Another year older...and hopefully wiser!

A little background, I grew up playing and watching hockey since before I can even remember.  I've always had a strong interest in math, stocks, and value, and began trying to pick games from about the age of 17 (I'm 30 now).  I follow pretty much any and all sports and even make a few picks in others just to have a bit of action, but for me hockey's just my jam.  I'd like to think I know the teams, the players, the situations, the nuances of the game...I just love it all!

About my picks and philosophy, I generally do "ok" overall.  I've noticed the last few seasons I usually start out quite well the first month of the season (knock on wood) with pretty good reads on teams, and then getting into to November turns into a bit of a slump.  Probably the oddsmakers get a better feel, adjust the lines, and it takes me a little while to re-adjust myself to their adjustments (could I say "adjust" a few more times lol).  Getting into December around the quarter mark of the season when teams have each played around 20 games I started working on a system last year and have quite a bit of data so I'm excited to see what I can do with that this season.  Then come playoffs is money time for me...I seem to be quite successful and have a knack for figuring out how series' will go.  I have usually also built myself a mildly complex web of Cup/Conf. futures bets that I manage to hedge out of in profitable ways.  But for the regular season at least, that's where I'm hoping a focus on selectiveness rather than forcing a play or playing too many "leans" just for the action, will lead to a strong return.

A few general specifics (oxymoron I know):

-I will probably only play about 5 games per week depending.

-I use 3 sports books (Bookmaker, bet365, Sportsinteraction) where my lines will come from.

-I usually use decimal odds for math purposes but will try to include both as I know most others use +/-.

-I bet $200 straight per game no matter +/- odds.

-most of my picks will be ML.  My philosophy is that winning the game is the only thing the team is actually trying to do, and will try to accomplish, so don't fight it.  With that said I won't discriminate from a total, PL, regulation bet, team total if I feel there is value to be had.

-if I lose an "official" play I won't come on here claiming I had 2 other "top secret personal" plays that I won to make it a profitable night!

Sorry for the long intro, props if you made it all the way through.  Most of all, hope it's an enjoyable and prosperous season for all!

Ottawa ML, 1.80/-125 (Sportsinteraction)

It's opening night, a lot of unknowns out there, but to me this is the best play.  I feel like Ottawa has a lot more pieces in place and new coach Guy Boucher is very structured which will only help this team.  I am a Leafs fan and like what they're doing and the direction they're going but their back-end really concerns me.  Reilly is good and still young enough to keep getting better, but not a true #1 D yet for me.  Gardiner by now, what you see is what you get...decent and average.  And while I want to be optimistic about D 3 thru 6, the Leafs are spending a grand total of $5.625 mil on Hunwick, Zaitsev, Marincin, and Polak, which unfortunately I just don't think will cut it.

Not putting too much stock in preseason, the Leafs went 2-6, and while Ottawa didn't set the world on fire either going 3-4, they did beat the Leafs both times they played.  Also, Freddie Andersen had absolutely abysmal stats with a 4.18 GAA, and .841 sv% on 69 shots.  Again, might not mean anything but also might mean he will take a bit of time to warm-up to playing with his new team.  Love the Leafs, but I'll back Ottawa in this one.

Season long bets:

San Jose (Stanley Cup), 19.00/+1800 (bookmaker) $100

Montreal (win division), 7.50/+650 (bet365) $150

Carolina (over 78.5 points), 1.90/-110 (bookmaker) $1000

Pittsburgh (over 102.5 points), 1.86/-116 (bookmaker) $500

Auston Matthews (most points out of him, Laine, Puljujarvi), 2.05/+105 (sportsinteraction) $73.80 (lame max. limit lol)

If it's not too much trouble, could you post all of your picks on Twitter as well? And if so, what would your handle be? 

Thanks!

BOL 

Yeah it's the same concept with trying to cover spreads in football...at the end of the day the coach/team is going to make decisions and play to win the game, not cover.  How many times have we seen a team go into the 3rd period up 2 and totally carrying the play the first 2 periods, only to shift gears, sit on the lead, try to grind out the last 20 mins., and end up giving up a goal or all of the lead.  The only saving grace in hockey is that if your still up 1 near the end you'll at least get a shot at an empty netter if you're trying to cover the -1.5.

BOL to you too man!

Also a barn-burner going on to open Edmonton's new arena!

Great start to the year!

New Jersey ML, 2.25/+125 (bet365)

This won't be your father's Devils team this year, the same old team that changed the game (probably for the worse) defensively in the mid 90's.  Sure they were last in the league in scoring last season but they bring in 5.5 new additions up front to start the year, most notably Taylor Hall in that blockbuster deal during the craziest half hour of off ice transactions in NHL history.  The 0.5 is for Devante Smith-Pelley who was only with the Devils for the last couple months last year after a deadline deal.  Also let's not forget a healthy Mike Cammalleri (fingers crossed) who was only in the lineup for half the games a year ago.  At the helm will be 2nd year NHL coach John Hynes who has the full confidence of Ray Shero who knows him well from his success with Wilkes-Barre and brought him over from the Pittsburgh system.  He's a young coach who relates well to the players and knows all the right buttons to push to play an up-tempo attacking style now that they have the horses to do so, without getting reckless on the defensive side of things.  And as always they have a great insurance policy between the pipes if things go awry with Cory Schneider in the prime of his career.

I was pretty high on the Panthers last year and still am.  I like their roster...when they are all in it.  Two key injuries to Huberdeau and Bjugstad to begin the year I think will expose their lack of depth on the 3rd and 4th lines.  

I just feel like the Devils will surprise some people this year and there will be value available on them early in the season.

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/nhlers-twitter-reactions-to-matthews-historic-night%7E971266

I was wrong about the line move...it's actually gone 10 points in the other direction.  Still like the pick but obviously try to get the best # you can!

Sluggish start to the year but the hockey's been top notch!  A couple of OT games which become pretty much coin flip when it boils down...won one, lost one which is pretty much what you can expect.  It's a long season.

Nothing for me tonight, already eyeing up a couple games tomorrow!  TGIF ladies and gents!

Looking to get back in the win column!

San Jose ML, 1.77/-130 (sportsinteraction)

No need to overthink this one, better goaltending, better D, better group of forwards...San Jose is simply the better team all-around.  They're off to a 1-0 start, meanwhile Columbus laid a total egg in their opener.  The Blue Jackets came storming out of the gates to a 2-0 lead after the 1st period against Boston only to fizzle out the rest of the way, losing 6-3 with all the damage being done by one line for the Bruins.  San Jose has a very well-balanced top 3 lines that will be able to come after Columbus in waves.  I had high hopes for Bobrovsky aka BoboCop this year (not just because my keeper pool fantasy season depends on it haha), especially after seeing how he performed for Russia at both the World Championships last spring and the recent World Cup.  He has the ability to steal games but has only played inspired hockey the past couple years when Putin is watching it seems.  He'll need to prove he can do the same again in Columbus before I can back him.

I would normally be a tad reluctant to lay a bit of juice like this on the road, but last years Cup finalist hold the unique distinction of being absolute road warriors while having a losing home record at the same time.  

 Fun facts:

-San Jose was actually the only playoff team last year to play below .500 at home (18-20-3).

-The other 15 playoff teams combined winning % at home was .666 (seriously I can't make this stuff up...hope nobody here is overly religious).

-San Jose had #1 road record in the league at 28-10-3 (.720).

Icing pretty much the same roster as last year with only 2 new additions, I see no reason why they won't have similar success on the road this year as well.  Taking San Jose to get back on track!

Also looking at another game or two, just waiting on some gameday info to either pull the trigger or not...will update tomorrow.