Another year older...and hopefully wiser!

Washington ML, 1.83/-120 (sportsinteraction)

I picked against Florida in my 2nd bet of the year thinking the injuries to Huberdeau and Bjugstad would expose their lack of depth on the 3rd and 4th lines.  And despite their 2-0-1 start (and losing that bet) I still stand by that reasoning, especially tonight up against one of the deeper teams in the league where I think it catches up to them.  Washington has picked up somewhat where they left off last regular season and I think they will have the Panthers under constant pressure tonight.  Constant pressure leads to PP's and although Florida has a perfect PK so far this year I think that ends tonight now that the Caps got their PP going, scoring 2/5 against Colorado the other night.

Col/TB over 5.5, 2.05/+105 (sportsinteraction)

My first total play of the season!  Both these teams can score goals and have yet to nail down the defensive side of their play so far.  Colorado was simply outmatched last game against Washington, the 2nd night of a tough back-to-back vs. the Pens and Caps, getting outshot 40-18 and taking their 1st loss of the season.  I expect them to come out hard trying to re-establish their aggressive attacking identity and if a couple goals get scored early on in this one it could turn into a shootout!

Dallas (regulation), 2.10/+110 (bet365)

With the announcement of Quick being out for 3 months the LA Kings goaltending is in a world of trouble.  They have to ride the pair of Zatkoff and Peter Budaj until Quick is healthy or a trade is made.  Much like the other night in Minnesota where Zatkoff was chased after 5 goals and Budaj made 9/9 saves in relief, this is more/less a play against the Kings goaltending on the road with a Dallas team I expect to be one of the league's best again this year.  Right now, Budaj is listed as the "likely" starter (per Leftwing Lock) which who knows, could be an upgrade.  In my experience I've found a lot of times backups play very strong coming in in a relief situation only to struggle with the start the very next game.  Hoping for more of the same tonight with Budaj who aside from 1 start last year hasn't played in the NHL since the 2013/14 season.  Dallas in regulation at + money instead of -150ish on the ML.

BOL everyone!

can see the was fla match tie maybe 3-3 or 2-2 

Eakin, Hemsky, Janmark haven't played yet this season anyway, and Hudler already missed the last game too.  Dallas will ice the same lineup as their 2-1 win in Nashville.

Washington $200 x 1.83 = $366.67

Dallas-$200

Col/TB over -$200

Columbus ML, 2.20/+120 (sportsinteraction)

There have been some funny scheduling quirks so far this year an Columbus being 10 days into the season and only playing 2 games in that span is one of them.  They are 0-2, last played 6 nights ago, and have been at home the entire time.  You can be sure all they've been doing is practice, practice, practice, to quote Allen Iverson, and we all know how fun it must be to be getting drilled by John Tortorella for 6 days straight without having any opportunity to take your frustration out.  I expect them to be chomping at the bit, come out hard, have sharp special teams play, and get this win under their belt before heading out on a tough 4 game road trip through Dallas and Southern California.

On the flip side, despite an even record Chicago hasn't been particularly sharp yet.  They've only outshot an opponent 1 time this year in the game against Philly and it was by 1 shot.  Although they are 5/12 on the PP they are only killing penalties at a dreadful 47%.  I am hoping that with the week's worth of practice and looking ahead to this matchup the Blue Jackets will be able to shutdown the Blackhawks PP and also know exactly what to do to prolong Chicago's PK woes.  And making things a bit harder, they will be without the services of Marian Hossa tonight who sees time on both special teams units and is often the forgotten man in Chicago behind Toews and Kane.  I think it will be a big loss to their lineup.

I liked the value I got at +120, I see it around only +100 at the moment...I probably would not have bet it at that price.  Apologies for the delays in posting.  BOL tonight

Montreal ML, 2.00/+100 (bet365)

San Jose ML (line not out yet, this will be a play at any line a pick's or better).

Apologies I can't do the write-ups today...I still spent the time capping the games though.  BOL

Friday night:

Columbus $200 x 2.20 = $440

Saturday night:

Montreal $200 x 2.00 = $400

Did not play San Jose as I stated it would only be a play the line was a pick'em or better...best I saw on Saturday after the line came out was 1.74/-135 so it was no play and will not be counted in my record.  As I was not able to monitor the lines all day like I usually do, if something happened and someone saw it at a pick or better please let me know and I will adjust my record accordingly.

  

Cgy/Chi over 5.5, 2.00/+100 (bet365)

Chicago (regulation), 1.95/-105 (bet365)

Pretty simple rationale for these two plays tonight which maybe means I'm walking into a trap, but both Chicago and Calgary are the two teams in the league that have been involved in the highest scoring games.  Both of their goals for and allowed combined are 45 (tied with each other for most in the NHL) with the next highest combined total at 39 (Edmonton Oilers).  Calgary has allowed the most goals against in the league while Chicago is 2nd, and Chicago is also tied with Edmonton for highest scoring team in the league so far.  Of the Flames 6 games played they have only gone under the total of 5.5 once, and of Chicago's 6 games they have gone under 5.5 twice (both of those games had scores of 3-2).

High-scoring games are a product of good offenses and usually some awful goaltending along with it, and tonight's two starters have been far from on point this year.  In fact, one of the few tenders that ranks worse than Corey Crawford (.886) in sv% this year is Brian Elliott at a putrid .839, good for last in the league.  Both goalies are too good to not rebound and improve on those numbers this year but we will operate as is until that happens.  This gives one edge to Chicago tonight.  The other is that they are playing at home in the United Center where they are 3-1 already this year and consistently a difficult venue to play.  Chicago was tied for the 4th best home record last season and has had a top 10 home record in each of the last 5 years (it could be more, I only looked back 5 years).  The Blackhawks must be feeling great after their 2 goal, last few minute comeback against my Leafs on Saturday night.  I think they will keep that momentum going tonight and take care of business before having a couple days off between their next games, while the Flames know they have to head straight to St. Louis for another game tomorrow.

Extremely rare that I make two plays on the same game but I just follow the value.  Even money for the two most scoring-involved teams in the league to go over 5.5, and Chicago in regulation to make it a reasonable price!  As always BOL

Both bets lose -$400

For anyone keeping track that's 0-2 on totals bets, 0-2 on regulation bets (both games to OT and opposite side), 8-2 on moneyline bets.  Have to stick to what I do best like I said in my opening post.

Boston is struggling with injuries in net prompting them to call up PK's little brother Malcolm Subban from Providence.  It's been a tough start to the year for him down in the A, 4.50 GAA and .846 sv% in 4 starts, also being pulled early twice.  Sometimes in these situations when you see a struggling goalie get the call-up and think things will be even worse for him in the big league, it's actually the opposite as they benefit from an increased defensive structure and the team making a more concerted effort to protect him.  However I have reason to believe the young Subban is actually struggling with confidence issues (I know I know hard to believe in that family) and the prospect of dropping another notch down the depth chart in the Bruins organization (despite the call-up).  This, combined with a more offensively-minded Wild team this year thirsty for their first road win, I think will spell trouble for the Bruins especially if Minnesota can score a couple early.  Bruins also without big off-season acquisition David Backes tonight.

Toronto ML, 2.20/+120 (sportsinteraction)

People might think I'm crazy with this pick but the Leafs have been in every game this year, even if they are only 1-4 and blowing leads.  Three of those 4 losses have been in OT or SO and the other a 1 goal loss to Minnesota (yes a blown lead in that one too).  Babcock was visibly irritated in front of the Toronto media today answering questions about the leads and goaltending, and I have to think a coach of his calibre will remedy that situation as much as he can with a young team.  To even be in the position to blow the lead means you have to have it first and the Leafs have certainly shown that they can score, averaging 3.5 goals/game so far.  I played the angle of the "worse of 2 struggling goaltenders" last night in Chicago and got burned but I'll go back to it tonight...Ben Bishop in net for TB and he is one of the few goalies that has been worse than Freddy A to start the year.  The prevailing tending situation in Tampa (trade rumours, expansion draft, etc.) could be messing with his head a little and he could be in for another rough ride tonight against an improved young Leafs team that played the Lightning tough all last year even when they were cannon-fodder (Leafs went only 1-4 but 3 losses were 1 goal).

Columbus ML, 2.35/+135 (sportsinteraction)

I've made money going against the Blue Jackets this year, and also made money on them against the Blackhawks last Friday night.  After their unconventional schedule to open the season they seem to have gotten into a bit of a groove after that win vs. Chicago, backing it up with another 3-0 win the next night vs. Dallas.  Sergei Bobrovsky playing at a high level is nothing but good news for this franchise as he has shown he can be Vezina calibre.  On the other hand, the Kings have now won 2 straight behind the hands of Peter Budaj, who despite the wins has less than average stats (.889).  I think this another clear example of a team elevating their play to protect a perceived weakness in the net but I don't think this protection can last forever.  Although it's still early in the season, Columbus has a clear edge in both special teams units and I think this will be the difference maker tonight.  Great value at +135!

BOL everyone!

Minnesota $200 x 1.83 = $366.67

Toronto -$200

Columbus -$200

Montreal ML, 2.02/+102 (bookmaker)

The Habs are on the road tonight in Brooklyn to take on the Islanders.  Much like last year Montreal has begun the season guns blazing with only 1 loss (in OT) out of their 6 games, good for 1st in the NHL, and a +13 goal differential (almost twice as good as the next best in the league at +7).  How can you not be confident with Carey Price standing behind you?  However, it won't be Price in goal tonight as the is being rested ahead of an important divisional matchup vs. Tampa Bay tomorrow night.  Backup Al Montoya will get the start but looking at the numbers so far he's at the top of his game as well and the Habs won't be giving up much as Montoya has only allowed 4 goals on 105 shots faced over 3 games.  Down at the other end will be Greiss who's allowed 5 goals on about half as many shots (57), and while he shouldn't be a concern tonight for the Islanders either, I would still give a slight edge to Montreal.  The Islanders also have a key divisional matchup tomorrow night vs. Pittsburgh so this is basically a wash as both teams might be looking slightly ahead.

In 3 games vs. the Islanders last season the Habs went 3-0, winning by at least 2 goals in each game, so the islanders are clearly a team they are comfortable playing.  All 3 games took place in November last year when the Habs were on fire before the Price injury caused the wheels to fall off.  As they've started the season at a similar pace again I'm going to roll with Montreal at a little + money while they're hot!  BOL