November Hockey

YTD: +14.55

Nice start to the year in October. Let's see if it continues this month. Risk 1 unit on all unless otherwise noted.


Boston -0.5 (reg) -115 & Boston -1.5 +158

I just like the matchup here for the Bruins even though they are struggling mightily. Looks like Thomas will go tonight and he has been playing great again this year. Boston's problem is they can't score but a lot of that is variance. They are Top 10 in shots but nowhere near where a Top 10 team should be in terms of goals per game. Their shooting % is an unheard of 6.3%. It's only a matter of time before they hit the net big. They've had an extra practice since their last game too which is big.

Speaking of hitting the net that is something Ottawa has done a lot during their 6 game win streak. I don't think they have the talent to keep up this pace especially without Alfredsson. Against a top notch defensive team and goalie is where they could hit the wall. I'm not too excited about Ottawa either, they haven't really beaten what I'd consider a legit team. The only ones they've played so far have been Detroit, Colorado, Washington, and Philadelphia and are 0-4 with 3 losses by multiple goals. These two teams may seem different this year but Boston won 5 of the 6 meetings last year with Ottawa scoring just 0, 2, 0, 2, 0, and 1 goals.

GL.

BOL andarmac

I'd like to see the Bruins bounce back here at home

GOOD LUCK 

GL!

GL Mac....keep it rolling

nice job again!! winner! 

Congrats
Greetings from overseas

Andy,

     Great work. I see that when you take a price on a bet, you risk one unit (assuming its a one unit play), which is what most bettors do, and which I believe is spot on, or close to it. This may have been addressed in an earlier thread, but I was wondering why you risk the same one unit when you're laying a price on a bet, versus risking the amount necessary to win one unit, which is what most bettors do, or risking some other multiple. Of course it works against you when you lay a price, which would make one want to keep the risk down, but balancing this out to some degree is that in making a play laying a price you are admitting in most cases that the probability of cashing  the bet is higher than it would be in the case of taking a price.

     I've fooled around with some sample calculations using different numbers with the Kelley criterion equation, which tells you the optimal risk amount expressed as a % of bankroll, depending upon the expected win % and the lay or take price. It seems the optimal risk amount when laying a price lies between the one unit you use and the amount necessary to win one unit that most bettors use. This is by no means theotetically derived, but on the basis of my sample calculations plugging in different numbers, it seems the optimal risk amount when laying a price is close to 1 unit times the square root of (lay price divided by 100). Example: lay price = 140, hypothesized optimal risk amount = 1 unit times  (square root of 140/100) = 1.18 units. What do you think?

    

rollin along nicely....

I've always risked the same percentage on 95% of my bets for as long as I can remember. It's just the way I have always done it, same amount whether on a dog or fav. My strategy for each sport is to come in with a certain bankroll for that season and 95% of the time bet the same amount each bet no matter the line. I am controlled but very aggressive and I am fully prepared to lose the full amount I come into the season with. In hockey I bet 5% of my original bankroll on each bet. Early in the season I could have nearly 50% of my designated hockey bankroll in play on any given night. In NFL I bet 7.5% on each bet in the regular season and preseason, going to 10% for the playoffs. If not for a good preseason I would have been over halfway to losing my NFL bankroll this year but that is OK. I don't do this for a living or bet huge amounts and I don't pretend to.

Sounds foolish but I have yet to read up on the Kelly system. So I can't really comment on your strategy. I would like to look into it some though as I think I am probably not squeezing out every penny the way I'm doing it now but I barely have enough time to bet the games right now so I don't see it happening soon.

In a nutshell, the Kelly criterion is

anything doing?

GL

Nice thread good luck tonight!

Stew Baker - Good stuff and thanks for the post and the time. I will look into it more if I find the time.

YTD: +17.00

Couple for Thursday, I don't play many totals but I'll take a shot with these two:


Calgary/Detroit OVER 5.5 +120

The Wings have lost 5 straight and can't hit the back of the net. But the 5 previous games they scored 3, 5, 2, 3, and 5 goals. They are averaging almost 36 shots per game but their shooting percentage is just 6.4%. I think their slump is just goal scoring variance. Sooner or later the tide will turn. Every team that has lead the league in shots per game since the lockout has scored over 3 goals per game except last year when they scored 2.96. The Wings right now are at 2.3 and there is no way that pace keeps up over the season at the rate they are firing shots. I think tonight could be a nice spot to breakout against a Flames team that is nothing special defensively as they are bottom 10 in the league in just about every defensive category.

On the other side I wouldn't sleep on the Flames lighting the lamp either. Since the start of last year they have averaged 3.22 goals per game after a SU loss where they scored 1 goal or less. In those games they scored at least 3 goals 13 of 18 times.


New Jersey/Philadelphia UNDER 5 +127

Not too much to say here other than I think after an 8 goal game last night the Devils go out and try to play one of their typical road games where they slow everything down and try to grind it out. Philly is always dangerous offensively but I think the Devils play defense first tonight and slow the game down. Hedberg gets the start and should be an upgrade over Brodeur who was awful last night. The Flyers have been scoring a lot lately but their PP has been awful at just 1 for 17 since Pronger went down.


GL.

BOL tonight

Andy,

     A precautionary note: Many proponents of the Kelly deal with the issue of simultaneous bets simply by cutting back the bet amount used in a single bet situation, and not getting involved in parlays. Their approach gives a "best approximation" of the risk involved and the results achieved when using the true Kelly. When you break close to even in a simultaneous bet tier, the "simplified Kelly" works fine, but the more you deviate from that .500 mark in a tier, the more you miss thje mark. If you have a season with some serious swings on your simultaneous bet days, you're final results will be considerably off. Even a bunch of 2-0 or 0-2 type days will skew the results. I thus strongly object to the "simplified Kelly" approach.