Another year older...and hopefully wiser!

Montreal $200 x 2.02 = $404

Tried to believe in the Leafs the other night and the game was basically over the moment the puck dropped as Stamkos burned his hometown team again just over a minute into the game and the Lightning never looked backed.  The 7-3 final score after all the early talk about blowing leads is probably a further indication that any tending and defensive issues run deeper than just early season rust.  With Freddy A in net again tonight, Florida clearly has the edge answering with Luongo at the other end who has been incredibly rejuvenated since coming back to Florida after the last couple stressful seasons in Vancouver.  As a side note, Luongo has a 20-8 record with 2.23 GAA and .926 sv% in his career vs. Toronto.

Florida also played the Leafs well last year going 3-1 and winning both games at the ACC.  I think they will be disappointed that they let a 2-0 lead slip away in their last game vs. the Penguins and not generating any points out of it, and will be ready to right the ship tonight.  With pretty even penalty kill units for these teams so far, one area where the Leafs have an advantage is with their PP which is firing at 26.3% this season.  However this advantage will be mitigated by the fact that the Panthers are one of the best disciplined teams in the league with only 20 minor penalties, and only 13 times shorthanded, through 6 games.

Everything matches up well for the Panthers tonight, great value at almost even money!  BOL

I dug deep into the stats barrel for this game...mostly because it was a slow day at work, but found some interesting things anyway.  I remember thinking the other night about the Carolina/Detroit game if there was a stat about how teams perform in the last game of a long road trip, as Carolina was on the last game of a 6 game trip to open the season (they ended up losing the game).  My hope was to maybe find a trend that teams are worn out, just looking forward to going home, and maybe don't fare too well.  Couldn't find anything, so I looked into it today and the overall league-wide record of teams playing in the last game of a 5-game or longer road trip (last 2 seasons only) is only 42-53 (.442).  I was a bit disappointed that it wasn't more convincing, so I filtered it and didn't include teams that recorded at least 100 points and the record was 22-38 (.367).  A bit better so I went further and only included teams that recorded under 90 points and their combined record in these situations was 6-18 (.250).  Not sure if this is anything significant, just take it for what it's worth...obviously as you filter out the better teams (who are more well equipped to win in tough situations anyway), the overall record of weaker teams in the league in this situation is not great.

What does this have to do with tonight?  Well after their home-opener, coincidentally a win against Philadelphia, the Coyotes are playing the last game of a 6-game trip in Philly tonight (0-5 on the trip).  I also think we can probably lump Arizona into that sub-90 point group so hopefully we have that trend on our side.  The Coyotes will also start Louis Domingue tonight and to say that he has struggled this year would be an understatement.  He's still a young goalie that has shown stretches of capability, but has been thrust into this spot prematurely due to injuries this season and last.  When called up last year he led the Coyotes to a 7-2-2 record in his first 11 games before becoming a bit overwhelmed and going 8-16-3 in his next 27 games including a 14 game stretch with a GAA of 3.73 (better than this year's 5.04 to date...yikes!).

Philly should be rolling full of confidence after overcoming a 3-0 deficit to win in a shootout against Buffalo last time out...this one could get ugly.  I know I said I wouldn't but going with the regulation line again to wipe out almost all the juice.  Good luck everyone!

I use decimal odds but also try to include the +/- as I know that's what most people go by.  The decimal is more like a multiplier.

Odds last night were 2.02 (decimal form), and +102 (American form).  You're right though my total winnings (profit) on the pick was only $204.  But in order for me to calculate my ROI accurately I frame it in terms of risk/return.

ie. When I make a bet, $200 goes out of my account (the risk)...if it loses I get nothing back, but if it wins I get back my original stake plus the profit (200 + 204).

I know it can be confusing or a bit different than other people keep track, but thanks for keeping an eye out and keeping me honest!  Much respect brother!

Calgary ML, 1.83/-120 (bookmaker)

After a rough ride to open the season the Flames seem to have figured out a few things on their recent 2-game road trip picking up nice wins in Chicago and St. Louis.  Most of this can probably be attributed to Brian Elliott finding his game after being completely lit up by Edmonton in his first 2 games as a Flame.  Most sources had the Flames projected to do quite well this season, so hopefully this recent play is more of what we can expect the rest of the season.

On the other side, Craig Anderson has been granted a leave of absence from the Sens for a personal matter that remains a mystery.  This means Andrew Hammond will be in net tonight for Ottawa, and he didn't fare too well in his only game action so far allowing 5 goals on 25 shots.  Both teams have a fairly similar PP (slight edge to Calgary) and PK (both in the 70's%), but as we all know goalies can be a great equalizer and a teams best penalty-killer.  This bodes well for the Flames if Elliott has indeed figured out his game, while hopefully they can bury a few chances on Hammond at the other end.  This is basically a play on the goaltending matchup tonight.

Carolina ML, 2.10/+110 (sportsinteraction)

I'm hoping this play will be a tale of two teams that will revert to the mean a little bit.  The Rangers come in on a 3-game winning streak that was kicked off with an impressive come from behind win @ Washington.  They followed that up with wins at home vs. Arizona (who was in the midst of a 6-game road trip/5-game losing streak) and Boston.  They deserve some credit for erasing an early 2 goal deficit against the Bruins but at the same time I feel like they were a bit fortunate that the B's had Zane McIntyre (4th string) in net.  Most of their nice 5-2 record can be eaten up by their 4-1 mark at home where they usually play very well.  I'm hoping tonight on the road they might be a bit over-confident and not as dominant as usual.

On the flip side, this is Carolina's home-opener after a gruelling 6-game road trip to begin the season.  On the surface they are only 1-3-2 but beneath that the numbers shine a marginally better light on the Hurricanes performance.  They blew multi-goal leads in both of their first 2 games and losing those games maybe just got the ball rolling the wrong way, especially for a young team.  Despite that though, they have been quite efficient on the PP and PK, and actually outshot their opponent in 5 of those 6 road games...not usually an easy feat.  However, one major area of concern is their goaltending as both Ward and Lack have been atrocious.

I missed getting this at +115 by just a few minutes but I believe it still has good value.  I'm hoping Carolina can put together a solid team game in front of the home crowd for the first time and that Ward can elevate his play tonight, as I believe the Hurricanes are poised for a breakout performance.

Going to try another over tonight even though I'm 0-2 on the season for totals so far.  Both of these teams can score and also give up a few goals too, as the average total for games played is over 6 for both the Jets and Avs.  Winnipeg is playing the 2nd leg of a back-to-back as well as their 3rd game in 4 nights, and 4 in 6, plus the travel to Denver from Winnipeg last night.  It would be understandable if they are a bit worn down tonight and Colorado is able to impose their aggressive attack game plan and put a few pucks behind Hutchinson tonight.  While I can see most of the play being carried by the Avalanche, if the Jets want to stay in the game they will have to take advantage on the PP, and they should be given their chances.  So far the Avs are the most penalized team in the league averaging 15 minutes of penalties per game combined with their struggling PK at less than 70%.  If the Jets can capitalize for at least a couple goals here I think the Avs will take care of the rest to get this thing over 5.5.

Edmonton 1st Period ML, 1.91/-110 (sportsinteraction) 

Trying something a bit different with this pick...and it's also maybe time for me to start drinking a bit of the Oil flavoured Kool-aid.  Edmonton has shown no signs of slowing down just yet, while after a 4-0 start (3 of those wins coming in OT) Vancouver has started to come back to earth.  At the same time they've shown a habit of going down early in games and grinding their way back over the course of the game.  Like I said, it worked a few times to start the year but it's not a winning formula long-term.  

The goaltending matchup tonight will be between Cam Talbot for Edmonton and Ryan Miller for Vancouver.  After a shutout in the opener Miller missed the next 4 games with an undisclosed injury.  He is 0-2 with 6 goals against in 2 starts since.  However he also has a sparkling 12-0-1 career record against the Oilers with 2.21 GAA and .921 sv%.  

Miller's success vs. the Oilers had me a bit hesitant to pull the trigger on the game especially with Edmonton being in the position of a road favourite, something I don't think they've earned yet (I'm just sipping the Kool-aid not chugging it at this point lol).  But I'm hoping their potent offense will come out firing and the Canucks trend of slow starts continues, plus the 1st period line is better than the game as the icing on the cake!  Good luck everyone!

Carolina $200 x 2.10 = $420

Calgary $200 x 1.83 = $366

Edmonton Push $200 = $200

Wpg/Col ov5.5 -$200

The lines have already moved down on both early this morning...Penguins can still be grabbed at 1.78/-128 at bookmaker, and the Lightning at 1.74/-135 at bet365.  Write-ups to follow later today.

Also big line move in the LA/StL game making the Kings an even bigger dog...going to take a closer look and might have to make it a play later tonight!

Los Angeles ML, 2.50/+150 (sportsinteraction)

Saw this game open at LA +120 and was sitting 50/50 on the dance about it.  Don't know why (there haven't been any surprises) but at some point today it jumped up and now sits at +150.  These two teams started the season completely opposite...0-3 for LA, and 3-0 for St. Louis.  Since then it seems they've both done 180's with LA winning their next 4 (although cutting it close in OT or SO all 4 games) while the Blues have gone 1-4.  I capitalized once on the Kings goaltending situation with Zatkoff vs. Minnesota and tried again to no avail with Budaj in net.  For whatever reason this team seems to be rallying around him and since being out shot in the first two games of the season, LA over this 4-game winning streak has outshot the opposition by an average of 36.25 to 23...that's a massive differential!  

They played St. Louis 3 times last year and went 1-2 however their 1 win was convincing (3-0) on the road and the 2 they lost were in OT/SO.  They happened to outshoot the Blues in all 3 of those games as well which is definitely the m.o. of the Kings we've known the past few years.  They're obviously comfortable with what St. Louis can throw at them and I'll take a shots advantage every time I can get it.  LA seems to have some serious mojo going right now and I just can't say no at +150!  BOL

Detroit -1.5, 3.15/+215 (bet365)

Detroit puts their perfect 4-0 record at Joe Louis on the line tonight in an original six matchup with the Bruins.  Yes, the Bruins might be starting Rask in net tonight (still not sure) which is obviously a huge upgrade from what they've been dealing with as he's one of the league's best.  Regardless there's a chance it could be a bit of a rush and he won't be as sharp as we're used to or not totally confident stretching out to the max as these groin injuries can be fickle.  

There really hasn't been any middle ground yet for the Bruins even though it's still early...they've either won by 2+ in 2/3 wins (the other a 1 goal win) or lost by multiple goals in all 4 of their losses.  They are still without David Backes tonight and also lose David Pastrnak to suspension tonight.  Meanwhile, don't look now but the Wings have reeled off 6 straight wins since opening 0-2 and are a completely different animal at home with a goal differential of 17-6 in their 4 wins.  I like them to win and hopefully not even need the empty-netter to make this bet cash!  First puckline play of the year, good luck!

philly is 6games in 9 days   b2b this aft.

caps b2b-dificult travel to calgary

thanks

I actually really like that angle in the Philly game and was looking at that late last night as a potential play.  It is the 2nd of b2b, and even worse than 6 in 9 it's actually their 5th game in 7 days, and you're right not even a full 24 hours.  As you might know I'm pretty high on Carolina this year (not as a contender or anything but to at least exceed expectations) as evidenced by my regular season points bet and playing them as a nice home dog vs. the Rangers the other night.  Ward played great in that game but the consistency makes me nervous.  I do like Carolina today but the ML price is a bit steep in my opinion so maybe a regulation play...but I'm 0-3 when I play regulation so far this year so proceed with caution.

As for Washington I don't think it's as much of a factor in that one.  They had 2 days between games before this b2b and 3 days rest between the game before that and have been camped out in Western Canada for the better part of the week.  I hate betting against really good teams, even in tough situations, because they find ways to win.  I'm not sure I would play the Caps as a heavy-ish road fave but at the same time I don't think I could stomach a Calgary bet.  

Good luck whatever you do, hope this helps!

gl on your plays

carolina  ml and pl for me

Pittsburgh ML $200 x 1.83 = $366.67

3 losses -$600

Phi/Car over 5.5, 2.15/+115 (bookmaker)

Edmonton TT over 4.5 (regulation only), 4.05/+305 (sportsinteraction)

Ottawa has yet to announce their starter tonight, but they did announce yesterday that Craig Anderson's wife has been diagnosed with cancer.  He was supposed to rejoin the team Saturday night as the Sens are in a pickle with Hammond going down last game against Calgary.  Chris Dreidger had to play in relief and we were fortunate because we were on Calgary in that game and the Flames were down at the time.  The Sens have also called up Matt O'Connor who was very highly touted coming out of college two years ago.  Dredger has yet to start an NHL game (he's come in relief 3 times total now), and O'Connor has just 1 start last year.  It's unclear who will start but I don't think the Oilers highly-skilled offense is the team any young goalie wants to be pressed into action against, and if Anderson is starting there's a good chance his mind will be elsewhere.  It's a longshot but why not take a shot!  And yes I realize karma will probably get me for trying to profit off this tragic situation...

Phi/Car ov5.5 $200 x 2.15 = $430

Edm TT -$200