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Why I like the Jets +9

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Pasteur

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Posts: 2938

Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 12:41 PM ET #26

Quote Originally Posted by potvin:

i was kind of thinking the same,but still not commited. how ever if you sold cars pasteur, i would be driving away right now. good luck!

LOL! BOL with whatever you decide sir

jamilovesjason

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Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 12:41 PM ET #27

jets +10 i bought a point...hit a key number

Pasteur

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Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 12:44 PM ET #28

Quote Originally Posted by NOmoose:

So your saying the texans won't be fired up for a prime time game? Regardless of who they are playing..

If I'm not mistaken I think the Texans are something like 0-4-1 ATS on MNF. They might be fired up, but Schaub and company to date have struggled in the spotlight.

Pasteur

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Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 12:47 PM ET #29

Quote Originally Posted by jamilovesjason:

jets +10 i bought a point...hit a key number

That key number is precisely why I think Vegas tipped their hand and the Jets are the right side. If the spread opened at 10 points or more, value bettors would be all over the Jets getting double digits, and even though the public would still be on Texas, it wouldn't be by a landslide. By opening up the line at 9, sports-books are opening themselves up to a landslide public wager on the Texans, and on a single game like MNF, they wouldn't do that without reason. I'm letting them cap the game for me. BOL all!

ShakeAndBake12

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Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 0

Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 1:14 PM ET #30

J E T S....Jets,Jets,Jets

cashin

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Posts: 17210

Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 2:12 PM ET #31

A no play for me. I've got the Texans -1 & -2 to complete a 4 & 5 tm teaser & just lettin 'em come in - feel pretty confident they win by at least a fg. Razor & Pasteur have brought up some good aspects supporting a Jets cover in terms of non-matchup stuff - "desperate wounded animal" angle, home dog on MNF after a bad loss, Hou strugglin in prime time in the past, etc - I just can't buy it. Without Holmes, Revis, etc, the Jets are too outmatched all over the field, especially in the trenches on both sides of the ball which tends to be huge in the 2nd half. No doubt the Jets can cover, but they need to take long ball shots early (Hou can be vulnerable on the deep ball) & mix in Tebow regularly on designated runs & throws outa the pocket & hope to get up early cuz I don't see 'em sustaining any long drives. Turnover edge is also much more likely to go to the Texans imo.

Lean to a Hou cover at anything under 10. Let's say they're only up by 7 or 10 early in the 3rd ( very likely if not more) - with their aggressive D & balanced/diversified offense, who do you think would be more likely to get the cover? Should be interesting & GL to all. Like the Texans by 10-17...

flemdog33

Prospect

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Posts: 6

Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 2:47 PM ET #32

Texans have one of the best, if not the best, RB in football versus a Jets defense which is allowing 172 yards a game on the ground. Vice versa the Jets have shown they have zero run game versus a stellar Texans run defense. Does anyone trust Sanchez in 3rd and long all night with a bunch of back-up WR? I don't. Throw in Revis being out which opens up Andre Johnson to have a big game tonight. My prediction. Foster 120 yards and 2 TD's. Andre Johnson 100 yards and a TD. Texans win 34-10.

BigFrank420

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Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 2:51 PM ET #33

"They're inducing action on the Texans side of the wagering line"

Disagree but GL

WingerWins

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Posts: 203

Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 2:59 PM ET #34

you are smoking crack... the fucking jets!? your playing the best team in the league

fras

Prospect

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Posts: 145

Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 3:18 PM ET #35

Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:

If you showed a 10 year-old street hustler in Yemen a picture of Mark Sanchez, he'd probably wrinkle his nose in disgust and spit in the photo's general direction.

The world knows the Jets screwed the proverbial pooch last week. The world knows they lost Revis and Holmes. The world knows the Texans are one of the darlings of the NFL so far (despite their cake schedule, and that's noteworthy). It's David vs. Goliath and David left his sling shot at home.

So pretend you're an odds maker for this game. You know exactly what public perception is, and you know exactly what your computer algorithms are telling you the outcome of the game is likely to be, give or take a margin of error. And they set the line at -9, a single digit number. They know damn well who the public will bet on with that spread.

They're inducing action on the Texans side of the wagering line, on the biggest game of the week. If it wasn't MNF, this line of thinking loses some of it's value. The public has to win sometimes, and the public did pretty well on Sunday. But in my experience, sports-books rarely induce action on the public side of a MNF game, especially if they just paid the public on Sunday night.

This money is on loan, and they'll be collecting payments starting Monday night.

Take the Jets +9 and collect payments with them.

You are right, it does happen, just when you think that team lose by zero, or can not win, comes Monday night, or Thursday night game, you will see how they put up a good show , because they are on national tv, take the Rams, last week, and this week we not only have one, but two teams, The Jets, tonight, and Thursday night, Titans vs Steelers, you think steelers have an easy time , think again, the score can be anything, under or over, which doesn't affect neither , that can be manipulated , but the win or lost does, to a team. BoL.

fras

Prospect

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Posts: 145

Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 3:31 PM ET #36

Quote Originally Posted by WeedKing4:

One thing that does worry me about the Texans and the over though, is that 60% of the public is on both those. They aren't right a lot of the time lol

Unless you buy moneyline bet, There you go, you are right, What ever the public bets are mostly the opposite outcome,

Take for example Cleveland vs Baltimore, public on Baltimore , and wins, but who covers? Cleveland and Cleveland pays,

malkin

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Posts: 4297

Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 3:37 PM ET #37

JETS ARE HOUSE MONEY - NUFF SAID

- The Saints -3.5 were HOUSE MONEY last night

Dark_Tonio

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Posts: 383

Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 4:54 PM ET #38

I am new to the sight . Running 50% right now for last two weeks. I split yesterday had PITT, SKINS, TIGERS, AND SAINTS. I am not looking to overanalyze the game however, the line smells TRAP.

Dark_Tonio

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Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 4:57 PM ET #39

Here's what we know about the NFL up to this year. Home team covers about 60 % of the games. Two questions to ask ,1) in the trenches does the visiting team have a better defense than the home team? 2) Does the visiting team have a GREAT running game??

Dark_Tonio

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Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 5:01 PM ET #40

My answer to these questions, from a forty inner fan. The 200 yards the niners got on sunday were inflated. The jets defense is OVERRATED. However at home 9 points is a tough NUT for any NFL TEAM , THIS ISNT COLLEGE FOOTBALL.

Dark_Tonio

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Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 5:04 PM ET #41

Texans running game is not a slow bruising kind of running that the niners have, with big 2 tight end plays and old trap plays like the niners run. It is easy to lay the 9 in this game however, after careful capping I believe on a MONDAY NIGHT with 9 jets win OUTRIGHT.

redbook1

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Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 5:07 PM ET #42

actually, the 'public' is right 50% of the time.

redbook1

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Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 5:07 PM ET #43

if not 100% of the time.

Pasteur

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Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 5:07 PM ET #44

Quote Originally Posted by BigFrank420:

"They're inducing action on the Texans side of the wagering line"

Disagree but GL

If they wanted action on the Jets don't you think they'd toss a double digit spread out there? Heck, even if they made the spread 1 point different to 10, that's psychologically much different than 9. I can see how people disagree but that's just how I see it. BOL

Dark_Tonio

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Posts: 383

Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 5:08 PM ET #45

One note , speaking with my friend before the line came out I told him I hope I see a number like 7. My question to all here if VEGAS released a NUMBER LIKE 11, 12, 13, OR 14 would anyone lay those numbers?? FOOD FOR THOUGHT - the old school cappers one here know where Im going with this. CASH TIME FOR THE BOOKS there begging you to lay the 9 and take the TEXANS.

Dark_Tonio

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Posts: 383

Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 5:10 PM ET #46

@ PAST GOOD COMMENT

DaddyMoney

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Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 5:11 PM ET #47

The Jets will play tough at home..but the texans have big play threats on the outside..two big plays and the game will be a blowout..bc the fact of the matter is that the jets will have to throw to catch up..and who will they thow to?= Sanchez mutiple ints.=Texans BIG and under.they will coast when they get a 17 point lead.

Dark_Tonio

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Posts: 383

Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 5:12 PM ET #48

This is a trap LINE - JETS TAKE THE POINTS.

bunny651

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Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 5:18 PM ET #49

They opened at +9 -heavy juice for a different reason. GL

abragman

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Posts: 57

Posted: Oct. 8, 2012 - 5:27 PM ET #50

Quote Originally Posted by malkin:

JETS ARE HOUSE MONEY - NUFF SAID

- The Saints -3.5 were HOUSE MONEY last night

You can't be fucking serious.....the Chargers were up 24-14 and PICK 6'ED THE SAINTS (31-14) but a bad call took the points off the board and allowed the Saints to make it a one-score game. Not to mention all the horseshit phantom penalties on the Chargers final drive.

I'm not bitching about losing, there's no place for that in betting money on sports, and certainly I've lucked out on bad calls, but if you think the Saints (who were getting 66% of bets last night) were "house money" your head is literally lodged in your ass and you should consult a doctor.

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