Yanasaur Week 4 Props and Plays

I dont normally put in NFL bets this early, but this number is nuts. 

MIA +11 - Minnesota has 0 business laying double digits to anyone. This is just an auto play. Especially considering the total is only 39. Basically they are telling you Minnesota wins 27-13

Also, im a bit confused at why Indy is laying 3.5 in washington. Something is strange about that one though like indy goes in and blows them out somehow but im surprised at the line

Yeah; that line is way out of line -- stood out to me too and got on it for early. I only got +10.5 but doubt it lands on 11 anyways

Nice early post 

@MatthewJL46

Added:

Darnell Washington o15.5 rec yds - Browns looking very susceptible to the TE position. I like Freirmuth here too, but 15.5 on Washington is sounding better than 29.5 on Pat. Rodgers loves this guy and Rodgers is having a lot of trouble getting the ball downfield. Browns just gave up 11 for 128 to Panther TEs, and little to their WRs. They also gave up 5 for 38 to Cade Otton who led Tampa in receptions the week before. Covering the TE is the Browns weakness

Also o24.5 +175, and o39.5 +425

Game is in London so there is that. Apparently some power ratings have Colts 3 pts better than Commanders on neutral field 

@Digitalkarma

 I confess I actually didnt realize it was the London game when I was going through everything. I still think its high but only .5 to 1 pt high so its not a play anyway

Added:

ARI -6.5 +195 - It's an early start for west coast team which isn't ideal but this Cardinals team is feisty. The offense can put up a lot of points. They finally unleashed Jeremiah love who looks awesome. I think the Cards will control this game with the run and win pretty easily 

Using two different models I get

Was -0.38

Ind -2.33

I’m all over Washington this week. So far my favorite play. 3.5 -110 is too good to pass up imo. NFL is certainly week to week but just for hahas let’s look at the Colts last three games:

Defense gets lit up by Baltimore 

Defense gives up 382 yds to Mahomes and another 150 on the ground 

Defense appears to play better against a depleted Houston offense with a QB who looks completely lost 80% of the time 

With 3 interceptions and 3 fumbles so far this year, does Daniel Jones remind you a little of NYG Danny Dimes??

Now they face a Washington team with Mariota who’s playing efficiently, has zero turnovers, and knows the system very well. At this point Washington basically has two starting quarterbacks with one who’s injured on a regular basis. 

Seems like a trap line and I hope I’m not scratching my head on this one on Monday morning. But I’m biting. 

GL Yanasaur

@brn2loslive2win

 Yea agree with everything you said

Added: 

Tyler Warren o23.5 1st H rec yds - Warren oddly often does most of his work in the first half. Last week Seattle was able to get a lot of production from their TEs. Ferguson had 2 TDs for Dallas the week before, and in week 1 Goedert went off for 77 yds and 2 TDs also. I think Indy will target Warren early and often 

Tyler Warren TD +160

Tyler Warren 1st TD +800

I’ve always been a Daniel’s hater, but I really lean colts here, Washington defense is awful, and mariota hasn’t turned the ball over this year because he’s only played one game. Washington defense is BAD, highest opponent qb passer rating in the league, and the colts have a fantastic RB on top of that. 

@puds

 I get it. Not saying Washington is a good team. For some reason I’ve always thought Mariota was underrated so maybe I’m a little biased. But a few bone headed mistakes by jones and a few nice plays by mclaurin and we end up with a last minute field goal to win? I’ll take the 3.5 points because I think it’s a touch too high. And just to put my tin foil hat on full display, the league would like nothing more than an exciting game for the English fans to see in person. Overtime maybe? Refs help keep it close? Who knows…

@brn2loslive2win

 Hahaha very true. Best of luck my man. To be clear I probably won’t play the colts here - spooky October is always wild 

my fantasy teams love these plays  go get em Yana 

Added:

Bhayshul Tuten o55.5 rush yds - He looks great running the ball. Cincy just got absolutely gashed by Jaylen Warren for over 100 on 17 carries. I think Jacksonville will be running a lot and look to keep Burrow off the field. Cincy also has a pretty solid pass rush and I dont think hes going to want Lawrence to be throwing a ton here

Added:

Marvin Harrison TD +375  - Marvin has been forgotten about in this offense. He runs around all game for no reason other than to draw coverage away from Michael Wilson and Trey McBride. And then when you least expect it he scores on a jump ball amazing catch. The Giants bad secondary is the perfect team for him to do that against.