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An NHL Playoff Approach that has been Gold for years

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The lion and the tiger may be more powerful, but the wolf doesn't perform in the circus.
 
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Posted: #2
GL PB and thxs
 
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Hey PB, good stuff and I would definitely agree with this angle as well.  Just curious though where you get your numbers or how you're calculating winning percentage.

I believe the conventional way is basically points earned divided by the number of potential points.  By this method I have Ottawa (22-17-2) at .561, multi-way tie for 9th out of playoff teams road records.  The worst is Nashville (17-20-4) at .463.  But I also personally think that method is crap as it includes the "loser point" which only serves to pad a team's record.  As a straight up function of wins and losses (which is really all that matters in the playoffs) I have Ottawa at 22-19 and a 5-way tie for 5th best in the league.  In fact a better record than Boston at 21-20, even though Boston's conventional winning percentage would be technically better.  Not saying I think this means Ottawa beats Boston, just my own hot take on records/win %'s.
 
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The lion and the tiger may be more powerful, but the wolf doesn't perform in the circus.
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #5
Sounds great PB, 

Good thing the Sens have home ice advantage




 
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Posted: #6
Thanks for that reference PB.

Sharks banged up too, I like the Oilers as well.
 
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Posted: #7
GL my friend
 
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Posted: #8

Great read.

Thanks a lot and have a good playoffs!

 
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Posted: #9
Thanks for sharing PB..miss you be around. Your insight and banter have always been useful. 

Those Who do not learn from History, are doomed to repeat it
 
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Hawks probably won't lose in the first round again, but the west was weak so it is possible.  It is just off my radar.  If I had to predict the Hawks playoffs I would say a Stanley Cup finals loss to a strong Eastern team.  

You playoff theory is solid as a rock I am sure!


Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
 
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The lion and the tiger may be more powerful, but the wolf doesn't perform in the circus.
 
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The lion and the tiger may be more powerful, but the wolf doesn't perform in the circus.
 
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Best of Luck on all your plays on the Playoffs and thanks for your input

                                

 
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The lion and the tiger may be more powerful, but the wolf doesn't perform in the circus.
 
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Posted: #15
GOOD breakdown, P_B. have a profitable playoffs. with the H_W's Wild and esp Dubnyk's recent problems, I think wheaty's Blues have decent chance to upset. also really do NOT trust Vito's Rangers vs the Habs with Price in goal. REALLY like the BJ's with Bobrovsky vs a banged up Penguins team
 
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The lion and the tiger may be more powerful, but the wolf doesn't perform in the circus.
 
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Posted: #17
Great insight Polar_Bear, good luck in the playoffs 
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Polar_Bear:

Well well well.....And the legend himself makes an appearance. Ya I certainly could not bring myself to go against your boys spottie but I do think they will have their hands full and I want nothing to do with that series. Great to you see you bud. I was going to message you in the next couple days to discuss some of this so look for it


In my opinion as in my thread the boys up  north of the border are going to stand up and make some noise.  Those that qualified of course.  The East is loaded and I expect some nice upsets and quality hockey.  As far as the Preds they ever win?  I just don't see it again. 

Hawks strong?  Nope not at all I see Minny beating St. Louis, yea I know the Blue notes have been making a nice run.  I just see the Wild taking this and giving my Hawks fits in round 2.  The Wild upset in round 2 is very possible as I see it.

Flames  and Oilers would be an awesome round 2 match up. Both coming in off momentum, not just a round one qualification. 

I really feel strongly about the dogs.  I don't dabble with the juice of playing the +1.5 lines but I may dabble with making my own +1 lines.

Bottom line lets make some coins
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
 
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Flames  and Oilers would be an awesome round 2 match up. Both coming in off momentum, not just a round one qualification.

HOW in the NAME of Lanny McDonald are the Flames gonna BEAT the DUCKS in a 7 games series where the Ducks have home ice games 1 & 2, 5 and 7 ???. Calgary has not WON in Anaheim since Jarome Iginla was on the Flames roster
 
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Quote Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:

Flames  and Oilers would be an awesome round 2 match up. Both coming in off momentum, not just a round one qualification.

HOW in the NAME of Lanny McDonald are the Flames gonna BEAT the DUCKS in a 7 games series where the Ducks have home ice games 1 & 2, 5 and 7 ???. Calgary has not WON in Anaheim since Jarome Iginla was on the Flames roster



I am not loading up on the predictions I made.  I am riding a lot of dogs but more of a game by game approach.  I did bet the series but not big.  I just can't see all the same teams again and the great white north teams getting stiffed again. My opinion is there are going to be some upsets and I am looking to take advantage.  We will see how it plays out.

As far as the Flames and Ducks.  Flames showed me they can do it with their 17-4 run earlier this year.  Elliott plays well and he can steal it.  If the Flames win 2 games I will make cash even if i lose the series bet.  Take my predictions with a grain of salt but that is what i like.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
 
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The lion and the tiger may be more powerful, but the wolf doesn't perform in the circus.
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by Polar_Bear:

Spottie I concur buddy, I see that series being a real dogfight. 



Lets win PB.

I am keying on these squads to get 2 wins in their series. 

key series for me :
Flames get 2 wins
Wild 2 wins
Habs 2 wins
Hawks 2 wins
B Jackets 2 wins
Oilers 2 wins
and I want to pull the trigger on the Leafs but I am a little bit toff by the youth and inexperience so  will watch game 1.  I also went with the Habs instead of the Rags.  Coaching change has me on board there.



Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
 
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The lion and the tiger may be more powerful, but the wolf doesn't perform in the circus.
 
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The lion and the tiger may be more powerful, but the wolf doesn't perform in the circus.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by Polar_Bear:

I have the Rangers going on a big run. The first series may well be the one that bites them but if they can make it by the habs i'm looking for them to make a run. I think they are a super complete team, never have weak players on the ice, incredible balance, six solid defencemen, two great goalies. Most of them just went to the finals a few seasons ago, the coach has been to two finals and they are the best road team in the league and will be starting all their series' on the road. Really love this team. I have them winning the Cup this year.


Damnnnn!  My first glance at this series I was on board then I filpped. 

I love your comments about the Rags and you are right on,  Raanta can hold the fort as well, I have seen him enough being an ex Hawk.   Series probably starts 1 and 1 so plenty of time for me to adjust. 

Like I already said I feel the East is loaded so I could see either of these squads sending the Caps home.  I am not going to be right on all my series predictions so knowing you are committed on the Rags is a help to me.

Best to you PB Lets get lucky and win our bets


Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
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