December Overtime Picks

Good luck tonight we both missed these two early draws lol should’ve took em all but I wouldn’t have taken the favorite for both of these if I thought they were going to OT. Anyway it is indeed going to be a good December 

Dec 6 Results

STL@OTA OT +270 1 Unit to win 2.7 Units--LOSS

NYI@TB OT +290 1Unit to win 2.9 Units--LOSS

34 W/60 L= +27.35 Units Profit

Dec 7

COL@PHI OT +280 1 Unit to win 2.8 Units
STL@MTL OT +270 1 Unit to win 2.7 Units

122 OT games out of 452 games=26.99%.  (Expected Average is 23%), so the NHL is 18.04 games above average

Good luck today, I’m taking all draws as I had 4 draws and 2 maybes. Your season total does support taking all draws also considering it’s hitting at 27% tis the season

So far for December OT games are hitting at 19.1%. There are 2 ways to view this. 

1- Do we see 19.1% as showing a downtrend compared to OCT-26.1% and NOV-29.3% or

2- Is this year going to be a stellar year for OT games and this month is just a temporary downturn and therefore go bet crazy. 

GL today 

Than You Fuse.

Maybe go bet crazy is a poor choice of words. I mean bet like usual during this lower trend currently.

Dec 7

COL@PHI OT +280 1 Unit to win 2.8 Units--LOSS
STL@MTL OT +270 1 Unit to win 2.7 Units--LOSS

34 W/62 L= +25.35 Units Profit

124 OT games out of 460 games=26.96%.  (Expected Average is 23%), so the NHL is 18.20 games above average

I will be taking a break from overtime games for a bit till I do some analysis and as I expect a continuation of downtrend(currently for Dec  is 9 of 55 games =20%). For those lower percentages I will need real skill. 

Dec 10 Back again and with a different book and diff odds

NYR@CHI OT +325 1 Unit to win 3.25 Units

DET@CGY OT +3.25 1 Unit to win 3.25 Units

 
34 W/62 L= +25.35 Units Profit

128 OT games out of 475 games=26.95%.  (Expected Average is 23%), so the NHL is 18.75 games above average

Apparently I don't know what a break is.

Aha it’s about time after that 4/10 day I smell a lot of OT tomorrow, good to have you back comrade. Why would the best season for draws ever have a bad December when December is the best month for draws most years

Dec 10 Results

NYR@CHI OT +325 1 Unit to win 3.25 Units--LOSS

DET@CGY OT +3.25 1 Unit to win 3.25 Units--LOSS

 
34 W/64 L= +23.35 Units Profit

Dec 11

TB@NJ OT +325 1 Unit to win 3.25 Units

CAR@WSH OT +325 1 Unit t win 3.25 Units

STL@NSH OT +325 1 Unit to win 3.25 Units

BUF@VAN OT +325 1 Unit to win 3.25 Units

DET@EDM OT +325 1 Unit to win 3.25 Units

129 OT games out of 479 games=26.93%.  (Expected Average is 23%), so the NHL is 18.83 games above average

Well so far in Dec OT games are hitting 16 of 74 games =21.62% but to tell the truth, I am not sure what todo with that number other than just treat it as a novelty figure or does it really show any trend at all? Numbers are tricky.

If low numbers were constant for December then I really should take STL and BUF as my top 2. 

@Blind_Monkey

 I find props shittier around Xmas time/new years...boys out partying and with family

Not sure if it has anything to do with ties but figured I'd give ya the info

Also I think another poster said look at road teams over holidays cause home teams not fully focused...maybe someone who does queries/sqdl or whatever that called can check home team records between dec.20-jan.3

Thanks dubz4dummyz. You could have a point with the holiday season parting. I have been looking into the home team stats somewhat for consistent pattern. 

Dec 11 Results

TB@NJ OT +325 1 Unit to win 3.25 Units--LOSS

CAR@WSH OT +325 1 Unit t win 3.25 Units--WIN

STL@NSH OT +325 1 Unit to win 3.25 Units--LOSS

BUF@VAN OT +325 1 Unit to win 3.25 Units--LOSS

DET@EDM OT +325 1 Unit to win 3.25 Units--LOSS

35 W/68 L= +22.60 Units Profit

Dec 12 

CHI@STL OT +325 1 Unit to win 3.25 Units

132 OT games out of 492 games=26.82%.  (Expected Average is 23%), so the NHL is 18.84 games above average

December to date 19 OT of 87 games=21.84% 

Dec 12 Results

CHI@STL OT +325 1 Unit to win 3.25 Units--LOSS

35 W/69 L= +21.60 Units Profit

ANA@NJ OT +325 1 Unit to win 3.25 Units

DET@CHI OT +325 1 Unit t win 3.25 Units

NSH@COL OT +425 1 Unit to win 4.25 Units

132 OT games out of 494 games=26.72%.  (Expected Average is 23%), so the NHL is 18.38 games above average

December to date 19 OT of 89 games=21.35% 

Love the idea…

TB/NYI +320

CAR/PHIL +340

EDM/TOR +340

Good luck today gentle sir 

Dec 13 Results

ANA@NJ OT +325 1 Unit to win 3.25 Units--LOSS

DET@CHI OT +325 1 Unit t win 3.25 Units--LOSS

NSH@COL OT +425 1 Unit to win 4.25 Units--LOSS

35 W/72 L= +18.60 Units Profit

137 OT games out of 507 games=27.02%.  (Expected Average is 23%), so the NHL is 20.39 games above average

December to date 24 OT of 102 games=23.53% 

Well I think I am done with OT games. I will take that profit before it all disappears. I am going to focus on predicting  Final Score Games.

Dec 18 (Giving another go at it)

TOR@WSH OT +325 1 Unit to win 3.25 Units

PIT@OTA OT +325 1 Unit t win 3.25 Units

Will Add NYR and DAL when those odds are at my book.

35 W/72 L= +18.60 Units Profit

142 OT games out of 533 games=26.64%.  (Expected Average is 23%), so the NHL is 19.41 games above average

December to date 29 OT of 128 games=22.65%

Adding

NYR@STL OT +325 1 Unit to win 3.25 Units

DAL@SJ OT +350 1 Unit to win 3.5 Units