but won't mention names due to forum rules & such.
I just registered to say thank you for your picks. Been following you for couple of days with great success !
As I understand your 1st period pick, if it's a tie, you push. If it's the case, would it be better to play the 1st period 3way ?
Exemple for Washington in my book: +200 for a 1st period win and +160 for a 1st period draw. Take approximately 60% of what you would have bet on the -115 line on the 1st period win and the other 40% on the draw.
Let's say 1 unit = $100 so, for your bet, you would have bet $115 to win $100.
60% of $115 = $69 at +200 = $138
40% of $115 = $46 at +160 = $73.6
If it's a 1st period win, you win more than one unit and if it's a draw, you recover your bet and a little bit more. Am I missing something ?
Interesting idea - creating a synthetic line with multiple bets. I've been known to do similar combining MLB ML & RL bets to get an effective -1 runline hedge. With my book, I can do that & usually get better combo odds than they post themselves for the -1 line. (They're VERY sneaky like that).
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Quote Originally Posted by GiveMe_Money:
I just registered to say thank you for your picks. Been following you for couple of days with great success !
As I understand your 1st period pick, if it's a tie, you push. If it's the case, would it be better to play the 1st period 3way ?
Exemple for Washington in my book: +200 for a 1st period win and +160 for a 1st period draw. Take approximately 60% of what you would have bet on the -115 line on the 1st period win and the other 40% on the draw.
Let's say 1 unit = $100 so, for your bet, you would have bet $115 to win $100.
60% of $115 = $69 at +200 = $138
40% of $115 = $46 at +160 = $73.6
If it's a 1st period win, you win more than one unit and if it's a draw, you recover your bet and a little bit more. Am I missing something ?
Interesting idea - creating a synthetic line with multiple bets. I've been known to do similar combining MLB ML & RL bets to get an effective -1 runline hedge. With my book, I can do that & usually get better combo odds than they post themselves for the -1 line. (They're VERY sneaky like that).
2 things - I wish I could wager 500 a bet & that be just a fraction of the ideal Kelly wager! If one did that & had consistent winners, you could probably justify the cost. 7's is right though & you have to look at many years of capper performance to see if they are consistent. I can think of a handful of legitimate good ones offhand but won't mention names due to forum rules & such.
Agreed, the vast, vast, VAST majority are a whole lot better a getting YOUR money than they are at getting the Books money. Tread carefully if going in that direction. I knew a guy in Vegas that would litterally throw temper tantrums a few times a week, and the other nights he was celebrating to the point you could hear he was winning. All in all, a losing player, but I was shocked to hear a year later he had a Handicapping Service.... I was nothing short of floored to hear it. Anyway, have a great night everyone, going to watch the rest of this game and drift off
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Quote Originally Posted by Hardtimes75:
2 things - I wish I could wager 500 a bet & that be just a fraction of the ideal Kelly wager! If one did that & had consistent winners, you could probably justify the cost. 7's is right though & you have to look at many years of capper performance to see if they are consistent. I can think of a handful of legitimate good ones offhand but won't mention names due to forum rules & such.
Agreed, the vast, vast, VAST majority are a whole lot better a getting YOUR money than they are at getting the Books money. Tread carefully if going in that direction. I knew a guy in Vegas that would litterally throw temper tantrums a few times a week, and the other nights he was celebrating to the point you could hear he was winning. All in all, a losing player, but I was shocked to hear a year later he had a Handicapping Service.... I was nothing short of floored to hear it. Anyway, have a great night everyone, going to watch the rest of this game and drift off
I just registered to say thank you for your picks. Been following you for couple of days with great success !
As I understand your 1st period pick, if it's a tie, you push. If it's the case, would it be better to play the 1st period 3way ?
Exemple for Washington in my book: +200 for a 1st period win and +160 for a 1st period draw. Take approximately 60% of what you would have bet on the -115 line on the 1st period win and the other 40% on the draw.
Let's say 1 unit = $100 so, for your bet, you would have bet $115 to win $100.
60% of $115 = $69 at +200 = $138
40% of $115 = $46 at +160 = $73.6
If it's a 1st period win, you win more than one unit and if it's a draw, you recover your bet and a little bit more. Am I missing something ?
I knew I was missing something...I forgot to deduct the amount of the losing bet. Washington won the 1st period so a gain of $138 but if I deduct the losing draw bet, the net gain is only $92.
So to make this interesting the odds would have to be at least +220 but if it's end in a draw,you would lose money compare to a push...
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Quote Originally Posted by GiveMe_Money:
I just registered to say thank you for your picks. Been following you for couple of days with great success !
As I understand your 1st period pick, if it's a tie, you push. If it's the case, would it be better to play the 1st period 3way ?
Exemple for Washington in my book: +200 for a 1st period win and +160 for a 1st period draw. Take approximately 60% of what you would have bet on the -115 line on the 1st period win and the other 40% on the draw.
Let's say 1 unit = $100 so, for your bet, you would have bet $115 to win $100.
60% of $115 = $69 at +200 = $138
40% of $115 = $46 at +160 = $73.6
If it's a 1st period win, you win more than one unit and if it's a draw, you recover your bet and a little bit more. Am I missing something ?
I knew I was missing something...I forgot to deduct the amount of the losing bet. Washington won the 1st period so a gain of $138 but if I deduct the losing draw bet, the net gain is only $92.
So to make this interesting the odds would have to be at least +220 but if it's end in a draw,you would lose money compare to a push...
Could be a nice platform to reach more people with your winning plays
I've been following covers off and on for close to 3 Years and prefer it over Twitter. Also seems more often than not when I see someone doing good that moves to Twitter they start charging for their picks. Not saying that's the case here...but if he is sharing his picks here or some type of forum is better than Twitter in my opinion.
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Quote Originally Posted by TheCounselor:
do you have an account on twitter ?
Could be a nice platform to reach more people with your winning plays
I've been following covers off and on for close to 3 Years and prefer it over Twitter. Also seems more often than not when I see someone doing good that moves to Twitter they start charging for their picks. Not saying that's the case here...but if he is sharing his picks here or some type of forum is better than Twitter in my opinion.
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