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Would anyone have taken a safety when the Colts punted at the 2 min warning?

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Legend
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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by jennado:

No way - not when a FG would beat you.  Sproles is a good returner, and averaged almost 25yds per return.  A free kick from the 20yd line means the punt (based on his punts all night) goes to about the 20/25yd line, and a 25yd return puts them close to midfield.  two first downs against that weak soft Cover 2, and Kaedding is kicking a FG to win the game. 

You are making incorrect assumptions about a free kick.

Think about it - YOU ARE FORGETTING THAT ON A PUNT THE PUNTER STANDS 15 YARDS BEHIND THE LINE OF SCRIMMAGE. 

On a free kick, the punter is at the 20, so it is like punting from the 35....

And also - the coverage team has no blockers etc.....

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Posted: #27
Colts were going to LOSE tonight no matter what!!!!
 
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Posted: #28
Thats what I would have done but the punter managed to get off a very good punt and the Colts Swiss Cheese defense wouldn't have made a difference.  I'm sure the zebras would have given the Chargers three first downs on penalties.   Unbelievable.  Atleast the FG would have won the game and saved Colts defense some embarassment.
 
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Posted: #29
Nope, you are giving them a chance to win the game - instead of driving for a field goal to tie.
 
That might sound overly simplistic, but even punting from the 1, sure wouldn't be wanting to give SD back the ball with a chance to beat me.
 
Would have been a hell of a call though, whatever the outcome.
 
 
 
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Posted: #30
Hey - V - great thread. My Dad Coached High School ball and play Div II in College and we had a big arguement on this.

We TIVO';ed the gamke until we worked out the math and it took 2 beers each before my wife came downstairs.

....he said take the safety...


 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by 808Tunda:

when it was 3rd and 2 dumb ass dungy should have called a running play.  worst case you punt from the 8 yard line not the 2.  anyways colts loss dont matter anymore im pissed

they should have also left a running back in the backfield with Manning...he was a sitting duck!

 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Situation:
 
Colts up 3
2 minute warning
Colts punting from the 1 yard line
SD no timeouts
 
I think the safety has to be considered.
 
If you take a safety, you are up by 1 and you have to kick from your 20 yard line.  If the chargers had an average return, they would have the ball at their own 33 yard line with about 1.45 and no timeouts down 1.
 
I actually think it is about 60/40 to take the safety.
 
Anyone?
 

I thought about the safety when that situation came up during the game. Tough call. My feeling at the time was to punt the ball. Indi's D had been bending but not breaking and making stops on big downs when they needed it. My thinking was that if I was the colts I would try to hold to  a FG and either have enough time left with 3 TO's to win the game in regulation or OT. If you take the safety, you run the risk of losing the game on a FG in regulation, and give the MVP no chance of getting back on the field.

Of course the more important question is would you have called heads or tails?

 
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Posted: #33
if it was the SD punter, yes.  Hunter Smith, no.  Maybe I'm wrong but he had some really short punts tonight, right?  Maybe I'm wrong because i was seeing that kid from SD punt like Ray Guy...
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by PokerBroker:

Nope, you are giving them a chance to win the game - instead of driving for a field goal to tie.
 
That might sound overly simplistic, but even punting from the 1, sure wouldn't be wanting to give SD back the ball with a chance to beat me.
 
Would have been a hell of a call though, whatever the outcome.
 
 

OK - but what if there was:

1.30 left?

1 minute left?

30 secs left?

At some point it makes sense - what point is that?

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Posted: #35
Does it matter anymore ?
 
Covers Referee
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Posted: #36
Taking the safety is quite common in the CFL. Teams do it all the time.
 
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Posted: #37
Of course it has to make sense at some point, like buying a lottery ticket when it hits 14 million. Too much time left. It's like in hockey when do you pull the goaltender.
 
Just about at the minute mark would be the answer to both my questions. I love mind-plays like this, and thinking outside the box.
 
Look at in reverse maybe. 10 seconds, of course you do. 30 seconds, yes. Now get up to that minute mark, then it gets tricky.
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by Hoopskingo:

Does it matter anymore ?


To you maybe !

But we are discussing. What is your point?
 
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Posted: #39
I would not consider that.  Why would you put yourself in the position of where a fg beats you?  Granted, you have to worry about a blocked punt but I think you take your chances that fg doesn't beat you....Just my opinion.
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by PokerBroker:

Of course it has to make sense at some point, like buying a lottery ticket when it hits 14 million. Too much time left. It's like in hockey when do you pull the goaltender.
 
Just about at the minute mark would be the answer to both my questions. I love mind-plays like this, and thinking outside the box.
 
Look at in reverse maybe. 10 seconds, of course you do. 30 seconds, yes. Now get up to that minute mark, then it gets tricky.

I agree....

This is not a "no-brainer"....

At 1 minute I do it for sure.

At 2 minutes, like I said, I think it is about 60% to do it.

I just think that with no timeouts I would rather have SD need 35 yards to beat me, than to have no timeouts with SD at my 40 up by 3....

Not sure - but thats how I figure it....

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Posted: #41
No, that isn't an option.  Your up by 3, so best case a game-tying field goal.  But to give up 2, to be up by 1, worst case San Diego drives and kicks game-winning fg because of your safety.
 
 
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Posted: #42
But, there has to be some point in time where the play is a saw-off. Wonder when that is? ( when 'Hound changes his Leona avatar? ) Any math boys in the room?
 
 
 
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Posted: #43
Taking the safety: Would have been quite possibly the worst call I have ever seen. Basically, rather than punting it and saying "here, try and send this game into OT"....you are saying...."heres 2 pts...we get a longer punt and lets see if you can end our season right now"

Relying on special teams to tackle the punt-returner? No way. As it turned out, the colts nailed a 63 yard punt only for it to get returned to mid-field easily. If the Colts had taken the safety and lost by 1 pt in regulation, this forum would be flooded with people trashing Dungy (much worse than what we are already seeing).
 
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Posted: #44
i think if it was less than a minute yes. this is a real tough call, i think if you're the ravens its a good choice, because your defense is so good. i also think you have to factor that sproles is so good in the return game i'd expect closer to the 40 than the 33. i think its very situational depending on game circumstances (times, weather, any other variables) and the team/punter.
 
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Posted: #45
I would take the safety with anything less than 1 min on the clock.
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by Irish08:

Taking the safety: Would have been quite possibly the worst call I have ever seen. Basically, rather than punting it and saying "here, try and send this game into OT"....you are saying...."heres 2 pts...we get a longer punt and lets see if you can end our season right now"

Relying on special teams to tackle the punt-returner? No way. As it turned out, the colts nailed a 63 yard punt only for it to get returned to mid-field easily. If the Colts had taken the safety and lost by 1 pt in regulation, this forum would be flooded with people trashing Dungy (much worse than what we are already seeing).

OK, so I ask you the same question:

What if there was 1.30 on the clock?

1 minute?

30 seconds?

At some point it makes sense - so where is that point?

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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

 
I actually think it is about 60/40 to take the safety.
 
 
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Posted: #48

Quote Originally Posted by Irish08:

I would take the safety with anything less than 1 min on the clock.

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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

You are making incorrect assumptions about a free kick.

Think about it - YOU ARE FORGETTING THAT ON A PUNT THE PUNTER STANDS 15 YARDS BEHIND THE LINE OF SCRIMMAGE. 

On a free kick, the punter is at the 20, so it is like punting from the 35....

And also - the coverage team has no blockers etc.....

On a free kicker, the defenders cant leave the line of scrimmage until the ball is kicked.  So, unlike a real punt, you dont have gunners that get to start a sec or two before the ball is actually kicked.  Plus, the other team will block like a kickoff, so the advantage is for the returners.  Having the punter at the line of scrimmage with the defenders is a disadvantage compared to a regular punt.  The punt team is losing the 15yd head start on the coverage.  So, the defenders have to run a longer distance. 

No way do you take a safety & leave SD that much time to get a couple first downs and kick a FG to BEAT you. 

 
 
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This isn't the California Penal League, we wear caps and sleeves at this level, son.
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