December Overtime Picks

Dec 1

PIT@PHI OT +280 1 Unit to win 2.8 Units

33 W/48 L= +34.55 Units Profit

91 OT games out of 407 games=22.36%.  Target is 23%, so the NHL is 2.61 games below target.

@Blind_Monkey

 Thanks

What do you mean by ‘target’?

Good luck today ole chap I had pit/phi as a maybe and Cls/nj as a super draw tonight
I hope your luck turns around as I noticed you actually lost the past two days which is surprising for you. Two days ago I had a big night for draws but picks and parlays lost more so I really should be betting more on these draws lol

Target is my expectations for where the NHL will most likely average out to. I am just trying to show how close I am or how far. Theory being when below target bet more games tan when above for less games.

Dec 1 Results

PIT@PHI OT +280 1 Unit to win 2.8 Units--LOSS

33 W/49 L= +33.55 Units Profit

Dec 2

MIN@EDM OT +290 1 Unit to win 2.9 Units

WSH@LA OT +270 1 Unit to win 2.7 Units

91 OT games out of 412 games=22.08%.  Target is 23%, so the NHL is 3.76 games below target.

Dec 2 Results

MIN@EDM OT +290 1 Unit to win 2.9 Units--LOSS

WSH@LA OT +270 1 Unit to win 2.7 Units--LOSS

33 W/51 L= +31.55 Units Profit

Dec 3

BUF@PHI OT +280 1 Unit to win 2.8 Units

93 OT games out of 422 games=22.04%.  Target is 23%, so the NHL is 4.06 games below target.

Good luck today I also had this as the strongest draw of the day but no super draws and enough games close to a draw that I took em all, been on a down slide with you the past two days…it’s been a cold December but I tell you December is the best month for draws 

Thanks Scroopy. I am going back to the full picks instead of my so called lean picks, as they aren't hitting for me right now. I think tomorrow is a good time to play them. Seven selections are due to hit. I am looking forward to the coming uptrend of OT's.  

Dec 3

BUF@PHI OT +280 1 Unit to win 2.8 Units--LOSS

33 W/52 L= +30.55 Units Profit

Dec 4 (I am switching back to my original picking method as since I have changed from it, I have not achieved what I thought I would. This involves more picks but should return profit)

STL@BOS OT +280 1 Unit t win 2.8 Units

NYR@OTA OT +280 1 Unit to win 2.8 Units

PIT@TB OT +300 1 Unit to win 3 Units

MIN @CGY OT +280 1 Unit to win 2.8 Units

SEA@EDM OT +300 1 Unit to win 3 Units

CHI@LA OT +300 1 Unit to win 3 Units

94 OT games out of 427 games=22.01%.  Target is 23%, so the NHL is 4.21 games below target.

Good luck today we are on different pages for some of these draws but I had chi and edm as weak draws that I am only placing cause of you. My three true draws were nyr pit cls with nyr being the super draw. May we both thrive tonight

BTW I am starting to grade my selections and tonight is my trial run. I just want to see how many come close. On paper for strongest +edge to - edge games are SEA(+57%),STL(+27%),PIT(+17%),CHI(+13%),MIN(0.0%) and STL(-3%). I am just testing these edge amounts for now on paper. On paper I should stay away from NYR and MIN as there is -3and 0% returns.

NYR should read -3 not STL.

I am sorry my typos are terrible the edge for PIT should be +37% not +17%.

@Blind_Monkey

Gl bm

Are those percentages for draws or sides? Always good to have more data lol

Draws. And its just a ranking for OT strength.

I don’t understand the numbers than chi is 13% then why take it and min you have 0%

OK so I just Discovered that a lot of the games I won in December was just by pure luck. My data was all off. What a fool I was for not checking till now as a double check. So here are the real number as of after tonight's results have been tallied. And you can probably ignore anything else I have said.

Oct--47 OT games out of 180 games=26.11%-------Last Oct--33 OT games out of 161 games=20.49%

Nov--66 OT games out of 225 games=29.33%-------Lat Nov--46 OT games out f 220 games=20.91%

Dec to date 5 OT games out of 30 games 27.13%-- Didn't calculate last year so totals for Oct and Nov are 79 OT games out of 381 games=20.73%

Totals to date 118 OT games out of 435 games=27.13%  +17.95 games over 23%. No wonder few are hitting.

We had huge run up over Oct and Nov (dumb luck). 

Even though I led people astray and feel awful about it I will still post but at a much reduced amount of games and will focus more on sides for a bit.

Dec 4 Results(I am pissed at my corrupted data -now fixed)

STL@BOS OT +280 1 Unit t win 2.8 Units--LOSS

NYR@OTA OT +280 1 Unit to win 2.8 Units--LOSS

PIT@TB OT +300 1 Unit to win 3 Units--LOSS

MIN @CGY OT +280 1 Unit to win 2.8 Units--LOSS

SEA@EDM OT +300 1 Unit to win 3 Units--LOSS

CHI@LA OT +300 1 Unit to win 3 Units--LOSS

33 W/58 L= +26.55 Units Profit

Dec 5 (LOL)

WSH@ANA OT +280 1 Unit to win 2.8 Units.

118 OT games out of 435 games=27.13%.  Target is 23%, so the NHL is 17.95 games above target.

ah it’s ok I should’ve went 2/7 yesterday but instead 1/6 Drats I say keep firing I can’t believe your ridiculous run was purely luck does that mean mine was luck as well? Good “luck” today

Hang in there your ability will definitely change your luck. You too noopers

Dec 5 Results

WSH@ANA OT +280 1 Unit to win 2.8 Units--WIN

34 W/59 L= +29.35 Units Profit

Dec 6

STL@OTA OT +270 1 Unit to win 2.7 Units

NYI@TB OT +290 1Unit to win 2.9 Units

119 OT games out of 440 games=27.05%.  (Expected Average is 23%), so the NHL is 17.80 games above average.

Not purely luck Scroopy but OT games were hitting about 30% starting Nov. It didn't matter as you could win just by picking all the game and be in profit. 

STL,NYI are 2 random picks from What I normally would pick. So those selections were STL,NYI,WPG,MIN and DET for OT. I think we are way to high so I believe maybe a couple to 3 games come in as OT. But you never know Maybe December will be as hot as November.  

Must be my age but another typo win lose should read 34 W 58 L