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    All Forums | NHL Betting Forum

    Does line movement matter in hockey?

    Drewish
    Coin86
    Dangerbay
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    Sublime79
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    Drewish
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2016 - 10:31 PM ET #1

    People look at line movement in sports like football, basketball and baseball since those sports are bet a lot.  I know there is lot less betting in hockey compared to football and basketball.  If thats the case, wouldn't that mean line movement in hockey means a lot more than other sports?  


    However, im sure many average joes in Canada bet hockey so its like your average Joe in America where they bet on the favorites etc right?


    The thing is when you look at nfl, nba etc, everyone bets it.  So there is lot of bets coming from sharps and average joes etc.  Has anyone here tracked line movement in hockey?  Do trap lines exist in NHL more so than other sports?  We always hear about trap or fishy lines in nfl and nba.  But what about nhl?
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    People look at line movement in sports like football, basketball and baseball since those sports are bet a lot.  I know there is lot less betting in hockey compared to football and basketball.  If thats the case, wouldn't that mean line movement in hockey means a lot more than other sports?  


    However, im sure many average joes in Canada bet hockey so its like your average Joe in America where they bet on the favorites etc right?


    The thing is when you look at nfl, nba etc, everyone bets it.  So there is lot of bets coming from sharps and average joes etc.  Has anyone here tracked line movement in hockey?  Do trap lines exist in NHL more so than other sports?  We always hear about trap or fishy lines in nfl and nba.  But what about nhl?
     
    Coin86
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2016 - 10:37 PM ET #2

    I'm still learning all this but I think it's mostly based on winning and losing streaks and also some teams play other teams very well. Also playing styles and who matches up against who. Also goalies are huge in NHL if you have  a hot goalie in there it can bring you a victory. Basically try to find the lines with enough juice to make it worth it and stay away from the high lines like -200. Sometimes they change lines around just because they assume that a team is due to break out of a funk or whatever but I mostly base things off other stuff before looking at line movement.

    This might not answer your question though

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    I'm still learning all this but I think it's mostly based on winning and losing streaks and also some teams play other teams very well. Also playing styles and who matches up against who. Also goalies are huge in NHL if you have  a hot goalie in there it can bring you a victory. Basically try to find the lines with enough juice to make it worth it and stay away from the high lines like -200. Sometimes they change lines around just because they assume that a team is due to break out of a funk or whatever but I mostly base things off other stuff before looking at line movement.

    This might not answer your question though

     
    Dangerbay
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    Posted: Nov. 19, 2016 - 1:32 AM ET #3

    Ask freddy666 aka joe pesci.  He's been studying line movements in hockey for almost his entire life.  Fishy or trap lines absolutely exist in hockey.  Just look at tonights line on Columbus +111 (taken from winning poster vicb's thread).  Probably the only reason he played the Jackets was bc that line stunk so bad. 

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    Ask freddy666 aka joe pesci.  He's been studying line movements in hockey for almost his entire life.  Fishy or trap lines absolutely exist in hockey.  Just look at tonights line on Columbus +111 (taken from winning poster vicb's thread).  Probably the only reason he played the Jackets was bc that line stunk so bad. 

     
    Shauwig
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    Posted: Nov. 19, 2016 - 6:49 AM ET #4

    I'm from Europe so I lack some in my english/hockey lingo, so I better ask: What exactly is a trap line? (or meant when saying a line is fishy/trappy)
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    I'm from Europe so I lack some in my english/hockey lingo, so I better ask: What exactly is a trap line? (or meant when saying a line is fishy/trappy)
     
    Sublime79
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    Posted: Nov. 19, 2016 - 9:56 AM ET #5

    Personally i have noticed a trend in the opening lines. When you see a team that should generally be a big dog, that is set at something very close to even, I find that the previously assumed dog wins. Games that this recently happened with was mtl @ clb , and last night mtl @ car , and nyr @ clb.
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    Personally i have noticed a trend in the opening lines. When you see a team that should generally be a big dog, that is set at something very close to even, I find that the previously assumed dog wins. Games that this recently happened with was mtl @ clb , and last night mtl @ car , and nyr @ clb.
     
    newmarket
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    Posted: Nov. 19, 2016 - 10:03 AM ET #6

    I remember San Jose @ Washington few weeks ago.. Caps were at -160 all the way down to -129    San Jose won 3-0  

    Florida @ Montreal last week  undefeated Montreal at home
    -160 to -134    Florida won in OT

    Florida swept Habs last season

    It's not if I see something like this I would jump on the Sharks and Panthers.. its if I was leaning Caps or Habs to stay away 



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    I remember San Jose @ Washington few weeks ago.. Caps were at -160 all the way down to -129    San Jose won 3-0  

    Florida @ Montreal last week  undefeated Montreal at home
    -160 to -134    Florida won in OT

    Florida swept Habs last season

    It's not if I see something like this I would jump on the Sharks and Panthers.. its if I was leaning Caps or Habs to stay away 



     
    weeble5672
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    Posted: Nov. 19, 2016 - 11:20 AM ET #7

    Generally speaking, if a line looks too good to be true...bet the other side. Or better yet...stay away.

    That said, I've found (with no statistical data to back it up) that line movement means a lot less in hockey than it does in other sports (ie baseball).
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    Generally speaking, if a line looks too good to be true...bet the other side. Or better yet...stay away.

    That said, I've found (with no statistical data to back it up) that line movement means a lot less in hockey than it does in other sports (ie baseball).
     
    Lippsman
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    Posted: Nov. 19, 2016 - 11:32 AM ET #8

    If you actually cap the game properly you will see why a line is "too good to be true"  Like last night there was a reason the Canes were at a pickem or slight fave at gametime.  No Price, No Radulov (Habs 2nd leading scorer) Habs on a slight slide, Ward playing very well for Canes. 

    So, not a "trap" at all.  The line was set correctly, but if you don't cap games and just look at the line, then yeah.....Oh that's a trap line.

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    If you actually cap the game properly you will see why a line is "too good to be true"  Like last night there was a reason the Canes were at a pickem or slight fave at gametime.  No Price, No Radulov (Habs 2nd leading scorer) Habs on a slight slide, Ward playing very well for Canes. 

    So, not a "trap" at all.  The line was set correctly, but if you don't cap games and just look at the line, then yeah.....Oh that's a trap line.

     
    weeble5672
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    Posted: Nov. 19, 2016 - 11:42 AM ET #9

    Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:

    If you actually cap the game properly you will see why a line is "too good to be true"  Like last night there was a reason the Canes were at a pickem or slight fave at gametime.  No Price, No Radulov (Habs 2nd leading scorer) Habs on a slight slide, Ward playing very well for Canes. 

    So, not a "trap" at all.  The line was set correctly, but if you don't cap games and just look at the line, then yeah.....Oh that's a trap line.



    Yeah. What he said.

    PS There's no such thing as a "trap line". Any oddsmaker will tell you this. They don't try to trap you. They just look at EVERYTHING and not just the stats on paper.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:

    If you actually cap the game properly you will see why a line is "too good to be true"  Like last night there was a reason the Canes were at a pickem or slight fave at gametime.  No Price, No Radulov (Habs 2nd leading scorer) Habs on a slight slide, Ward playing very well for Canes. 

    So, not a "trap" at all.  The line was set correctly, but if you don't cap games and just look at the line, then yeah.....Oh that's a trap line.



    Yeah. What he said.

    PS There's no such thing as a "trap line". Any oddsmaker will tell you this. They don't try to trap you. They just look at EVERYTHING and not just the stats on paper.
     
     
    vicb
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    Posted: Nov. 19, 2016 - 11:47 AM ET #10

    Quote Originally Posted by Dangerbay:

    just look at tonights line on Columbus +111 (taken from winning poster vicb's thread).  Probably the only reason he played the Jackets was bc that line stunk so bad. 


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    Quote Originally Posted by Dangerbay:

    just look at tonights line on Columbus +111 (taken from winning poster vicb's thread).  Probably the only reason he played the Jackets was bc that line stunk so bad. 


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